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   Geostatic satellite meteosat 7Refer to the Satellite Imagery or Footprint that has been received by Meteo Vacoas on 31.08.2013. This is the Satellite Footprint sent by the Geostatic Satellite called METEOSAT 7 or METSAT 7 or MET 7. See the First Low Pressure I mentioned in my previous Email.

    After receiving this imagery, the officers of Meteo Vacoas decode, interpret, work out and make their forecasts for the Weather, together with other data and information like temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind intensity and wind direction, etc. They also draw the Synoptic Chart to illustrate the forecasts.

   MET 7 Satellite sends one Imagery to the Weather Station every 15 minutes. So, in one hour 4 Imageries are sent. Meteo Vacoas uploads, in its website, one such Imagery every 3 hours; that is one Imagery out of 12 Imageries (=4 times 3 hours). Sometimes, only one such Imagery is uploaded after 6 or 7 hours. In this way, it is difficult for a researcher or for a person seeking some precision on the Footprint, to understand the atmospheric situation on a real time basis.

   According to my observations, findings and predictions this Footprint that Meteo Vacoas receives from MET 7, allows a short term Weather forecasting. However, I do my Weather Prediction as from the same Satellite Imageries received by Meteo Vacoas.

  Geostatic satellite meteosat 7 Refer to the Satellite Imagery sent by METEOSAT 7 to Philippines. It is the same Imagery received by Meteo Vacoas at the same date and time-31.08.2013. This Footprint is wider in Latitude and Longitude. It permits a Forecaster to make a Weather forecast on a longer term. You should have noticed that, almost whole of the atmosphere of Asia, part of Australia, part of Africa and part of the Indian Ocean are visible. Your attention is drawn to the guideline I gave you, earlier, regarding the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Remember that most depressions, cyclones, thunderstorms, lightning, droughts and floods have the tendency to originate from the East of the Indian Ocean. This Footprint gives the opportunity to any Forecaster to track down any atmospheric disturbance more than ten days ahead. That is why I am capable of Predicting Weather better and earlier than Meteo Vacoas and others. Meteo Vacoas often takes too long time in identifying or in naming Cyclones. I usually do it 5 to 8 days earlier, in some cases one day before NASA. In the case of 30 March 2013 I did it 11 days beforehand, because I surf on different Footprints received by many countries around the Indian Ocean.

india ocean meteosat7   Now, refer to the Satellite Imagery sent to Germany by the same METEOSAT 7. This is the Imagery of the same day-31.08.2013 that was sent to Meteo Vacoas and to Philippines. This Footprint appears to be the best service offered to Weather Stations. Please, note that it covers the whole of the Indian Ocean, part of the Southern Ocean (Antarctica) and part of the Atlantic Ocean, namely of Southern Africa. The Satellite picture of this zone of the atmosphere, allows us to track down depressions, cyclones, floods and heat that originate during the Summer Season and also permits to track down anticyclones, cold winds, ocean high waves and possible snowflakes, snowfalls during the Winter Season. It also gives the opportunity to have indications of the emissions of ash from La Fournaise volcano of Reunion Island, which I have predicted.

   According to me, this is the ideal Satellite Imagery or Footprint that the Meteorological Services of Mauritius should receive, in order to make dynamic Weather Forecasts including other atmospheric and oceanic hazards. This is one of the real strategies that the Policy Makers of the Republic should adopt, in order to provide Protection and Security to the citizens. That is why I suggested, in my document dated 28 May 2011 and sent to the PM and other Political Leaders of both the Government and the Opposition sides, by saying that Mauritius should have her own Satellite and be utilized for several purposes like weather and climate, natural and man-made disasters, urbanization, fishing industry, marine archaeology, volcanic ash tracking, agriculture, etc. Also, that Mauritius should lead in Climate issues in this region.

   The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the institution of the United States of America (USA) that is responsible for the Weather and Climate issues. It is the most organized institution of the world. Its ‘mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine resources’.

   There are 4 main Geostationary Satellites for the NOAA:

  1. GOES 12 was operational since 01 April 2003 and has been monitoring weather in the East Coast of USA and part of Atlantic Ocean and also part of South America. It has retired just recently since 19 August 2013.
  2. GOES 13 is stationary 22,300 miles above the Equator in the East of USA. On 22 May 2013 it was hit by a space debris-micro asteroid, which disoriented its position, but was resettled with the competence of the scientists (mysterious number 13 ???);
  3. GOES 15 serves for the West of USA at the same orbit and
  4. GOES 14 is kept as a reserve in case the others experience problems.
  5. GOES-R is being ready for more advanced operations in the future, as a replacement of GOES 12.

    In addition, NOAA operates Polar Satellites including others. With the help of such Satellites, NOAA is capable of having all data and information regarding all the continents and oceans.  Moreover, the scientists have detailed knowledge of the atmospheric phenomena of:

  • .EL Nino which, during summer season, generates droughts, heat waves, fires, depressions, cyclones and floods from the East of the Pacific Ocean and moves towards the West, thus influencing the weather of the whole world;
  • La Nina which, during winter season, activates from the same zone of El Nino but causes the reverse impact with cold winds and snowfalls. It also changes the rainfall pattern throughout the world;
  • the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Cancer which is in the northern part of the Equator;
  •  the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Capricorn which is in the southern part of the Equator;
  • the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) system which causes the monsoons/rainfalls in Asia and
  • the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which causes floods in Africa, Asia, Australia and America.

    Most of the countries depend on NOAA for all weather and climate references in which all atmospheric and oceanic details are available plentifully. Even our next door neighbour Meteo France-Reunion Island seeks assistance thereto. Unfortunately, Meteo Vacoas does not appear to have recourse to this outstanding resource. Had they referred to it, then, the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 could have been better monitored. Thus, 4 + 11 lives of innocent people and property could have been saved. However, I do refer to it. That is why I am capable of understanding and of Predicting Natural Calamities better and earlier than Meteo Vacoas.

   Now let me explain further, how I track down Natural Hazards in a dynamic way. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) governed by the USA, has the most sophisticated space crafts, satellites and equipment of the world. Moreover, it has the latest technology regarding apparatuses, cameras, sensors, tools, equipment, devices, vehicles, etc. and also in fields of health, geology, atmosphere, ocean, etc. The Satellites and Space Crafts operated by NASA, not only go to the moon, to Mars and to galaxies, they also keep watch on all the oceans, continents, islands and the atmosphere of the whole Blue Marble.

  Satellite pic mauritius march 2013 The Satellite Sensor called Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in 1997 in Low Earth Orbit by NASA, jointly with JAXA-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. This Satellite monitors rainfall in both the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn globally. On 25 January 2008, there was unusually intense rainfall in Southern Africa, namely Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe where 45 people were reported dead and 120,000 people were displaced. It is this Satellite that indicated that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is responsible for the disasters. As I am linked to NASA since 2007, I received the Imagery, by the end of January 2008, which shows the heavy rainfall of Southern Africa.

    Now, see the NASA Satellite Imagery of 11 March 2013 which I received on 19 March 2013. The scientific explanation was as follows:

  • ‘a striking band of clouds ran roughly from North West to South East over the open Southern Indian Ocean’;
  • ‘the clouds in the North West are below one kilometre in altitude, while the remaining clouds, which are thicker and more developed, are between one and two kilometres’.

   This imagery and the explanations thereon, confirm what I Predicted since October 2006; that the MJO will fuse with the Southern Oscillation by June 2010. This is what I mentioned in my documents that I submitted to the Fact Finding Committee (FFC) that was instituted after the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008. But unfortunately, the FFC omitted my Prediction in the report.

   Let us see the direction in which the clouds have been moving in the Indian Ocean on 11 March 2013 as per NASA Satellite Imagery. They have started from South Africa and continued through Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues until the South West of Australia. It is the similar cloud systems that caused the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. These similar bands of clouds which were moving below one kilometre in altitude, struck against the Signal Mountain which is the first high land mass of Western Port Louis Mountain Range. So, the Deadly Flash Flood in Port Louis City and in Canal Dayot, which are found on the Eastern side and the Western side of the Mountain respectively, was inevitable.  

   Flash Flood Highly Predictable This Flash Flood was Highly Predictable by me. I was already observing the movements of these dark and heavy clouds since long. This direction of the clouds, towards the North West of Mauritius, was enhanced and accelerated by the impact of the MJO on Cyclone FELLENG- 28 January to 02 February 2013. Remember that it was this FELLENG that generated waves 4-5 metres high in the sea, as a result of which Seychelles was Flooded. These waves also affected the North West coast of Mauritius.

    Also note that the MBC did not announce the onset of the waves in the news bulletins of Thursday 31 January. I had notified the PM, the MBC Director and the Chairman of the Disaster Management Committee on this omission or censorship (no one took proper action!). These bands of clouds continued to move with thunderstorms in the same NW direction during the following 8 days causing Flash Floods in Rose Belle, Amaury , Quatre Bornes and Sans Soucis. This is what led to the Torrential Rain Warning of 13 February 2013. Please, take note that I had already alerted the Director of Meteo Vacoas 10 days earlier; that is on 03 February 2013.

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