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IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM-2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.

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IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM

Evolving from Cocos Islands-

2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is Still ON) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean appears to develop a particular dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rains. While Tropical Cyclone AVA is making landfall across Madagascar, bands of Rain Clouds are following it, causing additional Disasters. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) has named another System as IRVIN Tropical Cyclone this morning. This Cyclone is moving West South-West at 20 kph. It represents a serious threat to Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion which have, during current week, been under floods associated with Tropical Cyclone AVA.

NB: Météo-France-Reunion (MFR) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC have been consistently signaling Cyclogenesis in this zone.

 

Australia Bureau of Meteorology released, this morning, the following Advisories:

 

<<DW24000 

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Western Australia.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

Issued at 2:35 pm WST on Saturday 6 January 2018

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH.

Tropical Cyclone Irving (Category 1) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 12.7S 90.6E, that is 680 km west of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 20 ilometres per hour. The system is not expected to directly impact the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

 

No further Information Bulletins will be issued by Perth TCWC for this system.

Please refer to La Reunion RSMC for subsequent updates.>>

 

NB: Tropical Cyclone IRVIN formed in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of ABOM. Now that it is crossing Longitude 900 East, it is entering the AOR of Mauritius Meteorological Services.

 

Check here- http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt 

 

    

PKANHYE              11.05 am Saturday 06 January 2018.

 

JTWC released its Advisories on 06 January 2018, by stating that Cyclone IRVIN is moving towards West South-West at 13 knots (about 24 kph). See below.

{WTXS32 PGTW 061500

REMARKS:

061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 88.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH NOW SURROUNDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061130Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...

AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48...

AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET.}

 

{WTXS32 PGTW 070900

REMARKS:

070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 070550Z HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...

AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72...

TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET.}

 

 (Updated: 4.25 pm Sunday 07 January 2018.)

 

MMS Amateur and Contrary to EWS

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) is still stuck in Amateurism, in spite of some recent investments. It is noteworthy to mention that the MMS stopped mentioning, in its Weather Bulletins, about AVA Moderate Tropical Storm. This System was identified, near 14.90 South and 59.20 East, by JTWC since 29 December 2017. It formed and evolved in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the MMS, i.e. 900 East and 550 East. JTWC named it as 94S INVEST. After intensifying almost rapidly it was mature for baptism as Moderate Tropical Storm AVA, at 10.00 am on Wednesday 03 January 2018. By that time, AVA had moved into the AOR of Meteo-Madagascar (MM), i.e. 550 East to 350 East, which named it..

While it was still in the AOR of MMS, the Forecasters of MMS did not, in their routine Weather Bulletins, mention at all about the presence of AVA during 02 and 03 January 2018. It was when Heavy Rains, reaching 81.4 mm in Grand Basin, showered Mauritius on Wednesday 03 January that they mentioned about AVA MTS. Even their Forecast Track was Poorly drawn and was not updated.

 

Moreover, their subsequent Bulletins mentioned on 03 January 2018: ‘...Active external cloud bands associated with AVA continue to influence the local weather. The combined effect of moderate tropical storm AVA and the anticyclone to the South of the Mascarenes is causing a windy weather over our region.’

 

Thunder, Lightning and Heavy Rains struck at around 4.15 am on 04 January. 220 mm poured in Providence, Nouvelle Decouverte recorded 166 mm, Rose Belle- 165.8 mm and Mon Bois-137 mm. Power blackout occurred in the North. The Fire and Rescue Services received more than 118 calls resulting in 48 interventions and evacuation. Mudslides and torrents aggravated many regions. A HEAVY RAIN WARNING was issued by the MMS on 04 January.

The explanations given by the MMS are contradictory, wrong, amateur-like and lack scientific clarifications. The same arguments continue to be submitted for the public. Refer to METEOSAT-8 picture.

 

The explanations about Tropical Cyclone IRVIN are the same.

PKANHYE       Updated: 3.30 pm Monday 08 January 2018.

Keep Watch for Updates. 

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