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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

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     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

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 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

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JOALANE-13th Tropical Cyclone for South Indian Ocean-Another Puzzle and Phenomenon

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JOALANE-13th Tropical Cyclone of Season 2014-2015 for South Indian Ocean-

Another Puzzle and Phenomenon

(SEE UPDATE BELOW)

The Cyclone Season 2014-2015 for the Southern Hemisphere continues to be very dynamic. Weather Systems tend to generate uncertainties for meteorologists and researchers. JOALANE, the 13th Cyclone for this season has shown some peculiarities while evolving and intensifying rapidly and making ‘samba dance’ in the South West Indian Ocean Basin.

 

The Tropical Disturbance 91 S INVEST took birth, around the last week of March 2015, along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone of the Tropic of Capricorn. While it was moving towards the West it absorbed the remnants of 90 S INVEST and thereafter tracked towards the North. It was during the same period-(local time) 04 April that 93 S INVEST intensified and was named by the Meteorological Services of Mauritius (MMS) as Moderate Tropical Storm IKOLA. JOALANE has evolved very rapidly and has been named by the MMS during the night of Monday 06 April 2015.  

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued Advisories relentlessly on 06 April 2015 after renaming 91 S INVEST as Tropical Cyclone 22 S:

[ABIO10 PGTW 060400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

/REISSUED/060400Z-061800ZAPR2015.

AT 060000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 14.7S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,

MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35

KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.]

 

The System intensified rapidly within the next 6 hours and increased its speed slightly.

 

[AT 061200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 14.9S 61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,

MAURITIU, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45

KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.]

 

According to the Advisories of JTWC, JOALANE had ‘A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ‘. However, it remained Quasi-Stationary because the ‘Low Ocean Heat Content’ prevented intensification.

[070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 62.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM

NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT

07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.]

 

JTWC forecasts JOALANE to intensify during the next 3 days, that is by 09 April and to weaken thereafter.

                               

 

Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the Indian Ocean, issued its Advisories regarding the Tropical Depression 91 S INVEST which renamed it TD 13-20142015.

 

[Bulletin du 06 avril à 16H42 locales:

Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 997 HPA.

Position le 06 avril à 16 heures locales: 14.7 Sud / 62.0 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 960 km au secteur: NORD-EST.

Déplacement: OUEST-NORD-OUEST, à 13 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 07/04 à 16h locales, par 14.8 Sud / 59.5 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/04 à 16h locales, par 15.6 Sud / 58.6 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/04 à 16h locales, par 16.7 Sud / 59.3 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL,

Centre positionné le 10/04 à 16h locales, par 17.5 Sud / 60.1 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL,

Centre positionné le 11/04 à 16h locales, par 18.4 Sud / 60.3 Est.]

 

[Bulletin du 08 avril à 10H12 locales:

CYCLONE TROPICAL JOALANE.

Pression estimée au centre: 972 HPA.

Position le 08 avril à 10 heures locales: 14.6 Sud / 64.0 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1125 km au secteur: NORD-EST.

Déplacement: EST, à 9 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

CYCLONE TROPICAL,

Centre positionné le 09/04 à 10h locales, par 16.9 Sud / 65.1 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE,

Centre positionné le 10/04 à 10h locales, par 19.1 Sud / 66.6 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE,

Centre positionné le 11/04 à 10h locales, par 21.8 Sud / 69.0 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL,

Centre positionné le 12/04 à 10h locales, par 25.4 Sud / 69.2 Est.

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 13/04 à 10h locales, par 28.2 Sud / 68.8 Est.]

 

                         

           

      

The Meteorological Services of Mauritius named the Tropical Depression in the night of Monday 06and issued a Bulletin on 07 April 2015.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H50 THIS TUESDAY 07 APRIL 2015.

The Tropical Depression which was evolving to the North East of Mauritius has intensified into a Moderate Tropical Storm during the night and has been named JOALANE by Mauritius Meteorological Services. This morning Moderate Tropical Storm JOALANE has further intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm.  At 04h00, the Severe Tropical Storm JOALANE was centered in latitudes 13.9 degrees South and longitude 62.1 degrees East that is about 860 km to the North East of Mauritius. It is moving in a general north-westerly direction at about 10 km/h.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H30 THIS TUESDAY 07 APRIL 2015.

A) The severe tropical storm JOALANE was centred at 16h00 in latitude 14.3 degrees South and longitude 62.7 degrees East at about 830 km to the North-East of Mauritius.

The latest satellite imagery indicates that JOALANE has completed a loop and it is now moving slowly towards the South.

(B) Clouds in the circulation of JOALANE continue to influence weather over our region.]

 

Given, that JOALANE started tracking towards the South, the MMS issued a Special Bulletin regarding St. Brandon which is located in the North between Mauritius and Rodrigues.

[Special weather communique for St Brandon issued at 10h30 on Wednesday 08 April 2015.

At 10h00 this morning, the tropical cyclone JOALANE was centred in latitude 14.6 degrees South and longitude 63.8 degrees East, that is at about 430 km to the East North East of St Brandon.

During the last few hours it has remained almost stationary and will eventually move slowly towards the  South South East.  It is actually passing at its nearest point from St Brandon.]

 

The MMS issued the First Cyclone Warning Class 1 for Rodrigues at 16h 30 today Wednesday 08 April:

[UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE I EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

  Premier bulletin de cyclone pour Rodrigues emis a 16h30 ce Mercredi 08 Avril 2015.

A 16h00 aujourd'hui, le cyclone tropical JOALANE etait centre en latitude 15.2 degres Sud et longitude 64.6 degres Est, soit a environ 500 km presqu'au Nord de Rodrigues. JOALANE a repris son deplacement vers le sud-est a 10 km/h durant les derniers heures.  Il y a des indications qu'il pourrait s'incurver vers le sud-sud-est.

Sur cette trajectoire JOALANE s'approche de Rodrigues et represente une menace potentielle pour l'ile.]

 

 OBSERVATIONS

 The Atmospheric Conditions around Mauritius already indicate that Cyclones and Rainfalls are inevitable. Refer to pictures captured since the beginning of April.

                        

 

The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA also forecast Cyclones and Rainfalls for the first week of April 2015. In addition, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) also favours the Cyclogenesis for the same period. Refer to picture.

Scientists and Researchers obtain all the resources from the Satellites and space stations. They interpret, work out and issue alerts and warnings to the meteorological services worldwide for appropriate Actions.

 

NASA Scientist- Mr ROD GUTRO has already provided lots of data and information regarding Cyclone JOALANE since 06 April.

[The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard
NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm 22S as it organized and became a tropical storm on April 6 at 09:45 UTC (5:45 a.m. EDT).

On April 6, 2015, at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Tropical Cyclone 22S' maximum sustained winds were near 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kph). It was centered near 14.9 south latitude and 61.4 east longitude, about 401 nautical miles (461 miles/ 743 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. 22S has tracked west-southwestward at 9 knots (10.3 mph/16.6 kph)… the tropical storm will turn to the south and intensify to hurricane-force upon approach to Rodrigues Island. 

 

 

The JTWC forecast calls for Joalane to intensify and head southeast, moving east of Rodrigues Island on April 10, where no warnings are currently in effect.] Click here to verify-update of 07 April.

          

However, the Meteorological Services of Mauritius (MMS) does not appear to keep pace with the International Satellites which provide Dynamic Data and Information. It is very often late in naming and in issuing Warnings and Alerts. NASA Scientist has already mentioned about the Warning which should have been issued as from 07 April. The MMS has done so today at 16h30 on Wednesday 08 April.

Luckily, the MMS has drawn a Forecast Track. See the poor format. Check here to watch live.

 

However,  there was no Forecast Track that was drawn regarding Severe Tropical Cyclone IKOLA, despite the latter formed and evolved in its Area of Responsibility and was named; also in spite of the one made by JTWC and Météo-France.

 

Predictions for JOALANE

Tropical Cyclone JOALANE is carrying lots of Precipitations. NASA Scientist has indicated that 63 mm of Rain were dropped by JOALANE on 06 April, that A few storm tops in a strong rain band south of Joalane's center were found reaching even higher to altitudes of 17.4 km’. The pictures provided by NASA already seem awful and apprehension of Disaster is inevitable.

It is therefore highly likely that Rodrigues Island will experience Extreme Weather Conditions-Floods, strong gusts-over 185 kph and sea swells reaching about 9 metres. JOALANE is another Puzzle and Phenomenon for South Indian Ocean.

JOALANE is Predicted to pass the nearest point about 175 km North East of Pointe Coton during the night of 11-12 April 2015. This cyclone resembles Cyclone IMELDA (05-15 March 2013), just a week after the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013.

Remarks

NB: Ship Trochetia is the vessel which carries cargos, foodstuffs, oil and gas including more than a hundred passengers from Mauritius to Rodrigues located about 560 km towards the East. The Captain of the ship, anchored at the Port Louis harbour, has taken a brave decision not to set sail on 07 April and to wait for JOALANE to move offside of the island. He appears to be much more informed than the MMS. It appears that the departure will be rescheduled after a week or so. The trip lasts for 36 hours and the sea is already wavy. Such perilous trip has been experienced personally in 2004.

The ‘ghost-like’ Disaster Management Centre seems to be snoring until now. The impact of JOALANE will be calamitous especially for the fishing industry.

The questions are:

  1. have all the fishing boats, vessels and ferries been requested to move to a safe place with the oncoming Storm Surge forecast to reach about 9 metres in height?
  2. How far the Early Warning Systems have been activated for the Safety and Protection of the population?

 P.KANHYE                                                    10.00 am THURSDAY 09 APRIL 2015

 

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