Sunday, 20 October 2019

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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

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Meteorology, Disaster Management and Communication Systems in Mauritius

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METEOROLOGY, DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND

COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS IN MAURITIUS

The Policy Makers of all countries have the obligation, in virtue of International Protocols and Conventions, to legislate, implement and ensure that the life of the populace, including property, livelihood and economic activities are safeguarded. National institutions, which have the Executive role have, likewise, a well-defined mission statement mainly geared towards the Safety and Protection of the population of all countries. Unfortunately, there are many countries which fail to nurture and to provide Country-Driven mechanisms for the Disaster Resilience and well-being of Mankind in spite of available resources. (Click pictures to enlarge)

 

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) as a member of the World Meteorological Organisation, has the Mission Statement to:

  1. protection of life and property against natural disasters- droughts, floods, cyclones, forest fires, etc.;
  2. to safeguard the environment and
  3. to enhance the social and economic well-being in all sectors of society in areas like food security, water resources and transport.

The MMS which is the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services has mentioned in its ‘Winter 2015 Seasonal Outlook’:

[Winter weather is often characterized by persistent trade winds emanating from anticyclones in the South Indian Ocean. Temperatures are cooler, especially during the months of June to September… Average day and night temperature will be close to slightly above normal. However, at times, mainly in July and August, strong anticyclones will cause surge of cold air over the Mascarene Islands resulting in chilly conditions over Mauritius and Rodrigues.] 

I mentioned, amongst others, the impact of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current on the Tropic of Capricorn especially during Winter Season in article: Winter Season 2015 and Drought in Mauritius

‘Strong Winds from the Antarctic Zone will occur on a few occasions, but most of the time it will be rather mild. Sometimes, the Atmosphere will be felt windless. In contrast, last year the Anti-cyclones and the ACC were robust as from end of May and start of June until whole Winter.’

 

The Winter Season 2015 is already active in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean. A Cold Airstream accompanied by a Low Temperature of 4-50 Celsius lesser than usual and Rain (light, moderate and heavy) is also prevailing in the region. The striking feature of these days is the Robust Anti-Cyclone which is blowing cold air from the South Pole and generating Rainfalls in Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues.

The Meteorological Services issued a Special Bulletin in the early hours:

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04h40 THIS MONDAY 01 JUNE 2015.
GENERAL SITUATION:

(A): A strong wind warning is in force in Mauritius.
(B): The strong anticyclone to the south-east of the Mascarenes is causing a windy, cold and rainy weather over our region…

The highest gust recorded during the night are as follows:
Le Morne: 94 km/h
Champ de Mars: 80 km/h
Bagatelle, Domaine les Pailles and Nouvelle Decouverte: 68 km/h.
]

It appears that the Strong Wind Warning has not been interpreted and acted upon promptly by the Institutions of Mauritius, including stakeholders of Disaster Management. A private radio station announced around 6.45 am on Monday 01 June 2015, that pre-primary, primary and secondary schools will be kept closed today. At around 7.20 am, people have intervened at the same radio station complaining that there are many school children have already left their home before the Ministry of Education issued any communique notifying closure of schools. The radio station in question seems to have done some laudable effort by alerting the public, although it was rather late.

However, as it is difficult to check simultaneously the same announcement by the other two private radio stations and also by the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation which is the National radio and television station. But, it is regrettable that another radio station did not announce this bit of news as priority at its 8.00 am morning news bulletin. In this case, sensational news regarding politics and issues related to financial scandals had priority. Such a situation is a proof that the Early Warning Systems in Mauritius continue to fail. Moreover, it is a well-known fact that transmissions of Alarms are best channelled through radios which are the most popular means of communication. This is not being used to the optimum for the Safety and Protection of the population. All these loopholes in the news can be verified by the Independent Broadcasting Corporation (IBA).

It is worthwhile to note that, as a devoted Researcher, I use to check out current situations at odd hours. The Meteorological Radar of Météo-France-Réunion showed clearly the bands of clouds which were influencing Reunion and Mauritius around 11.30 pm on Sunday 31 May 2015. The scenario regarding the destructive impact of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on the Southern part of the Tropic of Capricorn was apparent. This has been vividly explained in the previous article: Winter Season 2015 and Drought in Mauritius 

The Cold and Vigorous Anti-Cyclone of 1032 Hectopascals was converging from the South African Region towards the South West Indian Ocean Bassin. As Reunion Island stands first on its way, Rainfalls, Cold Air, Strong Wind and Ocean Waves were inevitable. Rainfall recorded in 24 hours was 220 mm at Belle Combe; the Temperature reached 120 Celsius; Wind Gusts at 70 kph and Waves as High as 3-4 metres.

All these Weather Parametres mentioned above were enough to indicate that the same Atmospheric Conditions were highly likely to shift towards Mauritius and Rodrigues. The Meteorological Services of Mauritius (MMS) should have been on the Alert during the whole night of Sunday, assuming that the Radar of Reunion Island was constantly consulted as a devoted Service. The MMS already recorded Wind Gusts of 94 kph at Le Morne; 80 kph at Champ de Mars and 68 kph at Bagatelle, Pailles and Nouvelle Decouverte. The MMS then issued the STRONG WIND WARNING mentioned above at 4.40 am on Monday 01 June .

The questions arise as follows:

  1. how far the Meteorological Services of Mauritius, which has no RADAR since 2002, consulted the Météo-France-Reunion which is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for this zone;
  2. what advisories were obtained from Reunion Island whose RADAR Imageries showed clearly the direction of the Anti-Cyclone was moving and
  3. how far inter-regional cooperation was activated?

Click here to verify with MMS. Click to check with Météo-France-Réunion.

 

Météo-France

MARDI 02

L'alizé d'Est-Sud-Est reste soutenu, soufflant avec de fortes rafales de 60 à 70km/h sur les côtes Nord et Sud et 70 à 80km/h sur le massif du Volcan et sur les crêtes exposées. En revanche, les plages de l'Ouest restent à l'abri du vent.

La mer est forte au vent et la houle de Sud-Est, avec des vagues moyennes de 3m à 3m50, déferle du Sud Sauvage à Champ Borne en passant par l'Anse des Cascades et la côte de St Benoît.
Verify with Météo-France-Reunion.

Disaster Management

Disaster Management is a Country Driven concept in view of sensitising the population and of responding to hazards which are oncoming or forecast. There are innumerable Guidelines mainly provided by Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, UN Global Survey of Early Warning Systems 2006, Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports 2014, Article 6 of Doha Convention2012, WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Work Plan (2012-2015) and lots of others. All these precious documents explain and advise Policy Makers, Private and Public Institutions and the Public in general how to build Resilience in face of Calamities.

All the recommendations made in the documents urge all stakeholders to adopt 24/7 mechanisms and to ‘Put People First’ while adapting to Calamitous moments. In short it should be an independent Institution operation full-time and permanently, as an entity. Unfortunately, the Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius, besides being still at ‘Conceptual Stage’, is moving off-track. The Centre was conceived hardly a decade ago and was under the aegis of the Prime Minister Office and under the whims and caprices of the Secretary to Cabinet, or of a Head of Civil Service, or of a Para-Military Commander. After the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013, one Mrs Bellers (a foreign expert) was appointed by the outgoing Prime Minister to lead the Centre. However, all their Work Plans have utterly failed during the recent series of Extreme Weather Events experienced by the Mauritian public.

 

Now that a new government has gained control of the affairs of the state, the Disaster Management Centre has catastrophically been annexed to the Ministry of Environment. In other words this Institution has been down-graded to a simple department, instead of growing and of evolving into a full-fledged mechanism. There is neither a website nor any assessment report made on Extreme Weather Events as such for this important Institution.

I was therefore fully right to mention in my Precious Document dated 18 MAY 2011 and entitled ‘An Authentic Pleading for an Urgent Campaign in Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation of Natural Calamities in the Indian Ocean’ which I submitted to the Prime Minster and other Policy Makers (government and opposition) that:    

I am sure that you are fully convinced that you are not Aware and not Prepared in addressing the challenges of the impeding Natural Calamities of our region. Your Disaster Management Committee resembles a heavy coal operated train that is moving lamentably and puffing soot and noxious gases in the atmosphere and leaking oil all along the track. It is protocolaire, bureaucratic, unprofessional and slack. It is not a think tank. There are no campaigns of raising Awareness and Preparedness that are being undertaken currently’.

It should be noted that the Mauritius Meteorological Services and this new government did not commemorate 23 March as the World Meteorological Day whose theme of 2015 was Climate Knowledge for Climate Action’. Moreover, 05 June is also commemorated as World Environment Day. Catastrophically, neither the Ministry of Environment nor its department of Disaster Management Centre has organised such crucial global events. Click to verify with UN.

It is conclusive that, in Mauritius, Disaster Management which is still a ‘foetus’, is highly likely to undergo a ‘miscarriage’ or be ‘aborted’. This institution is still reactive, operating on ad hoc basis and is acting by ‘putting the ox behind the cart’. Resilience against Calamities is not being nurtured in the Mauritian society.

 

Communication Systems in Mauritius

Adaptation to the challenges posed by Natural Calamities demands prompt, appropriate and innovative mechanisms in view of ensuring Safety and Protection of the population. The national radio and tv stations, private radio stations, telephone and internet service providers and newspapers constitute communication mechanisms in order to channel information. Radios are considered as the best channel of transmission as it is also the most popular and accessible communication system. As mentioned above, this does not appear to be perfect because the local Media is not attuned in the Multi-Sector Framework recommended by the Conventions and Protocols.

Apart from land line networks provided by two private service providers and the Mauritius Telecom which is the national (semi-governmental) institution, there are more than 3 million mobile telephones in the population of hardly 1.3 million. It is inconceivable that these resources are not being mobilised to the optimum in the Multi-Sectoral Framework of Adaptation. The Policy Makers of Mauritius claim boastingly, that this country is a leader in Information and Communication Technology in this region of the Indian Ocean. This is erroneous and misleading. Most of the time mobile telephony is being used to lure the youth and to advertise items, because it is a very lucrative business.

After the Winds of Change which have blown out the bad government during the general elections of 10 December 2014, the new Minister of Technology, Communication and Innovation is unable to innovate the Early Warning Systems in Mauritius. Furthermore, he is also controlling the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation, the national radio and television stations comprising of more than a dozen channels. Yet, the situation is the same.

 

The telephone and internet service providers should have, on Real-Time Basis, alerted the public when the Strong Wind Warning was issued by the MMS at 4.40 am on Monday 01 June. Such alert was once activated on 14 April 2013 after the miserable Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. The lessons have not been taken even by the current Policy Makers, Institutions and stakeholders. This is ocular proof that the Early Warning Systems are deficient in this country.

Mauritius hosted the Second International Coordination Meeting for the Development of a Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System for the Indian Ocean Conference in Grand Baie, 14-16 April 2005 following the calamitous Tsunami of December 26, 2004, which I had Predicted during March-April 2002. I participated as an Observer on that occasion and I use to repeat a quotation in many of my documents. Mr. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs said during the Conference: “Disaster reduction is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware; at root, it is also a matter of communication and education… We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the people in need of such information”.

 

Truth around 01 JUNE 2015 STRONG WIND WARNING

Mother’s Day is celebrated pompously by the population of Mauritius on the fourth Sunday of the month of May each year. This family event was marked on Sunday 31 May 2015. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) had announced on Friday 29 May that strong winds, high waves, cold air and rain would prevail until the week-end.

Given, that the citizens of Mauritius were paying tribute to honour the undeniable role of each mother, surely feasts were organised at family level on Sunday 31 May. Perhaps there were, no doubt, other people who have lost their mother or were far from theirs or some others who have, irreligiously, forgotten their father who has procreated and given his name. Mother Earth and Mother Nature on the other hand were blowing Strong Winds with cold air in the atmosphere, showering Rain on land and generating high waves in the Indian Ocean. The questions are as follows:

  • how far was the Minister of Environment, who leads the Disaster Management Centre, taking the seriousness of the Weather Conditions forecast by the Meteorological Services before and on Monday morning?;
  • what were the members and stakeholders of the Disaster Management Centre noticing at that time?;
  • what was the Minister of Education reacting thereto?...etc.

It seems that all the people mentioned above were surely snoring and not sober after the feasts. It is a known fact that the message by the Minister of Education instructing that schools should be closed on Monday 01 June reached the students and parents late. Many of them reported live on radio stations of the Lateness as lots of them were already on their way to schools. Conclusively, the Early Warning Systems are VERY POOR in the Republic of Mauritius. 

Observations

The Weather Conditions in the South West Indian Ocean Basin continued to prevail on whole Monday 01 and also on Tuesday 02 June 2015.

Sunday 31May 2015

Reunion: Rainfall in 24 hours -220 mm at Belle Combe. 

Monday 01 June 2015

Mauritius: Rainfall in 24 hours- 65.8 mm in Vacoas; 61.4 mm in Nouvelle Decouverte; 59.4 mm in Rose Belle and 58 mm in Providence.

Wind Gusts recorded between Sunday 31 May and Monday 01 June 2015 were 68 to 94 Kph.

Temperature Minimum-140 Celsius. 

Reunion: Rainfall in 24 hours:

339.5 mm in Belle Combe; 195.9 mm in Salazie; 120.7 mm  in Grand Coude;  83.2 mm in Le Baril; 81 mm in Cilaos; 75.4 mm in Ste Rose.

Wind Gusts reached 75 to 90 kph and Waves reached 2.5 to 3 metres high.

Tuesday 02 June 2015

Mauritius: Rainfall recorded in 24 hours-

66.2 mm in Mon Bois; 45.2 mm in Grand Bassin; 20.8 mm in Providence and 19.8 mm in Beau Songe.

Maximum Wind Gusts recorded in Le Morne- 101 kph.   

Reunion: Rainfall recorded in 24 hours-

62 mm in Belle Combe; 59.1 mm in Salazie; 38.8 mm in Le Baril, 36.6 mm in Plaine des Palmistes

Temperature- minimum 12.60 Celsius. Waves have reached 3 to 3.5 metres high.

                       
     
      

Conclusions

All the Weather information and records mentioned above show that Mauritius and Reunion experienced almost the same conditions. The latter received almost 5 times the Precipitations than Mauritius. Yet, there was no Strong Wind Warning which was issued in Reunion which has a mountainous topography and eventually schools were not closed. This means that the Population of Reunion Island is more Educated, more Prepared and more Resilient than those of Mauritius. Besides, Météo-France is a model in Climate, Weather and Hydrology which should be adopted by the regional states, including others. There are lots of information, data and educational resources which are available freely for everyone. In contrast, the Meteorological Services of Mauritius and the Disaster Management are lagging much behind.

Kindly, take note that the Mauritian Minister of Finance, the Chief Commissioner of Rodrigues and a delegation have been on a 3-day mission in Reunion Island, coincidentally, from 31 May 2015. The objective has been mainly to consolidate/ start regional economic and air traffic issues. Meteorology and Disaster items have not, regrettably, been in their agenda. 

Mr. Elhadj As Sy, secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said ‘ early warning and early alert, if not accompanied by early action, will not make sense either. We need to reach the most vulnerable. We need to walk the extra mile,” Geneva UNISDR 28 May 2015.Click here to check.

All these weaknesses in Mauritius have been reported to the Indian Ocean Commission in my document entitled La Commission de L’Ocean Indien et La Gestion des Catatropheswhich was submitted on 29 August 2014. But, the Secretary General of the IOC (COI) has turned a deaf ear. Moreover, the representative of UNDP Mauritius has also kept quiet to my request since November 2013. It should be noted that the IOC and UNDP mobilise millions of dollars for various projects related to Climate Change and the Environment, amongst others. The question is: why they are incapable of building a Disaster Resilient Mauritian Society?   

Keep Watch. 

P.KANHYE.                                                                    WEDNESDAY 03 JUNE 2015.

Read more: Winter Season 2015 and Drought in Mauritius;

                  WMO and MAURITIUS;

                  Climate Knowledge for Climate Action-Theme of World Meteorological Day 2015;

                  Fusion of Atmospheric Systems and Heavy Rainfalls in Southern Indian Ocean-December 2014;

                  LA COMMISSION DE L'OCEAN INDIEN (COI) ET LA GESTION DES CATASTROPHES (1ère partie);

                  CYCLONE NAMES FOR SEASON 2014-2015 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN and others.

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