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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

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COLIN 4th TROPICAL CYCLONE 2013-2014.

Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

COLIN:Cyclone-Tornado-Flood in formation-04 January 2014

COLIN: CYCLONE-TORNADO-FLOOD?

The South West Indian Ocean is under the stress of accelerated cyclonic systems, as stated in my previous articles. In my great document dated 28 May 2011, I have mentioned in my Predictions (2007-2012), that cyclones like Gervaise and Hollanda (Mauritius) and Kalunde (Rodrigues) will visit us after 2012; moreover, the cyclones will form in Tornado types. We have all seen that the dawn of year 2013 has opened with Cyclone DUMILE (01-05 January) and Floods of 13 February and of 30 March 2013. The dusk of 2013 has closed with the same outlook with Floods of November and with Intense Cyclones AMARA, BRUCE and BEJISA-with lots of mini-Tornadoes.

After the terrible episodes of Tropical Cyclones AMARA, BRUCE and BEJISA, the 4th Tropical Cyclone is in formation around the South East of Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar. In fact, this zone of the Indian Ocean is under the complex stress of 5 different weather systems:

  1. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the north is bringing lots of humidity, warm sea surface temperature and active rain clouds;
  2. There are two zones of Low Pressure of 1000 hectopascals combined with land surface temperature (340) in the West, namely from South-Eastern-Africa. These are interacting with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is responsible for the Floods with low moving rain clouds and it is forecast by NOAA/CPC to be enhanced during this week. Currently, all these regions of Southern Africa are experiencing showers and thunderstorms. All these indicate the possible formation of Cyclone COLIN;
  3. The South East Trade is blowing a mild air stream with some showers from the East;
  4. Intense Tropical Cyclone BEJISA is still active with an atmospheric pressure of 996-1000 hectopascals. It is moving towards the South West at about 19 kph and its remnants are still trailing bands of clouds and is evolving as an Extra-Tropical System. However, it is expected to weaken gradually, in a few days time, in the cold waters of the South Pole. 
  5. The Oscillation of the South Pole, which I call the ANTARCTIC CIRCUMPOLAR CURRENT (ACC), appears surprisingly weak or suppressed these days. That is why it is incapable, contrarily, to neutralize or dissolve BEJISA.

At this conjecture, Mozambique, Comoros Islands, Madagascar, Agalega, Tromelin, Reunion, Mauritius, St. Brandon and Rodrigues are in the middle of this zone. Therefore, humidity, heat, thunderstorms, rainfall, fog are inevitable. Click here to see live.

The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA predicted ‘below average rainfall’ for period 25-31 December 2013, without formation for cyclones, except for Australia where Cyclone CHRISTINE caused havoc. However, Intense Cyclone BEJISA formed, developed rapidly and made landfall in Reunion with unprecedented gusts reaching 210 kph coupled with small tornadoes, with floods rating more than 670 mm in 24 hours, with loss of one life and 15 people injured (2 seriously) and with lots of material damage including food crops. Moreover, Mauritius also experienced rainfall reaching 106 mm and damage caused by small tornadoes in three different localities.

This is what researchers and scientists, involved in Climate and Weather issues, call ‘variability’ and ‘uncertainty’. In other words, there is room for more perfection and for more dynamism. At the same time this induces us to conclude that there are other information and findings that need to be sought and made. This is what I always try to do; that is, to supplement by applying TRADITIONAL AND INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE, which are approved by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and by other institutions like the Early Warning System.

On the other side, while disregarding NOAA, I Predicted Cyclone BEJISA and also of being of Tornado type with moderate rainfall until 05 December in Mauritius. This is what happened. The rainfall recorded today by MMS is as follows:

29.4 mm in Providence; 24 mm in Mon Bois; 28.4 mm in Souillac; 22.6 mm in Rose Belle; 23.3 mm in Riche en Eau; 31.6 mm in Plaisance; 6.4 mm in Vacoas and 6.8 mm in Moka.

Initially, NOAA had forecast neither formation of cyclones nor rainfall for the following week 01-07 January 2014. After the episode of BEJISA, the Climate Prediction Center has updated forecasting formation of Cyclones and ‘above average rainfall’ and 'probability of cyclones formation'. So far, there are possibilities around the ITCZ and in the Mozambique Channel which is favourable for Tornado types of cyclones, given this is a zone of warm land-and-sea-surface-temperatures. It is highly likely that such types of weather system be called CYCLONADOFLOOD, that is a triple combination of cyclone+tornado+flood.

 

                                                                                      

 One feature that is highly probable is rainfall moderate-to-heavy in Mauritius, but heavier in Reunion Island. In the meantime, clouds are continuing to move at high altitude together with other layers. According to my findings Mother Earth is pregnant since 2011 with rain, snow and storms and is delivering everything and everywhere. 

It is in this region that Cyclone HARUNA (19-22 February 2013) formed and evolved, just after the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013. This cyclone did not visit Mauritius, but heavy rainfall occurred during many days reaching 97 mm in certain regions. This pattern is highly likely to repeat during a week or so. The danger is that the MJO may become more active this year. (Click here to see NASA 3D Image of HARUNA, wait for animation.)

So, keep watch for updates.

P.KANHYE.                                                       05 JANUARY 2014.

 UPDATE: 13 JANUARY 2014.

 COLIN, COLIN 1, COLIN 2 & DELIWE-

 CONFUSION BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

 The Meteorological Services of Mauritius announced, on Thursday 09 January 2014, through the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation, that the depression that was evolving in the South of Mozambique Channel has been named by Madagascar as COLIN (1).

 The following day the MMS announced that the Tropical Depression that was evolving around Cocos Island has intensified and has been named COLIN (2) by the MMS. Such information is very confusing and misleading for one and all. The question that we should ask is; why Tropical Cyclone COLIN was not recognized, given the different atmospheric systems prevailing in that particular zone of Mozambique and Madagascar?

 Let me give some explanation. Madagascar is one of the countries where Meteorological Services are poorly offered. In fact, Malagasy Weather is under the control/supervision of NOAA/US. A few days before the first depression was named, NOAA had already identified a Tropical Disturbance around Cocos Island which was initially called 93 S pending its intensification and evolution. Given, that this one intensified quickly and was moving at 27 kph towards South West, its name was retained. In such conjecture, 'DELIWE' should have been named instead of COLIN. On the other hand, the first one of the Mozambique Channel dissolved quickly by the active Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), and moved towards the South West. Click here to see live

 Another issue of concern is that COLIN was another Tropical Cyclone that originated and evolved in the North East of Australia during 25 February to 6 March 1976. Using same name, especially at a recent past may cause confusion to researchers and people referring to historical cyclones. Click here to see.

 Moreover, I have tried to solicit twice the intervention of Mr David Grimes, the President of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), including others, to clarify the services of Meteorology. I have noticed that out of the 57 Members of  WMO of Region 1, to which Mauritius forms part, around 17-20 countries do not provide proper services, including the MMS. But, no reply or follow up has been received.  

 Forecast for COLIN 2 (DELIWE):

INTENSE CYCLONE COLIN (DELIWE) Forecast.

 This Intense Cyclone will move towards the South West gradually to dissolve in the cold waters of the South Pole in a few days. But, the clouds that are moving from the ITCZ will enhance moderate rainfall in Rodrigues. So far, moderate rainfall reaching 38.2 mm has occurred in Mauritius, as mentioned above. Click picture to enlarge.

 NB: My earlier weather forecast for 2013-2014 has turned out to be true. With such Dynamic Weather Systems, the MJO is highly likely to be enhanced, thus paving the way for Floods just like those of March 2008, of February and March 2013. CLICK HERE TO SEE NASA IMAGERY

So, keep watch.

This UPDATE has been a little late because of internet service discrepancies.

Read more: BEJISA 3rd TROPICAL CYCLONE 2013-2014

                INTENSE CYCLONES AMARA, BRUCE AND OTHERS

                FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE 'AMARA' 2013-2014

 P.KANHYE.                                 13 JANUARY 2014.

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