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SOUTH-WEST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM 2019 DYNAMICS- Onset in KERALA Zone & Withdrawal from Northern India

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SOUTH-WEST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM 2019 DYNAMICS

Cyclone Formation and Monsoon Onset concurrent in KERALA Zone 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Delhi released the Onset of the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) on 15 April 2019. The departure is normally forecast as from the Andaman Sea on 20 May 2019. But, the Weather System has made an Early entry on 18 May 2019. 25 May marks the habitual advancement on Sri Lanka and it touches the Southern India-Kerala on 1st June each year. IMD mentions in its “‘Summary of the Forecast Assessment Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal.” 

However, it is worthwhile noting that Thunderstorms: Lightning, Rain, Heat Waves, Squalls and Hails have been showering in various parts of India since 06 April 2019. Besides, Phenomenal and Disastrous Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI (FONI) has already triggered a ‘Weather Model’ in this Zone. Given, that Weather Systems: Cyclones, Floods, Heat Waves, etc. have now been observed to be more Frequent and Intense than usual, the Monsoon 2019 seems to be causing Impacts in this same pattern coupled with an Early arrival. So, the population of India, including those of the adjoining states, are requested to stay alert throughout the season. Losses of life, of livelihood and of economic resources, are therefore subject to Wise Disaster Management by all stakeholders.

 

[[[Press Release

Dated: 18th May, 2019: Time: 1300 hours IST

Advance of southwest monsoon into south Andaman Sea

In view of the strengthening & deepening of cross equatorial flow and enhanced cloudiness and rainfall in association with a cyclonic circulation at mid-tropospheric levels over Andaman Sea, southwest Monsoon has advanced into South Andaman Sea, some parts of South Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands, today, the 18th May 2019. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through lat. 5N/ Long 81E, lat.7N/ Long 88E, Car Nicobar and lat. 13N/ Long 99E

(Fig.1).

Further advance during next 3-4 days:

Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of South Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Sea & Andaman Islands during next 3-4 days.

Major features associated with onset of monsoon and advance:

o Widespread rainfall occurred over Nicobar Islands during last 48 hours.

o Westerly wind has strengthened in the lower levels (upto 15 knots) and deepened (upto 6 km) over the southern Latitudes covering south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and southern parts of south Bay of Bengal.

o There is persistent cloudiness from 15th May onwards over south Andaman Sea, adjoining south Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands. The Satellite (INSAT-3D) derived Outgoing Long wave Radiation over the region is less than 200 W/m2.

In addition to the above features, the following developments are also noticed.

o A cyclonic circulation lies over Andaman Sea at mid-tropospheric levels.

o An east-west shear zone runs along Latitude 7N across south Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands and south Andaman Sea.

Forecast & warnings for Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 5 days

Heavy rainfall warning:

o Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely on 18th & 19th May; and light to moderate rainfall at many places during 20th to 22nd May over Nicobar Islands.

o Light to moderate rainfall at a few places very likely on 18th May, many places on 19th May; and at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places during 20th to 22nd May, 2019 over Andaman Islands.

Wind Warning:

o Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands & adjoining south Bay of Bengal on 18th & 19th May; and over north Andaman Sea, Andaman Islands and adjoining south Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea during 20th to 22nd May, 2019.]]]

 

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/alert_view.php?ff=20190415_al_759

 

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/weather.mp4  

 

Uploaded from Arrah, Bihar, India: 12.05 pm FRIDAY 24 MAY 2019.

 

Monsoon Halt.

Mother Nature has halted the progress of the South-West Asian Monsoon System for a few days. Most of the Rain Clouds of the Northern India Ocean have shifted towards the Southern Hemisphere. The sky in Patna, Bihar, India has been almost clear since 25 May 2019. Nevertheless, Heat Waves accompanied with Squall and Dust Storms have been noticed as Observed from the Ground. Refer to the picture from IMD Insat-3D.

IMD Temperature Status published on 26 May 2019 mentions: “Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 46.8°C was recorded at Chandrapur (Vidarbha)… Nagpur Sonegaon (Vidarbha) recorded the maximum temperature of 45.8°C”.

Mauritius, located in the Southern Hemisphere, has recorded a maximum of 51 mm of Rainfalls during 24-25 May 2019, although it is the Winter Season there. Furtheremore, Reunion which is also called Sister Island of Mauritius, experienced a Freezing Temperature of 1.40 Celsius during the same time. It is worthwhile to note that May is not the peak of Winter in this Zone, but rather the initial stage, as the Summer Season has just ended. However, the Monsoon is Forecast to Advance with a lateness of 5-6 days. So, the normal entry on 01 June in Kerala-Bihar Belt is expected to take place after 6-7 May. Right now, Lightning Dynamics are active in the South and South-East zone of the Sub-Continent. This also indicates that the Intensity of the Monsoon is highly likely to increase gradually.]]]

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/heatwave.php

 

Updated from Patna, Bihar, India. 

 

Updated: 6.43 pm SUNDAY 26 MAY 2019.

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has stated yesterday that the Cyclogenesis in the waters of the Arabian Sea, adjoining KERALA has a Low Probability of cyclone formation. However, it has also mentioned that the Cyclone formation is highly likely to intensify within 72 hours. 

In the event of further intensification, the Normal Monsoon will definitely be disturbed, as most of the masses of Rain Clouds will make a shift at Sea.

According to the IMD Press Release dated 08 June 2019 mention has been made about the Onset of South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) as from KERALA. See below.

 

[[[ Press Release       Dated: 08th June 2019

Time of Issue: 1300 hrs IST

Sub: Onset of Monsoon 2019 over Kerala

Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, the 08th June 2019.

o In view of the enhanced cloudiness, strengthening of westerlies and persistent cyclonic circulation in the lower & mid-levels over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood, the Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of South Arabian Sea, most parts of Lakshadweep area, some parts of Kerala & south Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin – Maldives area, some more parts of Southwest, Southeast & Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal.

o Thus the Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, the 08th June 2019, against the normal date of 1st June.

o The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through lat. 110N/ Long 600E, lat. 110N/ Long 700E, Amini Divi, Kochi, Madurai, lat.110N/ Long 860E, lat. 160N/ Long 910E, and lat. 200N/ Long 940E on today, the 8th June 2019.

Figure-1 shows the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) as on today.

Further advance during next 48 hours

Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of South Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area & Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, Southwest, Southeast, Eastcentral & Northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of Central Arabian Sea and Westcentral Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

Advance of southwest monsoon over Northeastern States

Conditions are also becoming favorable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into

southern parts of Northeast India during next 48 hours.

Prevailing meteorological conditions

Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Lakshadweep area and parts of Kerala, during the past 3 days.

Westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels (upto 20 knots) and deepened (upto 4 km) over the southern Latitudes. Westerly/ West-southwesterly winds were observed upto 600 hPa (approximately upto 4.5km) over the South Arabian Sea.

There is persistent convection (cloudiness indicated by Outgoing Long wave Radiation values <200 Wm-1) from 3rd June.

In addition to the above features, the following developments are also noticed.

An off-shore trough at mean Sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast.

 

A cyclonic circulation extending upto 4.5 km. above mean sea level lies over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea. Under its influence, a low pressure area is very likely to form over Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 48 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify gradually. ]]] 

 

Keep Watch for updates.

Updated from Patna, Bihar, India.

 

PKANHYE.   1.00 pm SUNDAY 09 JUNE 2019.

 

CLICK HERE to Watch MONSOON Withdrawal

 

 PKANHYE Updated from MAURITIUS:

11.01 am MONDAY 02 SEPTEMBER 2019.

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