Saturday, 15 December 2018

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DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS

In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait for Updates)

                    

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MF) have been indicating the formation of Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) and of Cyclogenesis since 26 February 2018. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, so far, not stated about any Low Pressure in its regular Weather Bulletin. It is now that the MMS is mentioning about Tropical Disturbance, at a time when the System has already crossed the Tropical Depression status, 65 km/h (35 Knots) as per JTWC. Lateness by the MMS, in keeping pace with International Centres, still continues. Lessons on the principles of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) are still not being learnt.

This Weather System should be baptized as DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm right now. Besides, a Flood Storm as a Twin System is Highly probable. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is the “Wealth-of-the-Nation”.

 Uploaded: 12.39 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center 

JTWC Advisories issued on 01 March 2018 are as follows:

{{{WTXS21 PGTW 011430

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 55.6E TO 15.2S 54.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 55.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011229Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF 94S ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC...

94S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SSTS (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 94S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.}}}

 

Latest and the First Warning/Advisories released by the JTWC indicate that the Tropical Depression has reached Moderate Tropical Storm status with (35 Knots) 65 km/h as Wind Force.

{{{ WARNING 1/JTWC              

 As of 12:00 UTC Mar 02, 2018:

Location: 12.6°S 54.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65k/h)
Gusts: 45 kt(80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Located apprx 370KM NNW of Tromelin island
.}}}                                                                         

 

 Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued a Special Communique at 10.00 am today Friday 02 March 2018. It is now that 94S INVEST is mentioned as a Low Pressure and a Tropical Disturbance. It is noteworthy that ‘Moderate-to Heavy Rains’ with a ‘chance of local flood in risk areas’ are stated. So, a FLOOD STORM too is highly likely to occur, given that the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is prevailing in an enhanced phase.

[[[Special Weather Bulletin issued at 1000 hours on Friday 02 March 2018.


Latest observations from Agalega Meteorological Station and this morning’s satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure evolving in the vicinity of Agalega has intensified into a tropical disturbance. The system is evolving in a very favorable environment and most numerical models are in agreement that it will continue to intensify further to become a moderate tropical storm by Saturday 03 March 2018. It will then be named DUMAZILE.


At 1000 hours this morning, Friday 02 March 2018 the tropical disturbance was centered at about 850 km to the north northwest of Mauritius, that is, near  latitude 13.5 degrees south and 53.6 degrees east. It is expected to move in a general south southwesterly direction at a mean speed of about 12 km/h. On this trajectory, the centre of the system will likely pass at a distance of about 450 km to the west of Mauritius on Sunday evening.


Considering the inherent uncertainty of numerical models, there is a risk that the centre may pass closer to Mauritius.


Weather at Mauritius from Saturday 03 to Tuesday 06 February 2018.


Clouds associated with the tropical disturbance will start influencing local weather as from Saturday 03 March 2018 afternoon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The showers will become widespread, intermittent and heavy with thunderstorms on Sunday 04 March 2018.


Scattered moderate to heavy rain with thunderstorms at times will persist till Tuesday 06 March 2018.


The heavy showers will cause water accumulation in various places with a chance of local flood in risk areas.


Wind will blow from the north east gradually blowing from the north at a speed of about 40-50 km/h with gusts reaching 90 km/h on Sunday evening.


The sea will become very rough with heavy swells as from the weekend.


The situation is being closely monitored. This bulletin will be updated tomorrow,

Saturday 03 March 2018 at about 1000 hours local time.]]]

 

   Updated: 7.04 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

 

Météo-Madagascar issued a Bulletin explaining about Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) on Friday 02 March 2018.

<<<Alerte établie ce Vendredi 02-03-2018

Perturbation Tropicale N°06 à 400 Km au Nord-Est d'Antalaha
Vent moyen : 46 Km/h
Rafales : 50/60 Km/h
Pas d'alerte cyclone à Madagascar
>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnVMba9TZf8

 

Météo-Madagascar has named DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm on Saturday 03 March 2018. Yet, the video of Weather Bulletin mentioned (Perturbation-Tropical) Tropical Disturbance and not Tropical Depression. Watch Video.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tp8N_TEPVEw

 

Shortly, afterwards DUMAZILE intensified into Severe Tropical Storm. The Forecast Track of STS DUMALIZE was released at the same time the Green Alert was upgraded.

<<< Alerte établie ce Samedi 03-03-2018

       Pas d'alerte cyclonique en cours. >>>

North and East of Madagascar were upgraded on Yellow Alert on Sunday 04 March 2018, as follows:

<<< Alerte établie ce Dimanche 04-03-2018

Forte Tempête Tropicale DUMAZILE à 190 Km à l’Est-Nord-Est de Toamasina.
Vent moyen : 100 Km/h
Rafales : 145 Km/h
Déplacement : Ouest-Sud-Ouest à 15 Km/h.
Les bandes nuageuses associées au système affectent les parties Nord et le littoral Est du pays y apportant des fortes pluies accompagnées des rafales temporaires.
>>>

NB:

  • DUMAZILE is Female name provided by Swaziland, which is one of the 14 Member States of the South-West Indian Ocean mandated by the World Meteorological Organization (WM0) and 
  • Météo-Madagascar has skipped the upgrading procedure of the intensifying Low Pressure to Tropical Disturbance to Tropical Depression. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has committed the same blunder, contrary to the WMO Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan.  

Updated: 10.37 pm MONDAY 05 MARCH 2018.   

Météo-Madagascar issued a Blue Alert on Monday 05 March 2018. It indicates that DUMAZILE Tropical Cycloneis moving rapidly away from the Malagasy Territory.  

<<<Alerte établie ce Lundi 05-03-2018

Cyclone Tropical DUMAZILE à 305 Km à l’Est de Mananjary.
Vent moyen : 155 Km/h
Rafales : 220 Km/h
Déplacement : Sud-Est à 20 Km/h.

Alerte bleue: SAVA, ANALANJIROFO, ATSINANANA, les districts de Befandriana Nord, Mandritsara, Port-bergé et Mampikony

Alerte Jaune: Nosy Varika, Mananjary, Manakara, Vohipeno, Farafangana
.>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=54&v=oPGN1FKxHNM

 

<<< Alerte établie ce Mardi 06-03-2018

Cyclone Tropical DUMAZILE à 640 Km à l’Est de Vangaindrano.
Vent moyen :
130 Km/h
Rafales :
185 Km/h
Déplacement : Sud-Est à 20 Km/h.
Alerte cyclone levee.
>>>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhKzIglhHJw 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 060900  

REMARKS:

060900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 54.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM OF THE MSI EYE TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT 28C...

AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 33 FEET.}}}

                                                                                

Keep Watch for Updates.  

 

PKANHYE. 10.12 am WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018.

 

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