Wednesday, 23 May 2018

  Kilauea Hawaii

  Courtesy: USGS

 

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FAKIR 7th Cyclone NAMED Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS-CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 -WAIVED at 2.10 pm 24 April 2018.

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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

(Pl, wait for updates)

     

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

        

       

 

Keep Watch for updates soon. 

PKANHYE.      Uploaded: 3.08 pm SATURDAY 21 APRIL 2018.

 

Recent Weather Events 

The Mascarene Islands-Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues have been experiencing localized Floods during the last three weeks. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has been issuing a series of Heavy Rain Warnings and of High Waves Warnings regarding Mauritius and Rodrigues. Meteo-France-Reunion has been Alerting Vigilance for almost same Natural Hazards.

The Rainfalls recorded are as follows:

  1. St. Brandon (Outer Island of Mauritius)-177 mm
  2. Mauritius-Mare aux Vacoas-234.6 mm on 05 April;
  3. Rodrigues-(Outer Island of Mauritius)- 43mm on 09 April, 68 mm on 10 April, 76.5 mm on 14 April, 62.8 mm on 15 April and 68 mm on 16 April (all schools were closed). These were exceptional Rains for the drought-stricken island;
  4. Agalega (Outer island of Mauritius)-61.9 mm on 20 April and
  5. Mauritius-Nouvelle Découverte-141.2 mm, Mon Bois-133.4 mm, reaching a minimum of  90 mm in other localities on 21 April.

The striking features are that many regions underwent two to four repeated Disasters. Most residential buildings were submerged by more than one meter of Rain Water mixed with Muds, Sewage ‘materials’ and garbage. The miseries suffered by the population were mainly from loss or damage of household assets. Their complains have been mostly related to lack of drainage systems, or of bad urbanization works carried out by unscrupulous land developers who have diverted and/or blocked natural drains or of landscaping works carried out by sugar estates owners who have diverted and/or covered the natural course of canals or streams. Refer to the pictures above.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has upgraded its Advisories on Sunday 22 April 2018. 93S INVEST has all potential for developing into a Tropical Cyclone within 24 Hours. Besides, another Tropical Depression 96 S INVEST has also the potential for developing into a Cyclone GUAMBE.

 {{{WTXS22 PGTW 220800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 

NEAR 8.1S 51.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 705 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION…

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 220252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER…

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DISTINCT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT…

ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT

GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 24 WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.}}}

 

Météo-Madagascar

Météo-Madagascar Bulletin mentions of a Low Pressure System without the potentianal of Cyclone development within this week.

[Alerte établie ce Dimanche 22-04-2018

Un minimum dépressionnaire est prévue toucher le Nord du pays en fin de semaine sans potentiel de creusement.
Il n'y a pas de risque de cyclogenèse pour cette semaine.
]

NB: It is regrettable to note that Madagascar is undergoing some ‘Riots’ by part of its population.

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services has not mentioned about any Low Pressure or Tropical Disturbance or of Tropical Depression in its Weather Bulletins so far. In fact, apart from 93S INVEST, which will surely be named as Moderate Tropical Storm FAKIR another System-96S INVEST is developing near Diego Garcia. This one will be named as GUAMBE.

 

However, after waking up it issued a Special Communique at 11.00 am just now 23 April 2018:

<<<Special Communique issued at 11h00 on Monday 23 April 2018

A flare up of convective activity in the equatorial trough has been observed over the last few days with a tropical depression to the northeast of Madagascar. This system is evolving in a rather favorable environment with significant active clouds to the south of the Centre.
There are indications that it may develop further by tomorrow.

 At 1000 hours this morning, the system was located near 14.6 degrees south 51.8 degrees east. At first it will move south-southeast and then in a general south easterly direction at a speed of about
25 km/h. On this trajectory the centre of the system is likely to pass at about 230 km to the southwest of Le Morne by tomorrow afternoon.

Active clouds associated with the system will start to influence local weather as from this evening causing
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with thunderstorms. The heavy rains are likely to become more frequent tomorrow Tuesday 24 April 2018 especially to the north and over the Central Plateau.

Considering the heavy rain events of the recent past few days, there are high risks of water accumulation and local flooding as from tomorrow morning.
>>> 

 

 Météo-Madagascar

Météo-Madagascar named the Tropical Depression 93S INVEST as Moderate Tropical Cyclone FAKIR, during midday today Monday 23 April 2018. However, there is no Warnings released so far, just like no Forecast Track is available.

[Tempête Tropicale Modérée FAKIR centrée à 15 heures locales à 340 Km au Nord-Est de St Marie. Vent moyen : 75 Km/h, Rafales : 105 Km/h. Déplacement : Sud-Sud-Est à 25-30 Km/h.
Pas d'alerte cyclone à Madagascar.
]

http://www.meteomadagascar.mg/cyclone

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued, at 17.45 hrs. Monday 23 April 2018, a CYCLONE WARNING Class I for Mauritius.

<<<Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

Mon, Apr 23, 2018.

A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius 
   


First cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 17h45 on Monday 23 April  2018.

The tropical depression which was evolving to the North-East of Madagascar has intensified into a
moderate tropical storm and has been named 'FAKIR' by the Madagascar Meteorological Services. 
At 1600 hours, the moderate tropical storm ''FAKIR was located near 16.2 degrees South and 52.9 degrees east, that is at about 650 km to the North-West of Mauritius.
It continues to move in a general South South Easterly direction at about 25 km/h while continuing to intensify.
On this trajectory, the centre of the system is likely to pass at about 200 km to the South-West of Le Morne by tomorrow afternoon. A recurvature of the trajectory towards the East could bring the centre of '
FAKIR' closer to Mauritius and may cause cyclonic conditions over the island during the day.

Therefore, a
cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius.  

The public in Mauritius is advised to take preliminary precautions. 

Active clouds associated with the system will cause rainy weather as from this evening. The
rains will be moderate to heavy with thunderstorms and will be more frequent tomorrow, especially to the North, the West and over the Central Plateau.

There is a high risk of water accumulation and local flooding in vulnerable areas.   

Wind will blow from the North-East at a mean speed of
25 km/h with gusts of 60 km/h, strengthening gradually. The gusts may reach 100 km/h tomorrow in the forenoon.
The open sea will become gradually rough to rough with northerly swells. The public is advised not to venture at sea.

A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius.>>>
 

 

The Mr. Prem Goulaup, Director of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) stated live, this evening, to the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation that FAKIR has intensified very rapidly from a Tropical Depression into Moderate Storm. He forgot that the Weather Bulletins of the MMS have not at all mentioned the Low Pressure and/or Tropical Disturbance during the last few days. It can be concluded that the MMS, as usual, is unable to keep pace with the Dynamic Advisories of NOAA, JTWC and Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC).

 

FAKIR Moderate Tropical Storm is showing signs of intensification and is moving dangerously towards Reunion and Mauritius. The MMS released, at 10.00 pm Monday 23 April 2018 its second Bulletin Cyclone Warning Class II.

<<<A cyclone warning class 2 is in force in Mauritius.     

Second cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 2200 hours on Monday 23 April  2018.  
 
At 2200 hours, the moderate tropical storm '
FAKIR' was located near 17.0 degrees South and 53.8 degrees East, that is at about 510 km to the North-West of Mauritius.
It is now moving in a South Easterly direction at about 25 km/h while continuing to intensify.
On this trajectory, '
FAKIR' is approaching Mauritius and the centre of the system will  pass at about 150 km to the South-West of Le Morne by tomorrow afternoon. However, the bulk of active clouds associated with the system may pass over Mauritius.   

A recurvature of the trajectory towards the East will bring the centre of '
FAKIR' closer to Mauritius and may cause cyclonic conditions to occur over the island during the day tomorrow. 

A cyclone warning class 2 is in force in Mauritius. >>>    

         

 

The First Advisories of Moderate Tropical Storm FAKIR by JTWC read as follows:

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 231500 WARNING NR 001

REMARKS:

231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 53.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 231122Z SSMI 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...

 

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER MADAGASCAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 28-29C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS)...

 

TC 20S IS TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24...

 

AFTER TAU 24, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...

 

AFTER TAU 48, TC 20S WILL SLOW, DISSIPATE AND TURN QUATORWARD AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EQUATORWARD AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET.}}} 

  Updated: 7.23 pm MONDAY 23 APRIL 2018.

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

<<<No cyclone warning is in force in Mauritius.

Fifth and last cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 1410 hours on Tuesday 24 April 2018.

Barometric pressure has started to rise at Plaisance and Vacoas. At 1400 hours, the severe tropical storm 'FAKIR'was located near 22.6 degrees South and 57.3 degrees East, that is at about 240 km to the South of Souillac.

'FAKIR' has continued to move at a speed of 40 km/hin a South Easterlydirection. On this trajectory the storm is moving away from Mauritius.

No cyclone warning is in force in Mauritius.

However, clouds associated with 'FAKIR' will continue to influence local weather, with intermittent rain. The rain will be moderate at times mainly to the South and South-West. 

Wind will blow from the North-West at a mean speed of 35 km/h with gusts of the order of 65 km/h. 

The sea will be very rough with Southerly swellsof the order of 4-5 metres. These high waves may cause local coastal inundation in low lying areas to the Southern and Western coast of the Island.
The public is strongly advised not to venture at sea.

Highest gusts recorded during the past 24 hours are

Beaux Songes: 112 km/h.

Some of the highest rainfall figures recorded over the past 24 hours are:
Riche en Eau: 105 mm. 
>>> 

Keep Watch for last UPDATE and for Twin 96S INVEST (GUAMBE)  near Diego Garcia.

Click to Watch Live              Watch LIVE RADAR MFR 

                           

PKANHYE.         Updated: 3.28 pm TUESDAY 24 APRIL 2018. 

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