Wednesday, 26 June 2019

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Weather Forecasts for Cyclones AMARA, BRUCE and other oncoming Cyclonic Systems.

It is highly likely that AMARA will move from present speed of 5 kph to an increased speed by Friday on the track mentioned. The centre will pass near (Pointe Cotton) the North East of Rodrigues by Sunday 22 December. Cyclone Warning 1, 2,3 to 4 may be passed by that time. HEAVY RAINFALL or FLOOD is highly likely to occur. Rodrigues being mostly hilly with steep valleys, the direct impacts will eventually be as follows: fragile houses may be damaged; food crops and live stocks may be damaged or lost; mudslides, landslides and soil erosion are highly likely to occur; artificial dams and aquifers may be replenished and high waves at the sea (CLICK PICTURE to enlarge).

The remnants of AMARA will shower on Mauritius by Sunday.



TROPICAL CYCLONE BRUCE has already left Cocos Island since 10.00 pm right now. It is a Category 2 Cyclone (77-143 kph) and is moving rapidly at 21 kph in the South West direction. It is highly likely to reach Rodrigues in 10 days. If BRUCE maintains its trajectory and intensification, it will be one of the most disastrous cyclones that I have predicted to visit us as from 2013. Read more:CLICK HERE.  

Other Tropical Depressions, including the region of Mozambique Channel, are highly likely to form as from next week which will affect Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion with lots of rain (click picture to enlarge and press ESC to close).

Please note:

  1. Year 2013 started with Cyclone DUMILE (01-05 January); Torrential Rain of 13 February; Flash Flood of 30 March killing 11 Mauritians; bus crash of Soreze killing 10 and bundles of social evils;
  2. Year 2013 is ending with Heavy Rain falls in November, Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE, bus accident at Pailles yesterday with nearly a dozen injured and bundles of social evils;
  3. Philippines has been devastated by a series of 5 Typhoons and
  4. The South West Indian Ocean is under the threat of cyclones in series.




It is the solemn duty of all Policy Makers, of the Disaster Management Centre, of the Meteorological Services, of the CWA, of the Agriculture, Environment, Fisheries and Health Ministries, of all other Stakeholders, of institutions both public and private, etc. to make an assessment of a Disaster Event. This evaluation report is essential in the effort of building a Disaster Resilient Society with the concepts of 'Country-Driven' and of 'Putting-People-First'. The question that we ask is: have such assessments been done after the Heavy Rainfall during 25 November-03 December 2013 and also after the Intense Cyclone AMARA?

The first step in this direction is to identify the forecasted disaster, then a preliminary risk assessment, then the response assessment, followed by a post disaster assessment including all social, economic and health impacts. These constitute the ingredients in the implementation of the Early Warning Systems in the endeavour of building Resilience. All these assessments give lots of indication on the strengths and weaknesses of Disaster Management mechanisms. Eventually, a nation feels the protected and secured by the Policy Makers who have the Political Goodwill to embark on such policies.   

An Earthquake is a natural event that takes place abruptly, anytime and anywhere at a short notice. In the case of a Tsunami, there are at least 15 minutes to launch the alert if it occurs in the neighborhood.

 In the case of a cyclone, ample time is available for responsible institutions to act and to react. Usually, a cyclonic system undergoes a natural process from formation to organization, to intensification and to landfall. Its lifespan is about 15 days. It starts form a Tropical Disturbance, then to a Depression with a certain trajectory which can be identified by a responsible and a wise weather forecaster. If the air, the moisture, the clouds and the wind current systems appear to be organized, these give birth to a Low Depression. The Atmospheric Pressure around the middle of the cyclonic system may be more or less 1010 Hectopascals. As the Pressure decreases this gives the signal of intensification. When the pressure is around 1008 Hectopascals it means that the cyclonic system is growing and is intensifying. If at this conjecture, there are other atmospheric data and information it is conclusive that a disaster is approaching with a clear cut trajectory. A wise weather forecaster is thus capable to locate, to name and to monitor the oncoming cyclone. 

I mentioned at the beginning of my article above, that AMARA-the First Tropical Cyclone for season 2013-2014 will be born between 09-14 December. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) US identified a Tropical Disturbance 93 S in the South East of Diego Garcia, as mentioned above.


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