Sunday, 20 October 2019

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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

  CLICK HERE TO WATCH

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FIRST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEASON 2014-2015

Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

FIRST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEASON 2014-2015

(SEE UPDATES AND BREAKING NEWS BELOW)

The Northern and Southern Hemispheres have almost reached the usual Equinox-period when day and night have same duration; sunrise and sunset 6.00 am/pm. The Summer Season 2014-2015 appears to be knocking at the door, as the transition has nearly ended. It is worthwhile to note that the Deadly South West Monsoon is expected to withdraw this week from the North West of India, but the Eastern region is forecast to experience heavy rainfall for the next week. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is carrying heat, humidity, thunderstorms and rain clouds from the Pacific Ocean and is shifting the weather system towards the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean.

The remnants of the Asian Monsoon are moving in the zone of the South West Indian Ocean as bands of Rain Clouds. (Click Satellite picture to enlarge). The largest system found in the North East appears to be characteristic of a ‘Tropical Disturbance’. The Atmospheric Pressure in this area is around 1012 hectopascals. But the system does not appear to be well organized, as it is under the threat of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which is still active with the flow of some moderate cold winds. The South East Trade Wind (SETW) is blowing as usual and influencing the Indian Ocean. Click here to verify.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has not identified any Disturbance up to now, just like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US/NOAA/NWS). Click pictures to see. 

However, the eastern quadrant of this ‘Tropical Disturbance’ is highly likely to move gradually towards the area of Rodrigues Island next week. The band of Rain Clouds found in the Northern Zone of Madagascar is in the convection area of the ITCZ and of Sub-Saharan System. It is also propelled by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is though in a Low Phase. It is forecast to fuse with the clouds that are converging from Central South-West Indian Ocean. The
combination of all the three systems will highly likely shower Moderate Rainfalls in Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion during the coming week-20 to 28 September.

Observations

The Cyclonic Season 2013-2014 has generated 10 Cyclones most of which have been phenomenal:

  •  
  1. AMARA (16- December 2013)- Intense Tropical Cyclone;
  2. BRUCE (16-25 December 2013)-Phenomenon escaped from Cocos Island, but not considered seriously by the Mauritius Meteorological Services;
  3. BEJISA (29 December 2013-02 January 2014)-Phenomenon of Tornado type;
  4. COLIN (10-14 January 2014);
  5. DELIWE (16-17 January 2014;
  6. EDILSON (05-06 February 2014)-Phenomenon of Vortex type;
  7. FOBANE (07-16 February 2014)-Phenomenon of Hybrid type or Extra-Tropical type;
  8. GUITO (19-23 February 2014)-Phenomenon of Hybrid type or Extra-Tropical type;
  9. HELENE (28 March-02 April 2014)-Phenomenon of type ‘Very Heavy Rainmaker’ according to NASA and one of Most Intense Cyclones of the Mozambique Channel with a Low Pressure reaching 925 hectopascals and showering 279 mm of rain in 48 hours in Mayotte, according to Météo-France and

     10. IVANOE (05-07 April 2014).

           You are invited to read articles on all these cyclones on the website by clicking on the names.

  • The Summer Season 2012-2013 witnessed the emergence of a Phenomenon. Moderate Tropical Cyclone ANAIS took birth (EARLIER THAN USUAL) on Wednesday 14 October 2012, 175 km North East of St. Brandon at Latitude 15.0 South and at Longitude 65.00 East. The Meteorological Services of Mauritius (MMS) had not yet uploaded, in its website,  the cyclone names for that current Season. I was in the office of the MMS Director Mr Dunputh, on the 17 October, to discuss the issue and on '13 October' which is recognised as Disaster Reduction Day by the UN.
  • The list of cyclone names for the Season 2014-2015 is not yet available at the MMS website.

PREDICTIONS

The Cyclonic Season 2014-2015 is forecast to be very dynamic like the previous one. Moreover, Cyclones like Gervaise (5-7 February 1975) which reached gusts of 280 kph and like Hollanda (9-11 February 1994) with gusts of 216 kph, are ripe to visit Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues, as my Predictions 2007-2012.

 

So, keep watch. 

P.KANHYE.                                                                             19 SEPTEMBER 2014.

  

UPDATED: 02 OCTOBER 2014.

 

The ‘Tropical Disturbance’ has evolved as forecast on 19 September 2014. But, the system moved a little above the Mascarenes because:

  • the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), though in a Low Phase, accelerated the 'Tropical Disturbance' towards the South East of the Indian Ocean;
  • the cold winds, though blowing with an Atmospheric Pressure varying between 1024-1032 hectopascals from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), did not neutralize it and
  • the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) appears to be very vigorous and thus maintained its usual Summer Mode despite the prevalence of Atmospheric Pressure of 1012 hectopascals.

    

        
       

 

    

 

 

  

 

Observations

 

  1. The Weather System showered Light Rain-3.2mm and 6.8mm at Providence and Mon Bois respectively on 26 September. 37.8 mm of Rainfall occurred in Providence and 37.8mm in Mon Bois and Lesser Rain (12-29 mm) in almost all regions of Mauritius on 27 September 2014. It is conclusive that the Predictions (20-28 September) made on 19 September 2014 are at a High Level;
  2. There were bands of thick and scattered clouds which moved from the North West direction to the South East of the Indian Ocean during a few hours on Sunday 28 September. This appears to have been unnoticed by the MMS. Usually, this is the typical channel of the MJO and
  3. The list of cyclone names is not yet available at the website of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS).

 

NB: 50-60 mm of Precipitations, carried by the approach of Another Tropical Disturbance, are Highly Likely to occur between 04-08 October as indicated on the Satellite Imagery (click picture to verify). The scenario will repeat as previously. Click here to see live.

 

P.KANHYE.                                                                            02 OCTOBER 2014.        

 

UPDATED: 10.00 PM FRIDAY 10 OCTOBER 2014.

 

The Second Weather System did not shower rain as Predicted above because of the following assumptions:

 

  1. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) continued to be active as Anti-Cyclones with High Atmospheric Pressure ranging between 1024 to 1032 hectopascals. So, the cold air and cold waters of the South Pole neutralized the Atmosphere by blowing wind gusts reaching around 30 kph and by causing high ocean waves. However, the Temperature in Mauritius increased from 290 to 320 Celsius; 
  2. Consequently, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has weakened in the Southern Indian Ocean but is currently very active in the Northern Indian Ocean; (a) Intense Tropical Cyclone VONGFONG is already influencing the region of Japan with wind speed of 95 kph near the centre, according to Japan Meteorological Agency website. Click here to verify LIVE and also check with NASA. (b) Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD evolving in the West-Central Bay of Bengal has intensified into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm today 10 October, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) with maximum sustained surface wind speed of 120-130 kph. Heavy Rainfall Warning has already been given and gusts are forecast to reach 155 kph by 12 October. Click here to check LIVE and also click here to refer to NASA.

The combination of all these atmospheric systems has caused a significant impact in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). Bands of Cumulus Clouds have been moving, between 04-08 October, at low altitude in Mauritius. These were scattered and did not evolve into Cumulonimbus Clouds which result in thunderstorms and rain. Eventually, maximum rainfall has been recorded at the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) of 8.6 mm at Rose Belle and of 16.6 mm at Grand Bassin on 06 October and drizzles of 3.2 mm on the following day.

Observations: As the cyclonic season of the Tropic of Cancer, which is in the Northern Hemisphere, is still very active, it appears that the formation of cyclones in the Tropic of Capricorn and the SWIO may be retarded until the end of the year. Yet, heat, thunderstorms and rain will prevail like the usual Summer Season.

 Breaking News: Finally, the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has uploaded in its website, today, the names of cyclones which are likely to form and to evolve in our region. Keep watch for the next article to clarify all this. 

P.KANHYE.                                       10.00 PM FRIDAY 10 OCTOBER 2014.

    

 READ MORE:13 OCTOBER-DISASTER REDUCTION DAY;

                    RAINFALL AND CYCLONE PATTERNS.

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