Sunday, 20 October 2019

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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

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Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

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DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

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HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

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Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

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FUNDI CYCLONE (92 S INVEST)-9TH OF SEASON 2014-2015 FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

Article Index

FUNDI (92 S INVEST) 9TH CYCLONE OF SEASON 2014-2015

FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN


The Mozambique Channel is the birthplace of various Tropical Disturbances which have evolved for the South West Indian Ocean Basin. 92 S INVEST is one of the Low Pressure Systems which have formed in the South West of Madagascar since a few days. The JTWC gives indications that it is much more organised since yesterday 05 February 2015 and has upgraded the System from LOW to MEDIUM potential of forming a Tropical Cyclone. In such circumstances, this may be named by Météo-Madagascar as FUNDI, the 6th in the List but the 9th Cyclone for the South Indian Ocean.

Refer to article on DIAMONDRA, in which I indicated, since 28 January, the formation of FUNDI in the exact zone where 92 S INVEST is currently evolving:

 ‘As stated in earlier articles, that the cyclones are likely to form in series, BANSI, CHEDZA, DIAMONDRA and EUNICE have proved this. Moreover, FUNDI is also in the pipeline.

 91 S INVEST was one of the Tropical Disturbances which formed since last week in the Mozambique Channel. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) identified this Disturbance on 03 February 2015. But, this System dissolved the next day Wednesday 04 February.

[THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

However, on 05 February JTWC identified that another System-92 S INVEST had taken birth further South-West of Madagascar. This 92 S INVEST appears to be much more organised and shows signs of intensification:

[THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 38.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 41.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR…SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.]

                

 

Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), has identified the Tropical Disturbance on 05 February:

[Bulletin du 05 février à 16H32 locales

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

ZONE PERTURBEE 09-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1002 HPA.

Position le 05 février à 16 heures locales: 20.2 Sud / 38.1 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1785 km au secteur: OUEST.

Déplacement: EST, à 13 km/h.    

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 06/02 à 16h locales, par 21.2 Sud / 41.7 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 07/02 à 16h locales, par 23.3 Sud / 42.5 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/02 à 16h locales, par 25.6 Sud / 42.7 Est ] Click here to check. Reunion Island is already on Heavy Rain Alert.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services appear to be asleep up to now. There is no forecast track that has been prepared so far despite the one drawn by Météo-France-Réunion, which has also issued Advisories since 05 February 2015. Click here to verify.

         

    

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Refer to the series of pictures of the sky of Mauritius taken on 04 and 05 February 2015. The Atmospheric Systems indicate that the 92 S INVEST is highly likely to intensify and be named as CYCLONE FUNDI by Météo-Madagascar by the Week end. It appears that this Cyclonic System will not be as intense as the rest of the Cyclones which have evolved in the South West Indian Ocean Basin. It is Predicted to adopt a Track similar to CHEDZA and move in the Sub-Tropical Zone of the Ocean. Also, that it will not be a threat for Mauritius. However, Rainfalls are highly likely to occur at low /moderate rate.

KEEP WATCH FOR UPDATES.

P.KANHYE.                                                        FRIDAY 2.00 PM 06 FEBRUARY 2015.

 

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