Sunday, 20 October 2019

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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

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 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

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Flood Storm (92 S INVEST) Phenomenon in South-West Indian Ocean Basin

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FLOOD STORM (92 S INVEST) Phenomenon in South-West Indian Ocean Basin.

 Mother Nature did not give birth to neither a Cyclone  nor to a Tornado, as  mentioned on 28 October 2015,  regarding the formation of Tropical Disturbance 92 S  INVEST. However,  the last  Probability, out of the  three mentioned  above, has  turned out to be 100% true. The whole of the South- West Indian Ocean  Basin  underwent a  Phenomenal  Hydrologic Episode  or  Flood Storm during the first week of November  2015. The Scientific Predictions made partly by NOAA/CPC, NASA and by Cloud  Observations from ground level proved this occurrence.  Moreover, the impacts of this  Atmospheric System appeared Disastrous for some regions and the situation continues  until now.

 

You are requested to go through the previous article before reading this one. CLICK HERE.

As mentioned, in the earlier article, that the International Centres appear to be subject to lots of Uncertainties regarding the formation of Cyclones in whole of the Indian Ocean. The Climate Prediction Centre of NOAA/US forecasted, for period 28 October to 03 November 2015 (after some rectification), that the two Tropical Disturbances found near Sri Lanka (93 S INVEST) and Madagascar (92 S INVEST) have Low chances of developing into cyclones; that 94 S INVEST located in the Persian Gulf has the greatest probability of Cyclone formation. Furthermore, Precipitations had high confidence around all the three Disturbances. However, date-wise, there are still some Uncertainties in the prediction. There are no indications at all for Cyclones and Precipitations as far as period 04-10 November 2015 is concerned. The question of Uncertainties still continues.

NASA stated on 25 October 2015, that 92 S INVEST and 94 S INVEST have higher confidence in the formation of Cyclones. Yet, 92 S INVEST dissipated and it is 94 S INVEST which developed into Intense Cyclone CHAPALA, causing Disasters to Yemen and Socotra Island located in the Persian Gulf. Besides, a historical record from 1940 was also broken.

NASA states: ‘to have two storms to hit one region of the Middle East is unprecedented. Only three cyclones have made landfall on the Peninsula across six decades of records.’  Click here to check.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86940&src=eoa-iotd

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=52481#.VkA7AdIrIf4

All the Scientific Forecasts mentioned above are based mostly on numerical models and it is also conclusive that some degree of Uncertainties still exists in their applications. However, the best forecast has been carried out by the application of Traditional Knowledge, that is, observations made as from the ground. The photographs of Clouds, taken since 30 October 2015 and shown in earlier article, have been crucial for the Prediction of Flood Storm.

The forecasters of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued a Special Weather Bulletin in the afternoon of Thursday 04 November 2015:

[SPECIAL WEATHER COMMUNIQUE ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2015 AT 16H00 VALID FROM THURSDAY 05 NOVEMBER AT 11H00 TO FRIDAY 06 NOVEMBER AT 11H00-

 

GENERAL SITUATION:

Rather active clouds associated with a frontal system are approaching Mauritius

Forecast for the next 24 hours:

Weather will be cloudy to overcast over the whole island with scattered showers especially to the South and West and over the Central Plateau. The showers will become more frequent in the late afternoon and may be moderate to heavy at times with thunderstorms. The showery weather will persist until Friday afternoon.]

In terms of Early Warning Systems, the Alert was issued by the Meteorological and was presumed to be an advanced notice of 15 hours: 16.00 hrs to 11.00 hrs the following day. Moreover, the Bulletin mentioned that the ‘showers will become more frequent in the late afternoon and may be moderate to heavy’. That effort was made rather late and was also badly forecasted. Moreover and contrarily, the precipitations already started at the early hours of Thursday 05 November. Verify with MMS.

Had the MMS made observations of the behaviour of the Clouds from the ground at least from 30 October and applied Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge then the Warning would have really been excellent.

In fact, it was a Cold Front and not a simple Frontal System as mentioned in the Special Weather Bulletin above. The Atmospheric Pressure around the West of the South Pole which was generating the Cold Front was between 2016 and 2028 hectopascals (hPa). The Cold Front was propelled, as usual, by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This ACC is the Coldest Air Flow originating from the Antarctic where the Temperature may reach minus 89 degrees Celsius. At the same time it is the Strongest Wind Current of the Blue Planet, which is capable of moving ‘150 million cubic metres of water per second’ according to some sources. The peculiarities of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are that:

  • Both the Atmospheric System and Ocean Current swirl around the Continent of Antarctica from the West to the East of the South Pole. This is caused by the Rotation of the Blue Marble on its axis, moving from West to East;
  • The System operates together with Anti-Cyclones which move in the Counter-Clock-Wise mode;
  • Most of the time, there are lots of pockets of Low Pressure Systems in the Anti-Cyclones. This can be explained by the fact that the Ocean of the South Pole has absorbed much Heat and Carbon Dioxide and has undergone Acidification;
  • The Ozone whole, which has enlarged in 2015 according to latest NASA report, accelerates the Atmospheric process and
  • When the ACC operates, it has also the tendency to invade the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans from the South until most of the Tropic of Capricorn. This process takes 3-5 days towards the North direction and reverts towards the South in almost the same time duration.

 

,

Dynamics of the Cold Front explained by Scientific and Traditional Knowledge

 

Clouds at all Altitude Levels have been moving as early as 25 October and been indicating that Disastrous Weather Systems are forming and evolving in a dynamical way. The Atmospheric Systems of this region are complex, but they can easily be understood. The ITCZ carries Clouds, packed with heat, thunderstorms, cyclones and floods from the East of the Indian Ocean and dumps them in the West. The South East Trade Wind (SETW) acts as a facilitator of the ITCZ causing all Clouds, mainly those of the Low Altitude of Cumulus family, to move towards the Northern part of Madagascar until Mozambique. The ITCZ fuses, at this point, with the SETW undergoing Convection.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is generated at the Sub-Saharan Africa, originates as from there. It appears that the MJO has suppressed the ‘Malgache Wind’, which prevailed about 2-3 decades ago. The latter blew from South East Africa and Madagascar (hence its Malagasy name) especially announcing Winter Season in Mauritius. Observations as from Mauritius indicate that it is blowing softly at Low Altitude, but further research on this issue is needed.  Although this MJO is on a Weak Phase, as per the NOOA/CPC, it accelerates the Fusion and propels the Convective Clouds from Mozambique and Northern Madagascar. As a result, most of the Clouds move from the South-West Indian Ocean towards Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands- Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues.

It is in such circumstances that the Tropical Disturbance 92 S INVEST was pushed naturally by the ITCZ, until the Mozambique Channel. But, it was remarkable to note that 92 S INVEST did not intensify, surprisingly, at this Hot Spot of the Channel. Usually, the MJO carries rather Rainfalls instead of Cyclones, as observed. So, almost all the Convective Clouds combined with the Fusion of ITCZ, SETW and MJO converge towards the South-East of the Indian Ocean. The ACC, being the most vigorous of all the three Atmospheric Systems, causes another process of convection: troughs, ridges and fronts in the South-West Indian Ocean Basin.

Every Weather System is bound to form and evolve according to the prevailing Atmospheric Conditions. So, each has a lifespan ranging from a few hours to a fortnight or so. Sometimes Meteorologists, Forecasters and Researchers are obliged to be patient and to persevere. Readers also should adopt the same attitude before making hasty comments. The public at large must look at the sky in order to observe and build their own Resilience.

The Fusion of ITCZ, SETW, MJO and ACC is a dangerous process which triggers Cyclonic and Flood situations, Sea Swells and Strong Winds. If the Fused System moves in the open Indian Ocean, then the impact is null or less calamitous. But, if the System tracks along or near the land masses, then Disasters are inevitable. The Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and Mega-Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 in Mauritius; the Torrential Rain of 14 March 2014 and 188 mm of precipitations 02-03 October 2015 in Rodrigues illustrate this Weather Pattern.

At this conjecture, Scientists, Meteorologists and Researchers are requested to take into consideration this Weather Pattern while regarding the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Systems in the South-West Indian Ocean. The IPCC reporters should also do same, as there are lots of information and data at hand which can be unveiled in other articles.

I submitted a Document to the Secretary General of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC/COI) on 29 August 2014. I asked him whether he is aware why the Anti-cyclones have been blowing vigorously as from June 2014. He did not reply at all. This is one of the issues on which I intend to share with and to sensitise everyone.

Moreover, this is one of the reasons why this part of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin holds lots of World Records, in terms of Precipitations. According to the Archives of WMO:

A)

  1. 1,144 mm in 12 hours on 7-8 January 1966;                                                  
  2. 1,825 mm in 24 hours on same 7-8 January 1966;                                                           
  3. 3,929 mm in 72 hours on 24-26 February 2007 and                                         
  4. 4,869 mm in 96 hours on same 24-26 February 2007.

B

  1. 12 hrs with 1,144 mm and 24 hrs with 1,825 mm of rain during Cyclone Denise (7-8 January 1966);
  2. 72 hrs with 3,929 mm and 96 hrs with 4,869 mm of rain during Cyclone Gamede (24-26 February 2007) and
  3. 10 days with 5,672 mm of rain during Cyclone Hyacinte (18-27 January 1980).

See article: Fusion of Atmospheric Systems and Heavy Rainfalls in Southern Indian Ocean-December 2014.

 

Forecasts and Mismanagement 

 

It is in such circumstances that Clouds, as observed from the ground, have been moving at all three Levels of the Troposphere. The Front System which was mentioned by the MMS has caused a decrease in Temperature: from 320 to 300-290 during the last weeks until now. It is well known in Meteorology that the movement of a Cold Front is usually preceded by Thunderstorms and Rains. That is why the Meteorological Services announced the oncoming Rain on Wednesday 04 November. One Forecaster stated on the MBC Television, that such Front System is unusual in the month of November.

   

                                                                                    

  

The Mauritius Meteorological Services mentioned about ‘a line of instability’. The occurrence of the Weather Event was forecasted to occur as from 11 hours on Thursday 05 November, as stated in the Special Bulletin. Unfortunately, it was not precisely calculated. The main reason appears to be that the Forecasters relied entirely on the Satellite Images. In spite of that, a good Meteorologist should have better calculated the timing, given that a Cold Front is also known to move faster than a Warm Front. See animation thanks to Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois. CLICK PICTURE TO SEE ANIMATION.

In the absence of a Meteorological Radar in Mauritius, the MMS should have consulted and referred to the two Radars of Meteo-France-Reunion. This Centre is recognised as the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South West Indian Ocean, according to the WMO. The Radar Image uploaded, in its website, at 3.00 am Thursday 05 November shows clearly that the Bands of Rain Clouds were already moving in a strait forward South-East trajectory and making landfall over Mauritius. Refer to picture. These explain the miscalculation made by the MMS. The Forecasters could have also rectified the timing, given that they were on the Watch whole night. Eventually, a New Bulletin should have been issued as early as 4.00 am and they should have also notified, timely, the stakeholders of the Disaster Management Centre and the public.

Early Warning Systems as defined by WMO are:

  1. detection, monitoring and forecasting the hazards;
  2. analysis of risks involved;
  3. dissemination of timely and authoritative warnings and
  4. activation of emergency preparedness and response plans.

The most regrettable episode is that Honourable Mrs. Dookun-Luchman, Minister of Education, decided on Thursday 05 November to keep the pre-primary and primary schools closed at a ‘Very Late Hour’. She announced the closure at 7.50 am, by which time many students had already been at the school compound, while several others were also on their way. These Uncertainties were broadcast live in a private radio station. Such irresponsible decision constitutes exposure to vulnerability and is against the principles of providing Protection and Security to the population. The situation was again ridiculous on the following 06 Friday, when many schools were kept closed in spite of her authorising schools to be open. This sort of Uncertainty in deciding about closing and opening schools is a recurrent and miserable scenario. Eventually, such unprofessional alerts cause lots of confusion to students and to parents.

That is another example that the Meteorological Services does not perfectly promote the Mission and Vision of the World Meteorological Organisation. The question is: what has the MMS and Minister of Environment/Disaster Management learned during the recent conference on Early Warning Systems held from 26 to 30 October 2015?

A Disaster Resilient Society is one, where the Policy Makers-be they kings, queens, presidents or prime ministers, who together with institutions, stakeholders-private/public, municipal/district/village councillors, NGOs, communities and individuals should adopt and implement ‘Country-Driven Mechanisms’ harnessed with the concept of ‘Putting-People-First’.

In the context of Mauritius, everything is focused on the Meteorological Services which is already a doubtful driver/operator of the mechanism, given its poor forecasts. The Disaster Management Centre, which is the engine, is unable to propel the wagons overloaded by the stakeholders and the populace. That is why, I mentioned in my Document of 28 MAY 2011 and which I submitted to ex-Prime Minister and to the Policy Makers: ‘Your Disaster Management Centre is like a coal operated train which is moving lamentably, leaking oil and puffing noxious gasses all along its track.’

I made lots of suggestions, but they were left to deaf ears. The World Meteorological Day 23 March 2015 whose theme was ‘Climate Knowledge for Climate Action’ was not marked, just like the 13 October Disaster Reduction Day whose theme was ‘Knowledge for Life”. Another question is: what will the Policy Makers present at the oncoming COP 21? I submitted another document to the new Policy Makers on 15 September 2015 and entitled ‘Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation and Disaster Management’. As it is always their tradition, they have not yet reacted or contacted me, to discuss the innovative issues I have proposed. They are rather still busy cleaning and scratching the broth which have stuck and rotten in the political cauldron. Besides being deaf, they are also unable to see that the Fire of EL NINO is over-heating the boiling pot and causing disastrous impact around Mauritius.   

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