Sunday, 20 October 2019

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 Ag. Pres. of MAURITIUS

P.P. Vyapoory- UNGA 74th

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PM MODI SPEAKING

UNGA 74th SESSION

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GRETA THUNBERG

UN  Climate Activist

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 CHANDRAYAAN 2 

Source/Courtesy: ISRO

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 Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

 

23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

  

 FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

  

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

  Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

  Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

  CLICK HERE TO WATCH

     ALL VIDEOS 

FANTALA Cyclone- Phenomenal Record Breaker Visiting Madagascar and Surrounding Islands Scientific Loopholes, But Best Prediction.

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Article Index

 

FANATALA CYCLONE-PHENOMENAL RECORD BREAKER

VISITING MADAGASCAR AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS-

SCIENTIFIC LOOPHOLES, BUT BEST PREDICTION.

(Part One of Assessment) 

The Summer Season 2015-2016 of the South Indian Ocean continues to prevail, in spite of the transition towards Winter Season. As usual, Satellite Images and Observations from the ground of Mauritius have provided information regarding the formation and evolution of Climate and Weather. Cyclone FANTALA, the 7th System of this Season, has taken a long time to take birth in the South Indian Ocean. That is why I mentioned and maintained my forecast of the formation of FANTALA as from18 March 2016. Contrary to the preceding Atmospheric Systems, FANTALA has evolved in solo and has proved to be a 'Record-Breaker'. It has visited Madagascar and the surrounding Islands, including others located in the South-West Indian Ocean. Refer to the information uploaded previously and also see the picture.

International Advisories and Monitoring

Joint Typhoon Warning Centre/Naval Research Laboratory

(UPDATE: 3-14 April Reviewed)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) identified, on 18 March 2016, the formation of a Low Pressure located in the South-West of Diego Garcia. This was at the time that Cyclone EMERAUDE was evolving further in the East of Southern Indian Ocean. The System persisted until a few days.

[ABIO10 PGTW 181800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN

/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZMAR2016…

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 66.4E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MID-LEVEL TURNING AND SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 181426Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE.

EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED 15 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC WITH WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 25 KNOTS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE, IMPROVING SATELLITE SIGNATURE, AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT…

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

 

However, the Advisories of JTWC stated that the System dissipated on the following day.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 66.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.]

 

Another Low Pressure reappeared in the following days, but dissipated eventually.

[ABIO10 PGTW 281130

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/281130Z-281800ZMAR2016…

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 76.6E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.]

        

   

 

Finally, FANATALA took birth almost at the same location. It was named as Moderate Tropical Storm by the MMS at 10.00 pm on 10 April 2016.

 

The Advisories of the JTWC were as follows:

[WTXS31 PGTW 112100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 001//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 11251ZAPR2016…

REMARKS:

112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 71.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION ONVERGING INTO A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)…

THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES…

TC FANTALA IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE SAME STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48.

AFTERWARDS, TC FANTALA WILL BEGIN MOVING A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT TO A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 96.

TC FANTALA WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN CLIMATOLOGY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES AS A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE LLCC.

BETWEEN TAUS 24-36 THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, THOUGH CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WHICH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN MOISTENS, ALLOWING TC 19S TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS BY TAU 72.

AS THE FORWARD MOTION BEGINS TO SLOW BY TAU 96 THROUGH TAU 120, TC FANTALA WILL INDUCE A LOCALIZED REDUCTION IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TAU'S LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET.]

Click picture to enlage and click animation icon at the bottom to watch live with NOAA.

Or Verify here with NOAA.

 

  

Regional Advisories and Monitoring

  • Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the South Indian Ocean, released its Advisories on FANTALA, as early as follows:

[WTIO31 FMEE 110641 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/8/20152016 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8…

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/04/2016 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 72.7 E (DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H…

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 11/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

24H: 12/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 12/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

48H: 13/04/2016 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

60H: 13/04/2016 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 14/04/2016 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.]  

 

The Advisories of Météo-France-Réunion continued constantly in accordance with the evolution and intensification of Cyclone FANTALA.

      

                       

      

 

  • Météo Madagascar and Regional Monitoring

Madagascar is a Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC) for the South Indian Ocean, as per the WMO. Because of political instabilities during the last decade or so, meteorological services were almost inactive. However, it is trying to revive and upgrade its services, since the last two years. This Centre merits encouragement. Everyone is requested to give technical and scientific support, just like NOAA. It is worthwhile to note that this Meteorological Service and another of its sub-station are responding positively to the Newsletters sent from this website.

 

  

Some of the bulletins issued by Météo-Madagascar regarding FANTALA are as follows:

[BULLETIN CYCLONIQUE SPECIAL DU 18 AVRIL 2016 A 15:30 HEURES LOCALES

TOUJOURS AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE, SON CENTRE S'EST TROUVE, A 15 HEURES LOCALES, A 345 KM AU NORD D'ANTSIRANANA(09.2S/49.5E).

LA FORCE DE VENT EST DE 240 KM/H ALTERNE PAR UNE RAFALE DE 340 KM/H.IL SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST A UNE VITESSE TRES REDUITE DE 06 KM/H.

LES HOULES CYCLONIQUES DE 4 A 5 METRES SONT TOUJOURS PROBABLES SUR LES COTES NORD-EST ET NORD-OUEST DU PAYS. LE VENT FORT EST CONCENTRE DANS LA MOITIE NORD PAR L'EFFET PURE DE FANTALA. LA SORTIE EN MER EST DECONSEILLEE SUR LES COTES NORD-EST ET NORD-OUEST ENTRE NOSY-BE ET ANTSIRANANA.

AILLEURS, LA NAVIGATION MARITIME NECESSITE UNE GRANDE PRUDENCE CAR LA MER EST HOULEUSE AVEC UN VENT SOUFFLANT DE 40/45 KM/H. SON ÉVOLUTION EST SURVEILLEE CONTINUELLEMENT MEME S'IL EST PREVU DE NE PAS TOUCHER DIRECTEMENT MADAGASCAR.]

 

Other Bulletin followed on 19 April 2016:

[BULLETIN CYCLONIQUE SPECIAL DU 19 AVRIL 2016 A 09 HEURES LOCALES

FANTALA S'EST AFFABLI AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, SON CENTRE SE TROUVAIT A 09 HEURES LOCALES A 350 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST D'ANTSIRANANA (9.3S/50.0E).

LA FORCE DE VENT EST DE 150 KM/H ALTERNE PAR UNE RAFALE DE 222 KM/H.
IL SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'EST A UNE VITESSE TRES REDUITE DE 10 KM/H. LES HOULES CYCLONIQUES DE 4 A 5 METRES SONT TOUJOURS PROBABLES SUR LES COTES NORD-EST ET NORD-OUEST AUTOUR D'ANTSIRANANA. LE VENT FORT EST CONCENTRE DANS LA MOITIE NORD L'EFFET PURE DE FANTALA.

LA SORTIE EN MER EST DECONSEILLEE SUR LES COTES NORD-EST ET NORD-OUEST ENTRE NOSY-BE ET ANTSIRANANA. ON SUIT DE PRES SON ÉVOLUTION
.]

Météo-Madagascar issued, on 19 April 2016, an Alert (Vigilance) for the Northern Territory, in spite of the remoteness of FANTALA. See Forecast Tracks and Alert Zone.

The latest and Special Bulletin regarding FANTALA was issued at 2.41 pm 24 April 2016 mentioning that Madagascar is out of the danger zone:

[FANTALA EST ACTUELLEMENT EN PHASE DE CYCLOLYSE. DEVENUE PERTURBATION TROPICALE, SON CENTRE SE TROUVAIT A 09 HEURES LOCALES A 420 KM AU NORD-EST D'ANTSIRANANA. ELLE SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 20 KM/H. ELLE SERA COMPLETEMENT DISSOUTE D'ICI MARDI.CECI EST BULLETIN CYCLONIQUE SPECIAL DU 24 AVRIL 2016.]

  

  • Seychelles National Meteorological Services

Cyclone FANTALA seems to have caused impact on Farquhar group of Islands-a ‘protected zone’ and dependency of Seychelles Archipelago. About 20 persons were evacuated on 14 April 2016. The System cruised towards the South of the island on 15 April 2016. The National Meteorological Services of Seychelles mentions considerable damages. According to ‘Cyclone Ocean Indien’ blog infrastructure and trees have suffered damage and equally to the conservation project.

 

The return of FANTALA towards the island seems to be apprehended by these people.

 Verify location with Google Earth, click here.

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services and Local Monitoring 

The Weather System- FANTALA took birth, after a lengthy incubation, in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), that is, at Latitude12.90 South and Longitude 71.00 East. The MMS, being the other Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC), named Moderate Tropical Storm FANTALA at 10.00 pm on Monday 11 April 2016.

 

The Advisories regarding Cyclone FANTALA have been issued, by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), as supplementary information. This has continued as from the formation, intensification and eventual evolution of the Weather System. Any Cyclone Warning as such, does not appear to be necessary, except the recurrent Alerts concerning Sea Swells and Strong Winds associated with the System.

 

However, on one hand, some evacuations were carried out in Agalega–an Outer Island of Mauritius and located 1000 km North-wise. This small coral Island divided into two, because of the impact of oceanic currents, is inhabited by about 272 persons. Those of the Southern island (72 in number) were called upon to take refuge in the Disaster Centre found in the Northern part as from 14-18 April 2016. No damage appears to have been suffered, although Cyclone FANTALA passed nearly 160 km South of Agalega. See pictures of Agalega while approaching on board of 'Mauritius Pride' ferry and the Metorological Station taken in April 2001. 

          

  

On the other hand, the representatives of the MMS often continue to mention through the private radio stations and also the national radio/tv, that FANTALA will not influence the weather in Mauritius’. Yet, Warnings on Sea Swells and Strong Winds are issued. This is contrary to the concept and implementation of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) as defined in the International Protocols and Conventions of WMO and others. Cyclone does not only mean branches and trees falling. Its impact is in the atmosphere, on land and also at the sea. It is noteworthy that the Government of Mauritius is relying much on ocean economy to boost the economic development, by encouraging investments on aquaculture and the fishing industry.

 

The EWS are defined by WMO to include four components:

  1. detection, monitoring and forecasting the hazards;
  2. analysis of risks involved;
  3. dissemination of timely and authoritative warnings and
  4. activation of emergency preparedness and response plans. 

 

So, accurate and timely information should reach every citizen in view of ‘protection of life and property’. The local media and the Ghost-like’ and Foetus-like disaster management centre, including the general public, just follow such ill-conceived explanations by the MMS. Obviously, Disaster Resilience is still remote in this 1.3m population of Mauritius.

 

FANTALA continued to cruise towards the West at 15 kph.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H40 THIS TUESDAY 12 APRIL 2016

Supplementary Information:

At 10h00 LT the Moderate Tropical Storm ' FANTALA ' was centered in latitude 13.1 South and longitude 69.8 degrees East at about 1470 km to the North East of Mauritius.

It is moving in a general westerly direction at about 15 km/h.

 

FANTALA intensified, rapidly, into Severe Tropical Cyclone within 24 hours, keeping the same speed and direction.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04h10 THIS WEDNESDAY 13 APRIL 2016.

GENERAL SITUATION:

Wind is strengthening over our area.

Supplementary information:

At 04h00 this morning, the severe tropical storm 'FANTALA' was centered in latitude13.2 degrees south and longitude 67.8 degrees east that is about 1265 km to the north east of Mauritius. It is moving towards the west at about 15 km/h.]

 

FANTALA intensified further into a Tropical Cyclone on 13 April 2016 while maintaining a constant speed of 15 kph but changing it trajectory West-North-West direction.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H30 THIS WEDNESDAY 13 APRIL2016.

Supplementary Information:

At 16h00, tropical cyclone "FANTALA" was centred near point 12.8 degrees South in latitude and 65.9 degrees East in longitude, that is at about 1170 km to the North-East of Mauritius.  It is moving in a general West-North-Westerly direction at a speed of 15 km/h.]

 

In the meantime, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current prevailed in an enhanced phase with an Anti-cyclone of 1024 Hectopascals. Cyclones in the Southern hemisphere brew the atmosphere clock-wise while Anti-cyclones swirl counter-clock-wise, the reverse. So, the combination of these two energies thrust air currents from the South Pole towards almost the whole of the Tropic of Capricorn both at sea and inland of the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This effect is similar to the shaft movement in mechanics.

 

[SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE ISSUED AT 16H00 WEDNESDAY 13 APRIL 2016.

STRONG WIND WARNING FOR MAURITIUS, RODRIGUES AND ST-BRANDON VALID AS FROM 04H00 O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY 14 APRIL 2016.

The combined effect of tropical cyclone FANTALA in the north and the anticyclone to the south of the Mascarenes will cause strong winds in the regions of Mauritius, Rodrigues and St-Brandon. 

East south easterly 35 to 45 km/h winds will gradually strengthen and gusts may reach 80 to 90 km/h in exposed areas. 

Seas will become rough to very rough with swells. 

The public is advised to be careful to flying objects, cross winds on the road and while manoevring on tall structures. 

The public is also strongly advised not venture at sea.

Please consult our routine bulletins for other informations.

This bulletin will be updated by mid-day tomorrow.]

 

 

The Warning was maintained on Friday 15 April 2016. At the same time FANTALA intensified into Intense Tropical Cyclone.

 

[SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE ISSUED AT 12H00 ON FRIDAY 15 APRIL 2016

STRONG WIND WARNING FOR MAURITIUS, RODRIGUES AND ST-BRANDON VALID UNTIL SUNDAY 17 APRIL 2016.

Tropical cyclone FANTALA has intensified into an intense tropical cyclone. The combined effect of  FANTALA to the north and the anticyclone to the South of the Mascarenes is still causing strong winds in the regions of Mauritius, Rodrigues and St-Brandon.

Highest gusts recorded during the last 24 hours are as follows:

Le Morne: 72 km/h

Grand Bassin: 72 km/h

Domaine des Pailles: 68 km/h

St Felix: 61 km/h

Pointe Canon (Rodrigues): 71 km/h

East south easterly winds of 35 to 45 km/h will persist reaching gusts of 80 to 90 km/h in exposed areas. 

Seas will remain rough to very rough with swells. 

The public is advised to be careful to flying objects, cross winds on the road and while manoevring on tall structures. 

The public is also strongly advised not venture at sea. 

Please consult our routine bulletins for other informations. 

This bulletin will be updated  tomorrow afternoon.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H25 THIS FRIDAY 15 APRIL 2016.

GENERAL SITUATION:

A.  A strong wind warning is still in force in Mauritius.

B. Clouds coming from the east are still influencing the local weather.

Supplementary Information:

At 16h00, the intense tropical cyclone ' FANTALA ' was centered near the point  12.4 degrees south in latitude  and 58.8  degrees east in longitude at about 855 km almost to the north of Mauritius. It continues to  move towards the west at about 15 km/h.]

 

The Strong Wind Warning was removed at 10.15 am on Sunday 17 April 2016.  FANTALA proceeded with an increased speed of 20 kph West-North-Westerly.

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H10 THIS SUNDAY 17 APRIL 2016

GENERAL SITUATION:

A.  No strong wind warning is in force in Mauritius as from 10h15 this morning.

B. Clouds coming from the Eastern sector will continue to influence the local weather at times. 

Supplementary Information:

At 10h00, the intense tropical cyclone 'FANTALA' was centered near latitude 10.6 degrees South and longitude 52.6 degrees East, at about 1140 km to the North-West of Mauritius.

It is moving in a general  West North Westly at about 20 km/h.] 

 

The status of FANTALA was upgraded to Very Intense Tropical Cyclone the following day. It maintained its trajectory but with a reduced speed of 12 kph.

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H40 THIS MONDAY 18 APRIL2016.

Supplementary Information:

At 16h00, the very intense tropical cyclone ' FANTALA ' was centered in latitude 9.3 degrees South and longitude  49.3 degrees East  and is evolving to the North of Madagascar, very far from Mauritius. It continues to move in a West North West direction at about 12 km/h]

 

Located at 9.30 South and 49.40 East and ‘793 NM (1468 km) NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EYE FEATURE, PREVIOUSLY WELL DEFINED, NOW BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN’... JTWC Advisories’

 

A weakening of FANTALA was noticed on 19 April 2016. JTWC Advisories mentions:TC FANTALA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION HAS CAUSED UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS FROM BELOW.’

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 THIS TUESDAY 19 APRIL 2016.

Supplementary information:

'FANTALA' has weakened into an intense tropical cyclone. At 04h00 this morning, it was centered in latitude 9.3 degrees South and longitude 49.6  degrees East very  far from Mauritius and is quasi-stationary.]

 

Moreover, the EYE of 27 km width reformed on 20 April 2016 moving East-South-Easterly at 10 kph.

 

The Meteorological Services released the other Bulletins.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H50 THIS WEDNESDAY 20 APRIL 2016.

Supplementary Information:

At 10h00, the tropical cyclone FANTALA was centered around the point 10.5 degrees South in latitude and 52.6 degrees East in longitude. FANTALA is evolving far at a distance of about 1190 km to the North-West of Mauritius. It is maintaining its displacement in an East-South-East direction at a speed of 10 km/h.]

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H45 THIS WEDNESDAY 20 APRIL 2016.

Supplementary Information:

At 16h00, the tropical cyclone FANTALA was centered around the point 11.0 degrees South in latitude and 53.5 degrees East in longitude. FANTALA is still evolving far, that is about 1100 km to the North-West of Mauritius and is moving in a general East-South-Easterly direction at about 13 km/h.]

 

The MMS did not mention anything on FANTALA in its bulletin of 11. 30 am 24 Sunday. The Forecast Track (POOR) had also disappeared. However, in its Weather Bulletin it was mentioned that FANTALAcontinues to move away from our region while weakening further’.

 

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H05 THIS SUNDAY 24 APRIL2016.

Supplementary Info:

At 16h00, the tropical depression "EX-FANTALA" was centred in latitude 10 degrees South and longitude 52 degrees  East. It  continues to move away from our region while weakening further.]

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services continue to lack professionalism in better communication, amongst others. See the POOR Forecast Tracks.

  

 

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