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Dr. P. BERNAL                                                                                   Date: 15/09/2005.

UNESCO REPRESENTATIVE.

PARIS, FRANCE.

                    Re: International Conference on Tsunami Warning System held in Mauritius.

                           (14-16 April, 2005).

    It has been a remarkable opportunity for me to attend the conference on 14th and 15th April, as a freelance Researcher and Observer. It is God’s Will that I be present there.

    I am really astounded to learn from the conference, that there are innumerable institutions throughout the world that have different types of networking systems to provide information to be acted upon by those concerned. It is equally deplorable that 280,000 lives and property have been lost on 26 December, 2004 and on 28 March, 2005, because of the inefficiency of all the existing systems. The question that intrigues human mind is why Diego Garcia was not at all affected? There seems to be some manipulation by the USA, whom I consider to be responsible together with others, for loss of lives and property. I did notice the low profile cast by the two Representatives of USA and the absence of the British in the Grand Baie Conference.

    You may recall the lamentable tribulations of Somalia, Myanmar, Maldives and Kenya (informed after 341 minutes of the disaster of December, 2004), to mention only a few. Some of the presenters mentioned the services offered by their different networks without showing a sign of concern or action taken at the crucial moment of 26 December, 2004. We can enumerate some reasons, like: lack of preparedness both by the Authorities and by the individuals, lack of equipment, inefficient equipment, equipment being unattended or switched off, manipulation of the crucial information etc…

   We can notice that none of the senders or receivers achieved real time action. This means that all the systems badly need updating, renovation, reprogramming and overall review. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs said: “Disaster reduction is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware; at root it is also a matter of communication and education …. We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the people in need of such information.”

  The 24 hrs/7 days formula will not suffice, because this will be simply real time achievement. What must be fulfilled, according to my standpoint, is the Predicted Time formula. In order to illustrate my standpoint, I say that God allowed exactly three months to redress the situation – from 26 December, 2004 to 28 March, 2005. Real Time was not attained by the different networks in the March case. There was rather a general panic among those at risk, coupled with wrong information. Were these systems efficient by end of June; that is exactly three months after March 28 ?

   You may kindly note that I predicted some calamities for Indonesia for June, 2005. Tremors were felt in the mainland of Mauritius in July, 2005. I predict, now, that this calamity will repeat in September. If you follow what I say, just notice the three months sequence. Watch out for December also. Heavy rainfalls and disastrous cyclones are expected during this summer in Mauritius.                                                                                                                 

   What I want to point out is that, we should go much further than what Egeland has mentioned. If ‘communication is predictable’ according to some researchers, we should attain the Predicted Time formula. Therefore, all our systems should be much more dynamic. It is regrettable to notice that such issues, which are so crucial for the whole mankind, are not being taken into serious consideration, both at micro and macro levels. The Media does not disseminate the awareness strategy. Our government has not yet activated the appropriate education both at public and at curriculum levels. Worst of all, the vulnerable sectors are not being prepared.

Let me give you an example; I predicted, during February and April 2002, that natural calamities like tidal waves, landslides and erosions will strike our small island of Rodrigues. I had alerted the present Chief Commissioner, a few other Commissioners and other politicians and the general public of the Island. Only a few inhabitants considered my sayings. I held a conference at the University of Mauritius in June 2002, in view of launching an NGO. I mentioned clearly, during my presentation that, the Indian Ocean will become the pole of attraction for all international, political, economic, social, cultural and spiritual activities during this millennium. I also stressed that the USA, as a super power, will cede to new emerging states. The manifestation of Hurricane KATRINA is an indication. Further more, I requested the BBC to disseminate my Predictions, but it was in vain. I am aware of the degree of seriousness of my predictions. I am, therefore, inviting all the professionals, technocrats and scientists involved in the Tsunami issue to understand me. 

 Let us look at the geological, geophysical, oceanographic and seismological structures of the Indian Ocean. The latter is the 3rd smallest ocean of this blue planet. Its bed is made up of three plates: African-Somali, Australo-Indian and Antarctic. If we go back to the Jurassic Period (80-100 mya), the Gondwanaland existed with Africa, Madagascar, Antarctic, Australia and India. 80-65 mya the sub continent of India separated from the others. It moved towards the north forming the Mascarenes Basin. Various transformations of the Ocean bed took place, whereby the Carlsberg Ridge, East Indian Ridge and Chagos-Laccadive were formed 65-55 mya. The Mascarene Plateau was formed by volcanic eruptions 50-40 mya. This in turn caused India to collide with the Asian Continent and subsequently, the Himalayas took birth.

  Researchers say that the Mascarenes Islands- Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues, were formed 10 mya, 3.5 mya and 1.5 mya respectively (which I do not agree). These islands are situated at the crossroads of the three different tectonic plates and of the Carlsberg (Central Indian) Ridge, S.W. Indian Ridge, S.E. Indian Ridge, Ninety East Indian Ridge and the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge. If the natural transformations of the Indian Ocean have been taking place since the whole world was created about 5 b years ago, common sense teaches us that, the process will continue. That is, the plates will continue to move provoking landslides (terrestrial & marine), volcanic eruptions and consequently Tsunamis.   

  Let us, now, consider the Indian Plate found at the Java Trench, as being the Nose of the Plate. When this Nose will move at any given time, the Tail of the Plate which is found around the Mascarenes region, will no doubt move, causing deeper fissures. It is true that a fissure was opened around Sumatra after the December, 2004 event, is n’t ? What we can conclude is that the Hot Spots will subsequently manifest themselves with volcanic eruptions under the sea. This in turn may provoke movement of the African and Antarctic Plates, causing probable horrible havoc in the Mascarenes region. The Diego Garcia Archipelago found at the crossroads of the African and the Asian plates and along the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge will also be affected. That is why I have predicted that Diego Garcia will be affected by June 2010. The subsequent Tsunami will affect directly Agalega and Rodrigues.

  By taking all these into great consideration, I say that researchers do not seem to take it at utmost serious level. What I propose is that, the Researchers should make it a solemn task by visiting Rodrigues island which is the most vulnerable of the group. I consider it to be a University of secret information and to be a Laboratory for deep study. Traces of the Gondwanaland seem to be hidden (see also below). Besides, you should note that, Mauritius is also known historically, as the Star & Key of the Indian Ocean.   

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