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Cyclonic Storm LUBAN-Arabian Sea and Deep Depression-Bay of Bengal

Coincide with the gradual Withdrawal of

South-West Asian Monsoon System 2018

       

Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR(17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in North Indian Ocean. The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) Onset, officially, started as from Tuesday 29 May 2018 in Kerala, causing Humanitarian Crisis thereafter during 13 to 23 August.

Cyclonic Storm LUBAN in the Arabian Sea was named yesterday Monday 08 October 2018 and Cyclonic Storm TITLI in the Bay of Bengal has been baptised today Tuesday 09 October. The landmass of India, the sub-continent, is sandwiched between these two Weather Systems, coinciding also with the Monsoon Withdrawal which normally takes place by 15 October 2018. All these prove that Natural Disasters are evolving dynamically in the Northern Indian Ocean. India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC), has issued its Warning as from Monday 08 October 2018.

[[[Time of issue: 14.00 hours IST Dated: 08-10-2018.

 

Cyclonic Storm, "LUBAN" over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea:

Yesterday’s depression over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea intensified into a deep depression in the same evening, the 7th October. Moving further west-northwestwards, it concentrated into Cyclonic Storm “LUBAN” in the early morning of today, the 8th October over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea. It lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 08th October 2018 over the same region, near latitude 12.4°N and longitude 62.0°E, about 990 km eastsoutheast of Salalah (Oman), 880 km east of Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 1300 km west-northwest of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Islands). It is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards South Oman & Yemen Coasts during next 5 days.

Warnings:

(i) Wind Warning:

Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is very likely over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph during 9th October 2018 evening to 11th October evening over westcentral Arabian Sea around the system centre. The wind speed is very likely to decrease gradually over southwest Arabian Sea from 9th morning.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over adjoining areas of southeast and east central Arabian Sea during next 24 hrs.

(ii) Sea Condition:

The sea condition is high around the system centre. It is very likely to become gradually very high over westcentral Arabian Sea from 8th October 2018 evening onwards.

(iii) Fishermen Warning:

The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of westcentral Arabian Sea from 8th to 12th October, adjoining southwest Arabian sea during next 48 hrs and adjoining areas of southeast and east central Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.

08.10.18/08.30 12.4/62.0 65-75 gusting to 85.......Cyclonic Storm

08.10.18/11.30 12.5/61.8 70-80 gusting to 90.......Cyclonic Storm

08.10.18/17.30 12.8/61.2 80-90 gusting to 100.....Cyclonic Storm

08.10.18/23.30 13.1/60.6 80-90 gusting to 100.....Cyclonic Storm

09.10.18/05.30 13.4/60.0 90-100 gusting to 115....Severe Cyclonic Storm

09.10.18/17.30 13.7/59.3 100-110 gusting to 125..Severe Cyclonic Storm

10.10.18/05.30 14.0/58.6 100-110 gusting to 125..Severe Cyclonic Storm

10.10.18/17.30 14.4/57.9 100-110 gusting to 125..Severe Cyclonic Storm

11.10.18/05.30 14.8/57.8 100-110 gusting to 125..Severe Cyclonic Storm

11.10.18/17.30 15.1/56.3 100-110 gusting to 125..Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.10.18/05.30 15.3/55.4 90-100 gusting to 115....Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.10.18/17.30 15.5/54.0 80-90 gusting to 100......Cyclonic Storm.

(B) Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal: Pre-cyclone watch for north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast.

Yesterday’s low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) & adjoining north Andaman Sea lay as a well marked low pressure area in the same evening, the 7th October. It concentrated into a depression in the morning of today, the 8th October 2018 over eastcentral BoB near latitude 14.0°N and longitude 88.8°E, about 720 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 690 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a Deep Depression during next 24 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards towards Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 72 hours.

08.10.18/0830 14.0/88.8 40-50 gusting to 60...Depression

08.10.18/1730 14.5/87.8 45-55 gusting to 65...Depression

09.10.18/0530 15.5/86.8 50-60 gusting to 70...Deep Depression

09.10.18/1730 16.5/86.0 55-65 gusting to 75...Deep Depression

10.10.18/0530 17.5/85.6 60-70 gusting to 80...Cyclonic Storm

10.10.18/1730 18.5/85.3 65-75 gusting to 85...Cyclonic Storm

11.10.18/0530 19.2/85.0 70-80 gusting to 90...Cyclonic Storm.

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Sub-Divisions

09 Oct. 2018* 10 Oct. 2018* 11 Oct. 2018* 12 Oct. 2018*

Odisha

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at Isolated Places over south coastal Odisha Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at Isolated Places over coastal Odisha Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at Isolated Places over coastal & adjoining interior Odisha Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at Isolated Places over north.

North Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Rainfall at a few places Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at Isolated Places Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at Isolated Places Rainfall at Isolated Places.;

Gangetic West Bengal

Rainfall at Isolated Places Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at Isolated Places.

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.

Legends: Red-Take Action; Orange- Be prepared; Yellow- be updated; Green: No warning;

Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day

(i) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph very likely over north Andaman Sea, southeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Islands during next 24 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely over deep sea areas of central & adjoining north Bay of Bengal from 8th to 10th October 2018.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely to commence along & off along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast from 9th afternoon.

It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph from 10th October 2018 evening onwards along & off south Odisha & adjoining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts and 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph along & off north Odisha, west Bengal and remaining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts.

(ii) Sea condition

The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough over north Andaman Sea and southeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours; and very rough over central & adjoining north Bay of Bengal during 9th and very rough to high during 10th and 11th October 2018.

(iii) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of central Bay of Bengal during 8th to 10th October 2018 and north Bay of Bengal during 9th to 11th October 2018 and into north Andaman Sea on 8th October 2018.

Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast.]]]

 

Normal Withdrawal of South-West Asian Monsoon System-

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php?adta=JPG&adtb=2 

 

Keep Watch.

PKANHYE. 6.56 pm MONDAY 08 OCTOBER 2018.

Updated-12.04 pm Thursday 10 October 2018.

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