The 10th Cyclone of South Indian Ocean for the Season 2020-2021 reveals to be remarkably very rapid in development. As Low Pressure located Westwards of Agalega, Mauritius it seems to cruise towards the North-West of Madagascar.
Météo Madagascar has named the Cyclone as Moderate Tropical Storm on Tuesday 20 April 2021. After further intensification it was Severe Tropical Storm and has now reached Tropical Cyclone status today Wednesday 21 April 2021. located at 9.70 South and 47.80 East.
http://metservice.intnet.mu/satellite-anim.php
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Uploaded: 21.20 Hrs WEDNESDAY 21 APRIL 2021.
JOBO, a small diameter Cyclone has been moving West North-West at 20 kph during Wednesday 21 April. General consensus indicates that it will make landfall on the landmass of Tanzania, East Africa by Saturday 23 April after some weakening trend.
The Advisories of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are as follows (etd):
[[[WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 47.5E.
21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) VERIFIES THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TC 29S, WITH A WEAK EYE LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY BY THE 211000Z HOUR, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FADING BY THE 211200Z HOUR. A 211036Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EXHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), FORMING A CLEAR 12NM MICROWAVE EYE, LENDINGHIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION of THE SYSTEM…
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DVORAK-BASED ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0-T3.4 ARE LIKELY UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY DUE TO KNOWN DVORAK TECHNIQUE BIASES WITH COMPACT SYSTEMS. THUS, INTENSITY IS INCREASED ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIMARILY DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN THE MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. OVERALL, TC JOBO LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST INDICATIVE OF AN IMPROVED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ROUND OUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION…
TC JOBO HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE RECENT PERIOD OF SLOWING IS ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAKENED GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH…
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF TANZANIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE INCREASED SHEAR, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72…
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHEAR RELAXES ONCE AGAIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION ONCE INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF THE FORECAST, WITH SPREAD INCREASING FROM 65NM AT TAU 48 TO 130NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET.]]]
PKANHYE. Updated: 11.34 am THURSDAY 22 APRIL 2021.