Wednesday, 20 November 2019

       51 Years Before


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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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UN  Climate Activist

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Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 





  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     


World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.



ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.


      Watch MMS LIVE





CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.





DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)





FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.


LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 



''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 





 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.





SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 





THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.


BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.



Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video




      Live with NOAA.






Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean





WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016




HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016





 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin





 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015







JOANINHA Tropical Cyclone is Marking a Record, Another Threat for Rodrigues- Cyclone Warning Class 4 Waived & Strong Wind & High Waves Warnings issued- Mauritius- Heavy Swells Warning Continues.

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JOANINHA Marking a Record is another

Threat for Rodrigues (C Warning Class 4 Waived), Mauritius (Heavy Swells Warning), Reunion and Northern Madagascar saved.


The Weather Dynamics of Season 2018-2019 for the South Indian Ocean confirm the initial understanding that Cyclones and Floods will strike relentlessly this zone. IDAI Tropical Cyclone has devastated, mainly, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, including hundreds of losses of life and economic assets last week. Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH which evolved, since 17 March 2019, mostly in the North-West of Australia, has luckily not reached in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS).


Now the Low Pressure located in the North of Mauritius has evolved very rapidly into a Tropical Disturbance and a Tropical Depression. It has ripened into a Cyclonic System. It has been baptised as Moderate Tropical Storm JOANINHA by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. Rodrigues Island (territory of Mauritius) appears to experience another Direct Threat in the few coming days. The Forecast Tracks by the MMS and by Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) show this dangerous potential of JOANINHA. Further intensifications are also Forecast within 24 hours.

See the Special Weather Bulletin published by the MMS at 14.30 hours this Friday 22 March 2019. It is worthwhile mentioning that 22 March also marks the World Water Day and 23 March is the World Meteorological Day.


/// Special Weather Bulletin

Fri, Mar 22, 2019

Special Weather Bulletin issued at 1430 hours on 22 March 2019

The tropical depression which was evolving to the north east of St Brandon has now reached the Moderate Tropical Storm intensity and at 1330 hours it has been named JOANINHA by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.  At 1400 hours it was centered at about 340 km to the north east of St Brandon. Joaninha is now moving in a general southerly direction at about 8 km per hour.

Evolving in a favourable environment, the Moderate Tropical Storm will continue to intensify further. The system will move in a general southerly direction and will pass at about 240 km to the south east of St Brandon on the night of Saturday to Sunday at its closest distance.

As from Sunday 24 morning, most Weather Prediction Models are recurving the system towards the south south east and then south east. On this new trajectory, Joaninha will approach Rodrigues and represents a potential threat to the Island. There is still lot of uncertainties as to its final track. The latest run of weather prediction models brings the centre of Joaninha within 30 km radius of Plaine Corail early Monday 26 March 2019 morning.

Weather in Mauritius will gradually become cloudy with passing showers as from tonight. The showers will become more frequent during the week-end. Wind will strengthen gradually with gusts of 65 km/h on Saturday 23 March 2019. Gusts will increase to reach 80 km/h on Sunday 24 March 2019.

Weather at Rodrigues will be cloudy with passing showers. The showers will be moderate to heavy as from tonight with isolated thunderstorms. Gusts will increase gradually to reach 65 km per hour on Saturday and 90 km per hour on Sunday.
The Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the evolution of this system and will regularly inform all concerned.

The next Special Bulletin will be issued at 10.00 hours on Saturday 23 March 2019.


 Uploaded: 7.57 pm FRIDAY 22 MARCH 2019. 


Météo-France-Réunion (RMSC) released its Advisories on Friday 22 March as follows:


12H: 22/03/2019 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

24H: 23/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 23/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

48H: 24/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

60H: 24/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 25/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE


96H: 26/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

120H: 27/03/2019 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE]]]



JOANINHA has intensified into Severe Tropical Storm yesterday and Cyclone Warning Class I was issued for Rodrigues. It has now been ungraded to Tropical Cyclone today and the Warning has also been upgraded to Class II. Lots of devastations, regarding agriculture, farming and fishing activities, are forecast for the small Island where about 40,000 inhabitants live. Moreover, Heavy Swells Warning  for Mauritius was equally released by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS). The populations of these zones are requested to adapt and to implement all precautions and to keep watch on other Warnings. 


NB: JOANINHA marks a Record in Cyclogenesis for the South Indian Ocean Season 2018-2019 reaching 12, including KENANGA and SAVANNAH. which evolved in the North-West zone of Australia.


Besides, March also marks the peak of Monsoon System for South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO).


Updated: 11.00 am SUNDAY 24 MARCH 2019.


The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), on one hand, maintains Heavy Swells Warning for Mauritius. Storm Surge may reach 5-6 metres high around Mauritius. Besides, Météo-France-Réunion has also issued High Waves Warning for the North-East of Reunion Island.

On the other hand the MMS has issued, at 10.20 am today Monday 25 March 2019, Cyclone Warning Class 3 for Rodrigues Island. It appears that Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA is highly likely to make landfall across Rodrigues Island towards the North-East passing through Pointe Cotton by tomorrow afternoon.


MMS- 10th Cyclone Bulletin for Rodrigues released at 10.10 am Monday 25 March 2019 (etd)

/// At 10.00 hours Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA was centred at a distance of about 230 km North-North-East of Rodrigues Island- at Latitude 17.70 South and Longitude 62.40 East. JOANINHA is moving in South-South-East direction at a speed of about 05 km/h. The atmospheric pressure at the centre is estimated at about 955 Hecto-Pascals (HPa) and Gusts at the centre are about 200km/h...

JOANINHA is approaching dangerously towards Rodrigues and continues to intensify. Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA represents a direct threat for Rodrigues. ///


Refer to the explanation below regarding Protocols for issue of Cyclone Warnings for Mauritius and Rodrigues, by the MMS.



Class I

Issued 36 to 48 hours before Mauritius or Rodrigues is likely to be affected by gusts reaching 120 km/h. 

Class II:

Issued so as to allow, as far as practicable, 12 hours of daylight before the occurrence of gusts of 120 km/h.

Class III:

Issued so as to allow, as far as practicable, 6 hours of daylight before the occurrence of gusts of 120 km/h.

Class IV:

Issued when gusts of 120 km/h have been recorded in some places and are expected to continue. ///



 Updated:  01.16 pm MONDAY 25 MARCH 2019.  


According to the 13th Weather Bulletin released by the MMS at 19.10 hours on Monday 25 March 2019, the Cyclone Warning has been upgraded into Warning Class 4. Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA was located at about 160 km North of Rodrigues Island. It is tracking towards the South-East at 08 km/h. The MMS forecasts that JOANINHA will pass at 30 km North-East of Rodrigues at around mid-day tomorrow Tuesday 26 March.

Gusts reaching 200 km/h are recorded at the Centre of JOANINHA. Cyclone Warning Class 4 has been issued because Gusts of over 120 km/h have been registered as explained above (Class IV) and are as follows: 

Montagne du Sable: 158 km/h

Pointe Canon: 150 km/h.  

Patate Theophile: 151 km/h.

Plaine Corail: 133 km/h.

Citronelle: 140 km/h. 


Besides, Storm Surges ARE INEVITABLE.

Updated: 10.50 pm MONDAY 25 MARCH 2019.


JOANINHA has intensified further this morning and has now reached the status of Intense Tropical Cyclone. According to Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the RMSC of South Indian Ocean, Gusts of 175 km have been recorded at the centre of the Cyclone. The Atmospheric Pressure is estimated at 948 Hpa and JOANINHA is tracking South-East at 11km/h and is forecast to maintain it intensity until Thursday 28 March 2019. No doubt, Extreme Cyclonic Conditions are prevailing in Rodrigues Island and that is why Cyclone Warning Class 4 is maintained. Moreover, Heavy Rains are expected with High Sea Waves and air and maritime traffic have also been cancelled.

According to Scientist Rob Gutro of NASA/JAXA IMERG estimates 19mm of Rains per hour have been falling on 24 March 2019.

Cyclone Warning Class 4 has been waived by the MMS this afternoon at 14.10 hrs today Tuesday 26 March.


NB: In fact, JOANINHA passed near Pointe Cotton North-East of Rodrigues and not within 30 km radius of Plaine Corail (South) early Monday 26 March 2019 morning as forecast by International Models.

///Special weather report issued at 1610hrs this Tuesday 26 March 2019

Strong wind and High Wave warning for Rodrigues valid until 10h00 on Wednesday 27 March 2019.

The intense tropical cyclone Joaninha evolving to the east of Rodrigues is causing strong southerly winds to blow over the island. Gusts may reach 100 km/h in places.

The cyclone is also generating
heavy swells of the order of 5-7 meters which are influencing the sea state around Rodrigues.

Also storm surge will cause a rise in the sea water level of about 1.5 metres above the normal tides which will result in the inundation of low lying coastal areas particularly to the east, south and south-west…

(French Version) A 1600 heures, l'intense cyclone tropical Joaninha était centré à une distance d'environ 120 km presque à l'est de Pointe Cotton, soit en latitude 19.5 degrés sud et longitude 64.7 degrés est. Il continue à se déplacer dans une direction du sud-est à environ 10 km/h. Sur cette trajectoire, Joaninha continue à s'éloigner de Rodrigues…

Aucun avertissement de cyclone n'est en vigueur à Rodrigues.///


Thereafter, JOANINHA it will weaken gradually into Extra-Tropical transition/evolution, given the impact of the Robust and Cold Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) or the Anti-Cyclone on it.


Updated: 9.52 pm TUESDAY 26 MARCH 2019.


Conclusion and Comments

According to information released by Prime Minister Jugnauth, regarding the impacts of Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA on Rodrigues island (an autonomous territory), 434 persons were admitted in the refugee centres because of broken/damaged houses; 4 others were injured and 99.3% of the population was deprived of electricity caused mainly by fallen trees and roofs. The Commissioner for Environment and Agriculture for Rodrigues stated to the media that about 80% of agricultural produce have been affected; that supply of foodstuffs, including seeds, etc. are on the way by shipment, in addition to pest control resources which is affecting maize cultivations. Troops from the Response Team and technicians have also flown to the Destroyed Island, after resumption of air traffic, for helping the rehabilitation processes.   

NB: Rodrigues Island already experienced Cyclonic Conditions during the passage of Twin Tropical Cyclones FUNANI and GELENA 05 to 09 February 2019. Besides, 12 Cyclones have crossed the South Indian Ocean since November 2018, including Flash Floods and Torrential Rains in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion, which are also known as the Mascarene Islands.


Besides, IDAI Tropical Cyclone which evolved and lingered during several days of the second week of March, in the Mozambique Channel, is considered by WMO and UN Secretary General, as the Worst Cyclone for the African continent. According to media more than 600 people died in the Cyclone and Flooded areas in Mozambique, hundred others in Malawi and Zimbabwe.

This Channel is also known as the Hot-Spot of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin (SWIOB).


All these Weather Events justify the Predictions that the Summer Season 2018-2019 will be Disastrous for the South-West Indian Ocean Basin (SWIOB). Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) is, undoubtedly, a Complementary Component to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Calamities. This was clearly stated in the articles at in the beginning of the Cyclonic Season 2018-2019. Please, read more.


Additional information.

It is very sad to say at this conjecture that 30 March 2019 also marks the 6th anniversary when 11 lost their life, including lots of economic losses, in the First Mega Flash Flood of Mauitius. Neither the ex-director of the MMS nor the ex-Speaker of the National Assembly of Mauritius did understand my Prediction of the Deadly Weather made 10 days beforehand. Besides, the culprits have not yet been tried despite the Judicial Enquiry. 

Please, read more: 


Watch Live with METEOSAT-8 

Uploaded from Bihar, India. 

(Updated late with much difficulty because of electricity cuts and very erratic internet connections, despite Digital India.) 

PKANHYE.  Final update: 06.35 pm SUNDAY 31 MARCH 2019.


Follow me on:   ,   &  Videos.

Read More: 

World Meteorological Day 23rd March 2019-The SUN, the EARTH and the WEATHER;

HALEH Intense Tropical Cyclone 9th Cyclone and Weather Systems visiting South Indian Ocean Within 3-4 Months’ Time of Season 2018-2019;

HALEH Intense Tropical Cyclone 9th Cyclone and Weather Systems visiting South Indian Ocean Within 3-4 Months’ Time of Season 2018-2019;

FUNANI and GELENA Moderate Tropical Twin Storms Trigger Hazardous Situations for Mascarene Islands Cyclone Warning Class 2 for Rodrigues;

94S INVEST-ALCIDE First Cyclone Season 2018-2019 Heralded by Traditional Knowledge and Ahead of International Scientific Centres, etc.

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