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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

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 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

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HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

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ABELA Cyclone of South Indian Ocean in Formation-Winter Phenomenon.

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ABELA Cyclone 0f South Indian Ocean in Formation

Winter Phenomenon  

NEW UPDATE: 10.00 pm Sunday 17 JULY 2016

The Winter Season 2016 in the Southern Indian Ocean continues to blow cold winds generated by the influence of the Anti-Cyclone and to shower some light rains in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) continues to indicate, since May 2016, the formation of the Low Pressure System (90 S INVEST) near the East North-East of Diego Garcia. This time the circumstances and chances for the evolution of a Tropical Cyclone seem to be better. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has named the Tropical Depression, at 3.15 pm on Sunday 17 July 2016, as Moderate Tropical Storm ABELA. So, at this conjecture, the name GOA is not valid. Refer to the explanations below.

 

The Advisories published by the JTWC are as follows:

[ABIO10 PGTW 111800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZJUL2016:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6S 77.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY....

 GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT INDUCES A PERSISTENT SURFACE VORTICITY RESPONSE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

 

On the next day, 12 July, JTWC issued other advisories:

[ABIO10 PGTW 121800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN

/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZJUL2016:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6S 77.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 76.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121344Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.

A PREVIOUS METOP-A 120451Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY, SO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE NEAR TERM.

HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT INDUCE A SURFACE VORTICITY RESPONSE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.]

 

The other Advisories of JTWC continued on 14 July: 

 [ABIO10 PGTW 141800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 72.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...

HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE BROAD LLCC AND MIXED MODEL CONFIDENCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.]

 

 The Advisories of JTWC regarding the Formation of a Tropical Cyclone state on 15 July:

[WTXS21 PGTW 151600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 210 NM RADIUS OF 8.5S 69.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

2. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151322Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A RECENT OBSERVATION ALSO SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXING OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT STILL RELATIVELY HIGH TO THE NORTH AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR 28 CELSIUS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PREVIOUSLY TAKING THE DISTURBANCE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP-LAYERED STR WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF BY TAU 24 TO 36 STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED.]

 

The Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not mention about any Tropical System in the South-West Indian Ocean, except some average Rainfalls in the central zone for period 13-26 July 2016.  

So, the question whether Dynamical Models do really show 100% VIABILITY, continues to be asked! Refer to previous articles wherein the issue has been often raised for a serious review by Scientists and Forecasters. In addition, Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowldege/Practices should be applied as complementary components of Scientific data and knowledge.

 

Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the South-West Indian Ocean published it Advisories as follows:

 

[AWIO21 FMEE 120956 CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX / CMRS DE LA REUNION .

METEO-FRANCE BULLETIN SUR L'ACTIVITE CYCLONIQUE ET LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN LE 12/07/2016 A 1200 UTC..

Le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien est toujours en configuration de Thalweg Proche Equatorial (TPE) axé vers 6S. L'activité convective a beaucoup fluctué au cours des dernières 24 heures à l'Est de 70E, entre l'Equateur et 12S. Ni les images satellite, ni les données ASCAT actuellement disponibles ne permettent d'identifier une circulation fermée dans ce secteur. Cependant, le modèle CEP déterministe analyse une vaste circulation dépressionnaire centrée à 12Z vers 6S/75E, en cohérence avec les observations de surface disponibles.

 

Le signal de la prévision de cyclogenèse de la prévision d'ensemble du CEP continue de se renforcer à partir de jeudi 14 juillet, en phase avec le renforcement des vents dans le gradient, au sud du minimum….

 

 

Au cours des cinq prochains jours, le risque de formation d'une dépression tropicale est faible à modéré entre jeudi et samedi.]

 

[...les modèles numériques disponibles maintiennent un fort cisaillement de vents sur la zone jusqu'en fin de journée de samedi. Une fenêtre d'intensification de 24 Heures existe cependant à partir de dimanche matin, alors que le système se rapprochera de l'axe de la dorsale d'altitude, permettant un affaiblissement de la contrainte d'altitude, alors que le système sera encore au-dessus d'eaux au contenu énergétique juste suffisant. A partir de lundi, l'environnement énergétique n'apparait plus suffisant pour envisager un développement significatif, Néanmoins, la présence de ce système devrait provoquer une dégradation notable des conditions météorologiques sur les iles soeurs des lundi et jusque mercredi compris.

Au cours des cinq prochains jours, le risque de formation d'une dépression tropicale est modéré à important jusqu'à lundi compris puis redevient modéré par la suite.]

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, at last, issued a Special Weather Bulletin on Friday:

 

[SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE FOR RODRIGUES ISSUED AT 12H00 FRIDAY 15 JULY 2016.

A STRONG WIND AND HIGH WAVE WARNING FOR RODRIGUES VALID FROM 1600 HOURS THIS FRIDAY 15 JULY UP TO 0400 HOURS MONDAY 18 JULY 2016.

 

A ZONE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EVOLVING FAR TO THE NORTH EAST OF RODRIGUES AND A STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS TRAVELLING IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES.

 

THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE A RAPID AIR STREAM TO FLOW TOGETHER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE REGION OF RODRIGUES.

 

WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTH EAST AT A MEAN SPEED OF 50 KM/H WITH GUSTS WHICH MAY REACH 90 TO 100 KM/H IN PLACES. SEA WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH WITH 4 TO 5 METRES SWELLS IN THE OPEN SEAS. VENTURES AT SEA ARE STRICTLY NOT ADVISED .

 

WEATHER AT RODRIGUES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PASSING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND AT TIMES OF MODERATE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

 

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO BE VERY CAREFUL DUE TO CROSS WINDS ON THE ROADS, FLYING OBJECTS AS WELL AS  DURING MANOEUVRES   ON TALL STRUCTURES.]

 

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued a Weather Bulletin at 4.40 pm Sunday 17 July 2016, after the Tropical Depression intensified. It was named as Moderate Tropical Storm ABELA, as it is located in the Area of Responsibilty (AOR) of the MMS which is between Longitude 55ºE and 90ºE.

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H40 THIS SUNDAY 17 JULY 2016.

GENERAL SITUATION:

 

The tropical depression has intensified into a moderate tropical storm and has been named ABELA by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 15h15.

 

(A) At 16h00, ABELA was centred in latitude 12.0 degrees South and longitude 64.5 degrees East at about 1170 km to the North-East of Mauritius. It is maintaining its movement towards the West-South-West at about 20 km/h.

 

(B) The combined effect of ABELA and a strong anticyclone to the South-East of the Mascarenes is maintaining a windy weather over our region.]

 

 

NB: According to the MMS, the Cyclonic Season for South Indian Ocean starts as from ‘01 November to 15 May of the following year’. So, as from mid-May to November, it is the Winter Season. Today 17 July, hardly two months have elapsed in the Winter phase. Yet, 90 S INVEST has formed into a Cyclone in the cold weather. It is obvious that it is a Winter Phenomenon. The representative of the Meteorological Services stated live in this evening news bulletin, on Sunday 17 July, at the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation Television that such a phenomenon has popped up after 08 July 1972, i.e. after 44 years.

 

Check it out here with MMS.

 

The reason why the MMS preferred to baptise ABELA from the List of Cyclone Names from the oncoming Cyclonic Season 2016-2017, instead of the Season 2015-2016, is not clear. However, the list in question has not been published in its website.

 

 

Observations of Clouds and the Atmosphere from the Ground

 

Local Atmospheric Conditions indicate that Rainfalls are inevitable, as Cumulus, Cumulus Congestus and Cumulonimbus Clouds are invading the sky around Mauritius. These are propelled by the South-East Trade Wind (SETW) accompanied by cold airstreams generated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The Temperature in Mauritius and Rodrigues is varying between 14-27 degrees Celsius. Reunion Island, whose topography is mostly hilly and mountainous, is located further towards the South Pole. The inhabitants here are experiencing Colder Temperature reaching a minimum of Zero degree, maximizing at 140 C. The Wind Force recorded in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion is 40-50 kph with gusts of 70-90 kph. Rainfalls are below average and Ocean Waves are reaching 4-5 metres high.

 

 

 

 

JTWC’s Advisories mention that the Sea Surface Temperature is 280 Celsius around the Tropical Depression mentioned above. Moreover, part of the clouds moving from the South-East will gradually reach the North-West of the Indian Ocean. As this is the zone where there are lots of Convection in the Atmosphere, the Tropical Depression (90 S INVEST) will highly likely to boost its development. Therefore, the Inter-Tropical  Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to move from the East of the Indian Ocean until towards the West, thereby intensifying the Tropical Depression. Moreover, the Zone is also under the influence of Cold Fronts which cause instability- Strong Winds, Sea Swells, Rains (moderate) and decrease in Temperature.

 

Besides, the El Nino is a still causing droughts and heat in various countries of Africa.

 

 

The press release of the World Meteorological Organization dated 6 July 2016 is:

“The 2015/2016 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, has died out....More than 60 million people worldwide, about 40 million in East and Southern Africa alone, are projected to be food insecure due to the impact of El Niño.’

 

So, a Cyclonic System is highly likely to occur around Madagascar, although the South Indian Ocean is in the phase of Winter Season. If 90 S INVEST System intensifies, it will bear the name of ABELA, (the 1st or 8th Cyclone) of the South Indian Ocean.

 

NB: Cyclone KUENA evolved as a Winter Phenomenon in South-West Indian Ocean during Winter Season, more precisely on 08 June 2012. Moreover, Cyclone ANAIS prevailed in late Winter-14 October 2012.

 

 

However, whatever be the continuation or the evolution of the Tropical Depression, it is Forecast to track towards the West North-West of Madagascar until the coast of Africa. The Mozambique Channel being a Hot Spot may cause further Convection and eventual intensification. Given, that Africa has been under the effects of El Nino, Rainfalls will definitely shower the region. This is the forecast scenario of 90 S INVEST.

                                           

CLICK picture or HERE to view animation LIVE at NOAA.

 

It should be noted that there were 7 Cyclones which evolved during the Summer Season 2015-2016 in the Southern Indian Ocean. Yet, none has made any landfall, except FANTALA the Record-Breaker which made three trips around Farquhar Island- Seychelles. The other Cyclones are as follows: ANNABELLE (20-23 November 2015), BOHALE (11 December 2015), CORENTIN (21-23 January 2016), DAYA (10-12 February 2016), EMERAUDE (16-18 March 2016), FANTALA (12-26 April 2016) plus URIAH (12-15 February 2016), which was named by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and escaped from Cocos Island. Click cyclone names to read articles.

 

It is also noteworthy to say that the Mascarene Islands-Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues have been under the impacts of localized Floods, Heavy Rainfalls, Sea swells and Strong Winds during the whole of the Summer Season 2015-16. Refer to other articles in this Website. So, 90 S INVEST is highly likely to impact in the South-West Indian Ocean Bassin with Rains and Cyclonic Systems.

Nota Bene:

Typhoon Nepartak, this year’s first tropical cyclone in the Western North Pacific Basin, has made landfall in south-eastern Taiwan on Friday, causing devastating winds and Torrential Rain. Also, Hurricane Darby and Tropical Storm Celia in the Pacific Ocean are still influencing this zone.

 

                       PKANHYE.                                    SATURDAY 16 JULY 2016.

 

 REFER TO THE UPLOADS OF 14-15 MAY 2016 below. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has identified, 0n 13 May 2016, a Low Pressure System at Latitude 6.10 South and  Longitude 79.90 East, about 317 nautical miles North-North-East of Diego Garcia. Until 11 May, there was ‘NO SUSPECT AREA’, as shown on picture below. If, the System becomes well organised, then it is likely to give birth to the GAO- 8th Cyclone for Season 2015-2016 South Indian Ocean. However, Winter Season is already active as from the begining of May.

 

The Advisories published, on 13 May 2016, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) are as follows:

 

[ABIO10 PGTW 131800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAY2016.

 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 79.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING SHALLOW CONVECTION, EVIDENT ON THE 131106Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. RECENT MOSAIC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD LLCC WITH A STRONG 30 KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR THAT IS ENHANCING CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW BUT HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.]

Keep Watch for UPDATES.

PKANHYE.                                          11.50 am SATURDAY 14 MAY 2016.

CLICK NEXT to read more on previous Update.

 

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