Friday, 17 August 2018

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 BREAKING NEWS

BEJISA TROPICAL CYCLONE-TORNADO TYPE AS PREDICTED. Read more: all pages below. 

The Cyclonic Season of 2013-2014 appears to be very active in the South-Western Zone of the Indian Ocean. After the episodes of Intense Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE 16-21 January 2013, a 3rd Cyclone (BEJISA)is in formation in the North East of Madagascar and North West of Agalega. This system is also along the Western extremity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Capricorn.

(Click image to enlarge and press ESC on keyboard to close)

I mentioned on 07 December 2013, regarding the formation of Cyclone AMARA, that it will take birth around Madagascar and Mozambique Channel. AMARA rather formed around the middle of the ITCZ and was named on 16 December. I also stated that it will evolve like Cyclone DUMILE (01-05 January 2013). Cyclone FELLENG (28 January-02 February 2013) also evolved from the same region. 

I mentioned on 18 December 2013, that 'Other Tropical Depressions including in the region of Mozambique Channel, are highly likely to form as from next week (i.e. now) which will affect Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion with lots of rain'. Also that 'The South West Indian Ocean is under the threat of cyclones in series'. This is exactly true. Click here to read more: FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE AMARA 2013-2014.

It is interesting to note that Cyclone BEJISA, which is in formation in the location of DUMILE. Usually the cyclones which originate from this area, take a longer time to evolve and to intensify. The reasons are that:

  • this extremity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is also under the stress of the Atmospheric system of  Mozambique Channel which is rather a zone of warm air coming mainly from East/South of Africa. So, there are lots of convection currents,
  • the South East Trade Wind continues to blow towards this area and
  • the cold air stream of the South Pole oscillation, which is strongest, brings more convection to influence the formation, intensification or dissolution of the cyclonic system. CLICK HERE to see live.

The Weather Forecast is as follows:

  1. You should have well noticed that there are some moderate rainfall mainly in the South and the Central Plateau since a few days: Grand Bassin-72.2 mm; Mon Bois-57.8 mm; Rose Belle-48.6 mm; Queen Victoria-29.4 mm; Providence-26.8 mm; Belle Mare-37.4; Plaisance-39.5 mm and Port Louis-0.8 mm only. These indicate that the Rain Clouds which are moving from the South West of Mauritius are generating this. (Click picture).
  2. Rainfall will accelerate as from Sunday evening as from the clouds that will move from the West or North West of Mauritius. It is highly likely that these clouds will move at low altitude similar to those of the Torrential Rain of 13 February and of 30 March 2013. Refer to article SATELLITE SERVICES. This will be propelled by the movement of the BEJISA whose trajectory will be towards Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues (see satellite imagery above). Eventually, floods are likely to occur in the Central Plateau, Moka and Reduit by 31 December. So, it is strongly advisable to be very cautious especially during these days of parties.
  3. It is highly likely that the Low Pressure will evolve into a Cyclone soon and to influence the region of Reunion, Mauritius and finally Rodrigues, that is, from 01 to 05 January 2014. It appears that the Cyclone will be of a Moderate Intensity giving rather showers for a longer period.
  4. Thunderstorms, humidity, heat, rains, strong wind and high waves at sea are the main ingredients of this system.   
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