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IVANOE MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE-

10TH FOR SEASON 2013-2014.

(SEE UPDATE BELOW)

The Cyclonic Season 2013-2014 for the South Indian Ocean continues to be Very Dynamic. CYCLONE IVANOE was already in formation since Wednesday 02 April 2014 around the South East of Diego Garcia, as mentioned in previous article on HELLEN (9th) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) US, named it as Tropical Disturbance 96 S INVEST on 04 April. It intensified quickly and was named as Moderate Tropical Storm IVANOE by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 05 April. 

Cyclone IVANOE was already in formation since I identified it on 

Wednesday 02 April 2014, as mentioned in article: HELLEN (9th) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center located it (South West of Cocos Island) on 05 April at Latitude 20.40 South and Longitude 82.2 East, moving South South-East at more than 22 kph. 

The Tropical Disturbance had a large mass of clouds which were under the threat of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The southern and eastern parts of the cyclonic system were stripped off, but the trajectory kept the same. The western zone of the band of clouds showed some resilience and became more organised. As a result, it intensified and the Mauritius Meteorological Services named it as Moderate Tropical Storm IVANOE on Saturday 05 April.

Nevertheless, IVANOE continues to move on the same trajectory SSE, as the ACC is very powerful. In other words, IVANOE is bound to become a Sub-Tropical and eventually an Extra-Tropical Cyclone. At this conjecture, the cyclone will cruise towards the South West of Australia in a few days time. This may cause a disturbance for the explorers of the Malaysian Airliner MH 370 which is lost since 10 March this year.            Click here to verify live. 

Observations:

It should be noted that almost all the cyclones originate from both the Upper and Lower Hemisphere of the EQUATOR. Most of these take birth in the East of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and around 40% from the West-along the Mozambique Channel or around Madagascar. All of the cyclones, except a few, adopt a trajectory towards the South Pole, whether they make landfall or not. This is the Law of Nature.

Moreover, the ACC, being the strongest atmospheric system of the Blue Planet, neutralises all cyclones and weather systems and drags them towards the cold waters of the South Pole. The ACC acts as a safeguard if it coincides with the cyclonic/weather system outside the land mass.

Examples: ALENGA (5-15 December 2011), CLAUDIA (7-11 December 2012), BRUCE (20-25 December 2013), FOBANE (07-12 February 2014) and IVANOE.

But, it also causes disasters if it coincides with the cyclones/weather systems around the islands or Southern Africa. Examples: AMARA (16-21 December 2013), BEJISA (28 December 2013-03 January 2014), EDILSON (5-6 February 2014), TORRENTIAL RAINFALL in Rodrigues on 14 March 2014 and the HEAVY RAINFALL in Mauritius on 21 March 2014.

The rainfalls recorded by the MMS on 04 April are 3.6 mm in Port Louis and 22.4 mm (maximum) in Providence. Grand Bassin has been showered by 9.8 mm on 05 April. However, keep watch as other Rain Clouds are approaching.

 As usual, the MMS does not appear to have constructed a Forecast Track of IVANOE despite it named the Cyclone on 05 April 2014. Refer to those of JTWC and to Météo France-Reunion below.                                                                                        

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P.KANHYE.                                              06 APRIL 2014.