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Diamondra Cyclone-7th for Summer Season 2014-2015 of the South Indian Ocean

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Article Index

DIAMONDRA CYCLONE-7th FOR SUMMER SEASON 2014-2015

OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 

SEE UPDATE BELOW

The South West Indian Ocean is under the dynamic influence of Cyclonic Weather Systems originating from the Zone between Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. 96 S INVEST is the Tropical Disturbance identified by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)/US since Thursday 22 January 2015. Regional and Local atmospheric conditions indicate that this system is highly likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone and be named as DIAMONDRA.

[Mauritius Telecom is unable to re-establish internet service since 16 January because of incompetence and of obsolete equipment. Keep watch for an interesting article on this service provider.]

 

DIAMONDRA appears to take birth almost from the same region like BANSI Very Intense Tropical Cyclone (11-16 January 2015). This Phenomenal Cyclone caused flooding inland and landslides, accompanied by disastrous gusts and sea swells in all the three islands of the Mascarenes-Reunion, Madagascar and Rodrigues-mostly. Intense Tropical Cyclone CHEDZA (15-17 January 2015) has also caused almost the same Weather Conditions. ADJALI (16-20 November 2014), in contrast, was not a threat.

DIAMONDRA is the 4th in the list of Cyclones of Season 2014-2015 for the South West Indian Ocean. However, it will be the 7th which have evolved in this Zone, after BAKUNG, KATE and one which was not named by the MMS (22-28 November 2014). 

If in case 96 S INVEST develops in the same way, then Extreme Weather 

Conditions may prevail in this region of the South West Indian Ocean. Even if this does not develop into a cyclone, HEAVY RAINFALL is highly likely to occur. The Clouds associated in the Tropical Disturbance are carrying lots of water, especially in the Northern and North-Eastern Quadrant. The months of January, February and March are favoured for such conditions. For more information see article: LA COMMISSION DE L'OCEAN INDIEN (COI) ET LA GESTION DES CATASTROPHES (2ème partie)

Refer to the Satellite Imagery provided by NRL.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center has also indicated the 
formation of cyclones and rainy conditions in the South West Indian Ocean Basin in a continuous trend. In fact, these Climatic Systems are propelled by the Madden Julian Oscillation which has impacted in the Sub Saharan Africa since October 2014.

  

 

Local and Regional Atmospheric Conditions give the indication that the 7th Cyclone for this Season is ripe. Heavy Rainfalls are also in the ‘package’. Click pictures to see.

 

The effects of this Cyclonic System of DIAMONDRA will likely to be felt as from 28 January. Moreover, it is forecast to track towards the South Pole earlier than BANSI, because the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) appears to be Stronger this time. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is still Very Vigorous. So, the Mascarene Islands will be under the influence of the Triple Junction of the Atmospheric Systems of the South West Indian Ocean.  

Motherland Mauritius is already over flooded since the second week of December 2014. The population is already under the stress of continuous cyclonic and wet weather conditions. So, the socio-economic activities may be again disrupted. Schools may be closed, air flights cancelled, households and cash crops damaged, mudslides and water supplies affected and outbreak of water borne diseases.

According to the Special Weather Bulletin issued today, by the Mauritius Meteorological Services, 'A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius, valid till 18h00 on Saturday 24 January 2015'. Recent Rainfalls recorded for the last 24 hrs. are mainly as follows: Rose Belle-167 mm; Grand Bassin-164.8 mm; Vacoas-104.8 mm; Quatre Bornes-83 mm and Le Morne- 82.8 mm. Click here to check.

Réunion Island is already on HIGH ALERT regarding HEAVY RAINFALL: Grand Coude-195.7 mm; Belle Combe-182.6 mm; Le Baril 119.6 mm; Bras Panon-109.9 mm; Le Colosse- 109.9 mm and Ste. Rose-91.2 mm mainly.  Also verify with Météo-France-Réunion RADAR, click here.

Keep Watch for updates.

This article is uploaded thanks to EMTEL

P.KANHYE.                                                                  FRIDAY 23 JANUARY 2015.

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