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HIKAA Cyclonic Storm Arabian Sea Withdrawal of South-West Asian Monsoon

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HIKAA Cyclonic Storm in Arabian Sea

Withdrawal of South-West Asian Monsoon System

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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU was named on 10 June 2019 at a time when the South-West Asian Monsoon System had started its Onset on 08 June (though a week late). As it evolved in the Arabian Sea, it moved towards Gujrat, India causing lots of misfortunes to the population until 17 June.

The Depression located in the Arabian Sea southwards of Gujrat has intensified into a Deep Depression on 22 September 2019. It is noteworthy that the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) is expected to Withdraw as from September 2019, but is still showering Heavy Rains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD)has issued its first Bulletin on at 12.20 hours on Sunday 22 September 2019. The Cyclonic System has been named as HIKAA Cyclonic Storm, on Monday 23 September 2019 after further upgrade.

[[[Time of issue: 1220 hours IST Dated: 22-09-2019 

Sub: Depression over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast.
22-05-2017-185.jpg - 165.40 kB

Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian sea off Gujarat coast and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22nd September, 2019 near latitude 19.8°N and longitude 69.4°E, about 150 km southwest of Veraval (Gujarat), 610 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan) and 1220 km east-southeast of Muscat (Oman).

It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hours.

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning:

Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal districts of Saurashtra and Kutch during next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.

(ii) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to prevail along & off Gujarat coast during next 48 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to prevail over East central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea which is likely to become 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph from today, the 22nd evening. It is likely to become gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea from 23rd evening for subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to decrease thereafter gradually becoming squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph over northwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea from 24th evening.

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition is very likely to be very rough along & off Gujarat coast during next 48 hours. It is also very likely to be very rough over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea on 22nd and becoming very rough to high from 23rd evening for subsequent 24 hours. It would become very rough over northwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea from 23rd evening for subsequent 48 hours.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian along & off Gujarat coast during next 48 hours. They are advised not to venture into eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea during next 48 hours and into westcentral & adjoining northwest Arabian Sea during 23rd evening and 25th.]]] (etd).

 

IMD has published its second Bulletin at 11.30 am today 23 September 2019 as follows (etd):

[[[BULLETIN NO. : 06(ARB/02/2019)TIME OF ISSUE: 1130HOURS IST DATED: 23.09.2019

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea. The Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea moved nearly westwards with a speed of 17kmphduring past 06hoursand lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 23rd September,2019 over the same region near latitude 20.4°N and longitude 65.7°E, about 490km west-southwest of Veraval (Gujarat), 520km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan) and 710km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°Nduring early hours of 25thSeptember2019 as a deep depression. It is likely to intensify further during next 24 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.

Gale wind, speed reaching 60-70kmph gusting to 80kmph very likely to prevail over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea, which is likely to become 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea by 23rdeveningand decrease thereafter becoming 55-65kmph gusting to 75kmph by 24th morning. It is likely to be squally wind speed reaching 55-65kmph gusting to 75kmph,over northwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea and is likely to increase gradually becoming75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 24thmorningfor subsequent 06hours.It will gradually decrease thereafter becoming 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph by 25thmorning along & off Oman coast.

(ii) Sea condition. The sea condition is very likely to be rough along &off Gujarat coast during next 12hours. Sea conditions will be high over northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and very rough during subsequent 12 hours. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over northwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and high during subsequent 24 hours. It will become rough to very rough thereafter.

(iii) Fishermen Warning.

The fishermen are advised not to venture into northeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea till 24thmorningand into northwest & adjoining west central Arabian Sea till 25thmorning.The next bulletin will be issued at 1430hrs IST of 23rd September,2019.

(Neetha K Gopal)Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi. ]]]

 

NB: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has mentioned almost the same evolution and forecast Track of Cyclonic Storm HIKAA.

<<< WTIO31 PGTW 230300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002//

RMKS/:

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH A REGION OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PREVENTING SBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF MASIRAH, OMAN AFTER TAU 36 AND TRACK INLAND. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN

INTERACTION…

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET>>>

 

Verify with IMD CLICK here.

 

Watch Monsoon Warnings here:

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/allindiawxwarningbulletin.php

Uploaded: 13.51 pm Monday 23 SEPTEMBER 2019.

 

IMD’s PRESS RELEASE-3 issued at 12.30 hours IST on 24-09-2019 states that HIKAA Cyclonic Storm intensified into a SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM on 24 September 2019 and into VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.

[[[Sub: Cyclonic Storm “Hikaaintensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea.

Yesterday’s cyclonic storm “HIKAA over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the same evening (1430 hours IST) over northeast and adjoining northwest & central Arabian Sea…

Moving nearly westwards, it further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm in the early morning (0530 hours IST) of today, the 24th September, 2019. Continuing to move nearly westwards, it lay centred in the morning (0830 hours IST) of today, the 24th September over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 20.1°N and longitude 60.3°E,about 880km west-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 160km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman)and about 280km east-northeast of Duqm (Oman)

It is likely to maintain its intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for next six hours and weaken gradually thereafter. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and cross Oman coast between lat.19. 5°N and 20°N close to Duqm around 2030 hours IST of 24thSeptember2019 as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 110-120kmph gusting to 135kmph.

Warnings:

(i) Wind warning Gale wind, speed reaching140-150 kmph gusting to 165kmph is prevailing over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea around system centre. It will gradually decrease becoming 120-130kmph gusting to 145kmph by 24theveningalong & off Oman coast and over and around Masirah during next six hours. It would further weaken and become 110-120kmph gusting to 130kmph   over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea along & off Oman coast at the time of landfall.

(ii) Sea condition

The Sea conditions will be phenomenal over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and high to very rough during subsequent 12 hours and improve thereafter.

(iii) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into northwest & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea till25thmorning.The system is under continuous surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed regularly.]]]

Finally, as forecasted by IMD, VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HIKAA has weakened into a DEPRESSION over Oman on 25 September 2019:

[[[The Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over Oman moved nearly westwards with a speed of 19kmph during past 06 hours, weakened into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 25th September 2019 near latitude 19.5°N and longitude 55.5°E about 220km west of Duqm and 110km west-southwest of Haima. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards, weaken into a depression during next three hours and into a well-marked low during subsequent three hours.]]]


PKANHYE    Updated: 10.50 am WEDNESDAY 25 SEPTEMBER 2019.

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