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MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (92A INVEST)

Very Rapid Intensification Threatening Directly

Horn of Africa, Socotra, Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

(Final UPDATE below. Pl, be patient. )

    

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Northern Indian Ocean along the Tropic of Cancer is evolving in an enhanced phase. Hardly has SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (17-21 May 2018) made landfall in Northern Somalia and Ethiopia, 92A INVEST has formed since 18 May 2018. This Tropical Disturbance is highly likely to intensify into a Tropical Depression/Deep Depression very rapidly and be named probably today as MEKUNU. Eventually, it is forecast to be upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm very early. The Atmospheric Conditions in the Zone of Arabian Sea reaching 310 Celsius and of the adjoining landmass (Oman) 40-42 degrees Celsius are conducive for the evolution of a Stronger Storm than the previous one. Horn of Africa, Socotra, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia all fall along the JTWC Forecast Track. So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.

No doubt, this will influence the South-West Asian Monsoon whose onset is Predicted, by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to take place earlier than 01 June 2018.

According to the Weather Forecast for Tuesday 22 May 2018 made by Directorate General of Meteorology of the Sultanate of Oman indicates that the Atmospheric Conditions are conducive to welcome the oncoming Severe Cyclonic Storm.

Maximum Humidity in is Muscat-80% and 85% in Salalah.

Maximum Temperature in Buraimi, Nizwa, Adam, Mudhebi, Haima has reached 410 Celsius, while Ibri and Fahud has recorded 42 0 Celsius.

 

Watch LIVEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?

 

 

 

PKANHYE.  Uploaded: 03.33 pm TUESDAY 22 MAY 2018.

India Meteorological Department

India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Southern Asia, mentioned about the Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea on Monday 21 May 2018.

[[[PRESS RELEASE-2 

Time of issue: 1440 hours IST Dated: 21-05-2018

Sub: Low Pressure Area intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Arabian Sea.

Yesterday’s Low Pressure Area over southeast Arabian Sea (AS) intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area (WML) over southwest & adjoining southeast AS at 0530 hours IST of today, the 21st May 2018. It lay as a WML over southwest AS at 0830 hours IST of today, the 21st May 2018. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hrs and further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 48 hrs. It is very likely to move northwestwards towards south Oman – southeast Yemen coasts during next five days. ]]]

IMD has released its Bulletin regarding the Tropical Disturbance (Well-Marked Low Pressure) at 11.30 am today Tuesday 22 May 2018. Mention has been made of further intensification, into Cyclonic Storm today, to Severe Cyclonic Storm tomorrow Wednesday 23 May and subsequent upgrading into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in the afternoon of Thursday 24 May 2018. Besides, the Forecast Track is likely to make landfall in Yemen and Oman Territories.

[[[BULLETIN NO. : 04 (ARB 03/2018)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1130 HOURS IST        DATED: 22.05.2018

Sub: Depression over Southwest Arabian Sea intensified into Deep Depression

The Depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 6 hours and intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 22nd May 2018 over southwest Arabian Sea near latitude 9.20N and longitude 57.20E, about 520 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 930 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and into a severe cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and reach south Oman- southeast Yemen coasts by 26th May, 2018 morning.

22/0830   9.2/57.2    50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION

22/1130   9.5/57.0    55-65 GUSTING TO 75     DEEP DEPRESSION

22/1730   10.0/56.7   65-75 GUSTING TO 85     CYCLONIC STORM

22/2330   10.5/56.5   70-80 GUSTING TO 90     CYCLONIC STORM

23/0530   11.0/56.3   80-90 GUSTING TO 100    CYCLONIC STORM

23/1730   11.8/55.9 100-110 GUSTING TO 120    SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

24/0530   12.6/55.5  110-120 GUSTING TO 130   SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

24/1730   13.4/55.1 120-130 GUSTING TO 140    VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

25/0530   14.4/54.7  130-140 GUSTING TO 150   VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

25/1730  15.5/54.4  140-150 GUSTING TO 160   VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

26/0530  16.7/54.1  150-160 GUSTING TO 170   VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

26/1730  17.9/53.8  90-100 GUSTING TO 110    SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.

Warning:

As the system is expected to move away from Indian coast, no adverse weather is expected along & off west coast of India.

(i) Wind Warning:

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph very likely over southwest Arabian Sea during next 6 hours and gradually increase thereafter becoming gale wind speed of 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by 22nd May evening. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely over westcentral Arabian Sea from 23rd morning onwards. The wind speed will gradually increase over these regions with the increase in intensity of the system during 22nd to 26th May.

(ii) Sea Condition

Sea condition will be very rough over southwest Arabian Sea during next 6 hours and will become high by 22nd evening. Sea condition will become high and then very high over westcentral Arabian Sea from 22nd May evening to 26th May with the intensification of the system.

(iii) Fishermen Warning:

Fishermen are advised not to venture into southwest Arabian Sea till 23rd May and into west-central & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea during 23rd-26th May.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 22nd May 2018.

(Neetha K Gopal) Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi. ]]] 

Updated: 7.06 pm TUESDAY 22 MAY 2018

 

IMD named the Deep Depression as MEKUNU Cyclonic Storm at 23.30 hours this evening Tuesday 2018. Some parameters of intensification have changed, given MEKUNU is Tracking rather rapidly-12 km/h North North-Westwards. 

[[[BULLETIN NO. : 08 (ARB 03/2018)

TIME OF ISSUE: 2330 HOURS IST             DATED: 22.05.2018

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ over Southwest Arabian Sea.

The Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ over southwest Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards with a speed of 12 Kmph during past 06 hours and lay centered at 2030 hrs IST of 22nd May 2018 over southwest Arabian Sea near latitude 10.50N and longitude 56.70E, about 400 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 780 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross south Oman -southeast Yemen coasts as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm between 530E and 550E close to Salalah by 26th May, 2018 morning.

22/2030 10.5/56.7   65-75  GUSTING TO 85   CYCLONIC STORM

22/2330 10.8/56.6   70-80  GUSTING TO 90   CYCLONIC STORM

23/0530 11.0/56.5   80-90  GUSTING TO 100  CYCLONIC STORM

23/1130 11.5/56.4   90-100 GUSTING TO 110  SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

23/1730 12.1/56.4  100-110 GUSTING TO 125  SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

24/0530 13.3/56.0  110-120 GUSTING TO 135  SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

24/1730 14.4/55.5  125-135 GUSTING TO 150  VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

25/0530 15.0/55.1  140-150 GUSTING TO 150   VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

25/1730 15.8/54.6  155-165 GUSTING TO 180  VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

26/0530 16.8/54.1  155-165 GUSTING TO 180  VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

26/1730 17.9/53.6  110-120 GUSTING TO 130  SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

27/0530 19.0/53.0    65-75  GUSTING TO 85   CYCLONIC STORM

27/1730 20.1/52.4    40-50 GUSTING TO 60    DEPRESSION.

Warning:

As the system is expected to move away from Indian coast, no adverse weather is expected along & off west coast of India and Lakshadweep.

(i) Wind Warning:

Gale winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph is prevailing over southwest Arabian Sea. It would gradually increase and become 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph by 24th May morning. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely over westcentral Arabian Sea from 23rd morning onwards. The wind speed will gradually increase over these regions with the increase in intensity of the system during 22nd to 26th May. The maximum wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 180 kmph likely to commence from 25th evening.

(ii) Sea Condition:

Sea condition is high over southwest Arabian Sea and will become very high by 23rd evening. Sea condition is rough to very rough over adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea. It would gradually become high to very high from 23rd morning onwards and phenomenal from 24th evening onwards over Westcentral Arabian Sea.

(iii) Fishermen Warning:

Fishermen are advised not to venture into southwest Arabian Sea till 24th May and into west-central & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea during 23rd-26th May.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 23rd May 2018.

(S.D Kotal) Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi.]]] 

NB: Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand form part of the eight Member States’ Panel which provide names of cyclones. MEKUNU name has been provided by Maldives, while SAGAR was listed by India, which is also the RSMC of this zone.

https://public.wmo.int/en/About-us/FAQs/faqs-tropical-cyclones/tropical-cyclone-naming

 

Updated: 23 WEDNESDAY MAY 2018. 

International Centers

NOAA/CPC.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center mentions in its Weather Forecast dated 15 May 2018 valid for 16-29 May 2018 about Cyclogenesis and Rains:

///TC development (91A) is anticipated (with moderate confidence) near the Horn of Africa during Week-1. This is due in part to the expected proximity and constructive interference of several competing modes of intra-seasonal variability…

During Week-1, a broad area of above-average rainfall (moderate confidence) is forecast for portions of the western Indian Ocean, related to the expected complex interaction between several modes of tropical variability in addition to the TC potential.\\\

 

It is to be noted that Cyclonic Storm SAGAR started as a Low Tropical Disturbance on 14 May 2018 in South-East of Socotra in the South-West of Arabian Sea, adjoining Horn of Africa. It was named on 17 May after intensification and tracked towards Djibouti, Somalia and Ethiopia along which it made landfall on 21 May 2018. 

Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU formed as a Tropical Disturbance on 18 May 2018 at almost the same starting location of SAGAR, i.e. East of Horn of Africa. It has been evolving at a time when SAGAR was still tracking along the Gulf of Aden. MEKUNU seems to be a Tremendous and Very Intensive Cyclone capable of causing lots of Disasters at sea and on land. The Rain Clouds around the System are capable of causing Floods, Landslides and Humanitarian Crisis. 

That is why mentioned has been made above since 22 May, that the populations of Socotra, Somalia, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia be Prepared to face the oncoming Calamities ‘So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.’

 

India Meteorological Department 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned, on 17 May 2018, about Cyclogenesis in the South-West of Arabian Sea for period 18-31 May 2018. In the various Numerical Models which the Scientists consulted, it was concluded that there has been a common agreement, although the Probability was 34-67%. This was released as follows:  

[[[there is a large scale consensus regarding genesis of depression, its intensification into a cyclonic storm and west-northwest/northwestwards movement during 22-27 May.]]]

In fact, a Low Pressure in the forecast zone of South-West Arabian Sea was identified. It intensified into Tropical Disturbance (92A INVEST) as from 18 May 2018. The System evolved very rapidly until it was named by IMD as MEKUNU Cyclonic Storm at 20.30 hours on Tuesday 22 May 2018. The first forecast which was released by IMD mentioned further intensification into Severe Cyclonic Storm at 17.30 hours on 23 May and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm at 17.30 hours on 25

May.

Strikingly, MEKUNU was upgraded about 24 hours earlier than the forecasts of IMD and also of JTWC. As at at 17.15 hours on 23 May, MEKUNU intensified as Very Severe Tropical Storm: Gale winds speed reaching 120-130 Kmph gusting to 145 Kmph is prevailing over southwest and adjoining West Central Arabian Sea”, as per IMD. It was moving Northwards at 11 km/h.

It is moving North-Northwestwards with a speed of 14 Km/h during past 06 hours since 11.30 hours today Thursday 24 May 2018. Furthermore MEKUNU is forecast, since this morning, to intensify further as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and continue as such until whole of 25 May.

 

All these show that the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. It means that the Weather Pattern in whole of Indian Ocean has changed, as stated in earlier article on DUST STORM and on SAGAR. Besides, cyclone formation in this area is rare, but this explanation is upset by SAGAR and MEKUNU and probably during coming months. These also prove that Climate, Weather and Hydrology have bypassed all Forecasts of IMD and of NOAA/CPC. It is highly likely that other Depressions may follow MEKUNU. In addition, the South-West Indian Monsoon System (SWIMS), too, has changed and harsher conditions are Predicted.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center.    

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been very dynamic in issuing its Advisories since 18 May 2018, when MEKUNU was still a Tropical Disturbance. The Warnings which were released consistently indicate a rather rapid evolution of the TD. First Advisories released on 22 May 2018 read as follows:

{{{WTIO31 PGTW 220300

REMARKS: 

220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 57.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES AND A 212324Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS SET HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 211730Z WHICH REVEALED 30-35 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH ONLY 25-30 KNOTS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS...

SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST...

TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12...

THE STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, RETREAT TOWARDS THE EAST AND REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS, ALLOWING TC 02A TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AFTER THROUGH TAU 48. THE TRACK BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND TAU 48 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IN THE ARABIAN SEA AND ANOTHER STR EXTENSION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAUDI PENINSULA...

TC 02A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE OUTFLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTFLOW IMPROVES THEREAFTER AND TC 02A IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72 AT 85 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SALALAH, OMAN AROUND TAU 90...

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST TAUS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO A DRYING OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, REACHING ONLY 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120...

AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE ...ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK... INTO EASTERN YEMEN. THE GALWEM AND COAMPS MODELS ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM INLAND NEAR DUQM, OMAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS...

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, BUT WITHIN THE DENSE CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INCREASING BIFURCATION IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.}}}

 

The latest Advisories, 24 May 2018, of JTWC indicate that VSCS MEKUNU has tracked Northwards at about 11 km/h. It is located approximately 179 nautical miles South South-East of Salalah, Oman and its intensity is at 75 knots (137 km/h). However, further intensification is expected just before making landfall, as the Sea Surface Temperature is still warm-290-300 Celsius. Moreover, VSCS MEKUNU is generating 24 feet High Waves and Rains are also expected to cause Disasters both in Yemen and Oman, as mentioned above.  

{{{ WTIO31 PGTW 241500 

REMARKS: 

241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241132Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EIR, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND LOSS OF AN EYE FEATURE...

TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS TC 02A TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK...

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET.}}}

 

The First Cyclone Warning issued, today Thursday 24 May 2018, by Directorate General of Meteorology of OMAN reads as follows:

///Warning No. (1)

Tropical Cyclone (Mekunu) in Arabian Sea

Day : Thursday Date: 24th May 2018

Category: Tropical Cyclone category (1)

Issuing time: 12 PM

The latest charts and satellite imageries of the National Multi Hazard & Early Warning Center showed continuing the movement of the tropical cyclone that its center located at lat 13.5oN and long 55.5oE, around 400 km away from Salalah city, with surface winds speed ranges between 70 to 80 knots (126 to 144 Km/h)...

Latest weather maps and numerical weather prediction charts show that the tropical cyclone will intensify to Category (2) within 12 hours, with continues of clouds advection with isolated rain and approaching center of the tropical cyclone to Dhofar coasts on Friday lead to very heavy thundershowers and flash floods associated with strong gale wind. The sea state will be rough along Dhofar and Al-Wusta coasts with maximum wave height between 5.0 to 8.0 meters and rough along South Al-Sharqiya coasts with maximum wave height between 3.0 to 4.0 meters...

The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices all to follow the weather bulletins and take precautions regarding wadis and flash floods, and avoid riding the sea.\\\ 

 Updated: 10.53 pm THURSDAY 24 MAY 2018.

 

According to IMD Delhi latest Advisories, released at 11.00 am Friday 25 May 2018, Monster-like’ MEKUNU has intensified as EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.

[[[BULLETIN NO. : 28 (ARB 03/2018)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1100 HOURS IST                DATED: 25.05.2018

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) ‘Mekunu’ intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm over Westcentral Arabian Sea.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunuover Westcentral Arabian Sea moved further north-northwestwards with a speed of 07 Kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, 25th May 2018 over Westcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 15.40 N and longitude 54.50 E, about 310 km north-northeast of Socotra Islands and 180 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross south Oman-southeast Yemen coasts between 530E and 540E close to south of Salalah, around midnight of today, the 25th May, 2018...

Gale winds speed reaching 160-170 Kmph gusting to 180 Kmph is very likely to prevail over Westcentral Arabian Sea during next 15 hours and wind gradually decrease becoming 120-130 Kmph gusting to 145 Kmph in subsequent 06 hours over Westcentral Arabian Sea.

(Naresh Kumar) Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi.]]]

 

WATCH LIVE with DGM OMAN-Click here. 

See live DGM OMAN Warning regarding MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm.

 

 Keep Watch for:

SW Asian Monsoon and other Depressions in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

 CLICK HERE to Watch LIVE Animation with IMD Delhi. 

PKANHYE.      Updated: 10.55 am FRIDAY 25 MAY 2018. 

MEKUNU making Landfall

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU made landfall during the night of Friday 25 May 2018 in Oman, across the coast of Dhofar and Al-Wusta which are located south of Salalah Airport. It Tracked along the North and MEKUNU’s intensity decreased rapidly. The main reason is that it had interaction with the mountainous landscape found thereon. The dry airprevailing in the neighbouring Saudi Arabia is the second cause and thirdly, as stated by JTWC above: ‘TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.’ 

 

It further reduced as a Deep Depression/Tropical Depression by 26 May 2018, while moving in the Territory of Saudi Arabia, as perfectly mentioned above. DGM of Oman issued its 10th (last Warning) on Saturday 26 May 2018, as mentioned below:

/// Warning No. (10) 

Tropical Depression (Mekunu) in Arabian Sea

Day: Saturday Date: 26th May 2018 Issuing time: 06:00 PM L.T

Category: Tropical depression

Latest Updates

Movement of the Tropical Depression: Towards northwest of Dhofar Governorate Winds speed around the center: 17-27 knots (31-50 km/h)

The latest weather charts and satellite imageries of the National Multi Hazard & Early Warning Center shows decrease of the deep depression to tropical depression with continues of isolated rain occasionally thundershowers over Dhofar and Al-Wusta associated with fresh winds within coming 12 hours...

Sea state continues to be rough along Dhofar and Al-Wusta coasts with maximum wave height ranges between 3.0 to 6.0 meters. Along the coastal areas of South Al-Sharqiya, sea state will be rough with maximum wave height ranges between 2.0 to 3.0 meters.

The Public Authority for Civil Aviation urges all to follow latest weather bulletins.\\\

 

IMD Delhi released its last Advisories on Sunday 27 May 2018:

[[[PRESS RELEASE-8

Time of issue: 1200 hours IST Dated: 27-05-2018.

 

Sub: Mekunu weakened into Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Saudi Arabia & adjoining Oman-Yemen.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunuover Oman moved north-northwestwards and weakened into a Severe Cyclonic Storm at 0830 hours IST, into a Cyclonic Storm at 1430 hours IST and into a Deep Depression at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, the 26th May...

Further moving north-northwestwards, it weakened into a Depression at 0530 hours IST and into a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over Saudi Arabia and adjoining Oman & Yemen at 0830 hours IST of today, the 27th May. ]]]

          

Doomsday Impacts of MEKUNU and Disaster Resilience

Mention has been made above that Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU “seems to be a Tremendous and Very Intense Cyclone capable of causing lots of Disasters at sea and on land. The Rain Clouds around the System are capable of causing Floods, Landslides and Humanitarian Crisis”, especially in Yemen whose Early Warning Systems (EWS) appear inactive. According to Aden Reuters report, 4 Yemenis and one India lost their lives on 25 May 2018 in Socotra Island. In addition, 40 others: Yemenis, Indians and Sudanese have gone missing, including three sailors whose boats capsized in the Arabian Sea.

Reports and videos on MEKUNU, made media, depict the Devastating Impacts on the land and sea. Storm Surge along Dohfar and Al-Wusta coasts destroyed boats and buildings. Sea Waves capsized boats and caused missing people, 50 of whom have been, luckily, rescued by Indian Social Club of Salalah. Torrents of Muds have been seen cruising like waterfalls in the cliffs of desert areas. Apocalyptic Flows of Water and Mudslides have carried away vehicles jostled against and over each other. Infrastructure and buildings have been flooded and destroyed. Trees are seen broken and power poles uprooted and damaged.

 

Forces of Nature cannot be controlled or prevented, but Adaptation and Mitigation are achievable. Humans are the most vulnerable creatures. However, many drivers are seen defying dangerous flows of water and mud by crossing with vehicles. Children are found playing in currents of water under the eyes of inactive adults. The question is why 40 persons have been declared missing? It has been mentioned in article on SAGAR Severe Cyclonic Storm, that DGM of Oman appears to be well-organized, in contrast to the neighbouring states. Yet, the other questions are: how far the Early Warning Systems (EWS) have been activated timely and efficiently and to what extent, the countries here are‘Agents of Change’, also Weather Ready’ and ‘Climate Smart’, as mandated by WMO?

Disaster Resilience is the ‘Wealth-of-the-Nation’.

 

  • RELIEFWEB issued on 22 May 2018:

“the government of Somaliland reported at least 25 confirmed deaths, 27 missing and 12 injured including several children. The death toll is expected to rise further.” 

 

  • WMO released its news regarding MEKUNU on 25 May 2018:

<<< Storm surge and huge waves inundated low lying areas near the coast. Oman’s Directorate-General of Meteorology said that 328 mm of rainfall was recorded in Salalah in a 36 hour period from 24 May (000UTC) to 25 May (12UTC). This compares with annual average precipitation in the city of 130 mm...

Dhalqut ( elevation 784 m), received 540 mm rain the 36 hour period...

Scenes from Salalah showed widespread devastation, with damage to roads and infrastructure. On the basis of warnings from Oman’s meteorological department and its National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre, exposed areas were evacuated, medical facilities were readied and the port and airport was closed ahead of Mekunu’s landfall...

Initial reports said that four people died in Oman. >>>

 

  • Aden Reuters.
  • The storm flooded Socotra’s villages and capsized boats, leaving much of the island without access to communications…Yemen is already grappling with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.’, 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-cyclone/five-people-dead-40-missing-in-yemens-socotra-after-cyclone-idUSKCN1IQ2BV

May 28, 2018 | Last updated 4 minutes ago.

***The storm had intensified to a category two cyclone as it hit Oman's Dhofar and Al Wusta provinces on the Arabian Sea on Friday, battering the coast with torrential rains, strong winds and massive waves.

On Saturday, the cyclone had subsided to a tropical storm but was still pummelling the country with heavy rain and winds.

Oman's directorate general of meteorology said the cyclone had gone inland and was heading northwest into Saudi Arabia, but that heavy rains would likely continue into Sunday.

Al Saada in Salalah also bore the brunt of Cyclone Mekunu. Civil Defence authorities said they had evacuated 10,000 people to shelters.

Three wounded Asians were rescued and civil defence teams said they had saved hundreds of people including 260 foreign sailors trapped at sea.***                                                                         

https://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/oman/cyclone-mekunu-leaves-10-dead-40-still-missing-1.2226654

  

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SW Asian Monsoon and other Depressions in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

PKANHYE.     Updated: 5.50 pm TUESDAY 29 MAY 2018.

 

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