Sunday, 22 April 2018

 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018 ‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 Watch LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 September 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew Producing Dangerous Rainfall'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st SessionSpeech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:South-West Indian Ocean

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH ALL VIDEOS 

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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

     

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

      

The International Meteorological Organisation (IMO) was founded in 1873. It changed to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on 23 March 1950. One year later, that is, in 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations Organisation for meteorology (climate and weather), hydrology (water related issues) and geophysical sciences (environmental issues, etc.). Today, there are 191 Countries world-wide which constitute member states of WMO. The latter has classified these in six regions.

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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

  

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.

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DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS

In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait for Updates)

                    

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MF) have been indicating the formation of Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) and of Cyclogenesis since 26 February 2018. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, so far, not stated about any Low Pressure in its regular Weather Bulletin. It is now that the MMS is mentioning about Tropical Disturbance, at a time when the System has already crossed the Tropical Depression status, 65 km/h (35 Knots) as per JTWC. Lateness by the MMS, in keeping pace with International Centres, still continues. Lessons on the principles of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) are still not being learnt.

This Weather System should be baptized as DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm right now. Besides, a Flood Storm as a Twin System is Highly probable. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is the “Wealth-of-the-Nation”.

 Uploaded: 12.39 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

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South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System-

Earlier, Enhanced and Elongated-

Torrential Rain-Another Perfect Prediction

(Pl, Wait, as uploading is still ON) 

Mention has been made in the ‘Weather and Summer Season 2017-2018’: “The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently.”

Furthermore, the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of Cyclones: AVAIRVINBERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands. They also prove that the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is, too, Active and is prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. Besides, it has made an onset Earlier than other seasons. It also seems to have an Elongated lifespan, as its ‘peak is still ahead’, as mentioned in the last article: 'Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST-Mozambique Channel'  

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BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Tracking Along East of Mauritius-

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

 (Pl, Wait, for ASSESSMENT Report soon)

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone is the third System of Summer Season 2017-18 of South Indian Ocean, after AVA and IRVIN. As a Moderate Tropical Storm, it threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January 2018. However, BERGUITTA showered graciously (52-110 mm) the drought-stricken island, as 100% Perfectly Predicted since 09 January. It is also a Phenomenon which has formed according to a change in Weather Pattern of this zone. It is highly likely to cruise along the landmass of Mauritius as from Wednesday 17 January. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has issued, at 4.30 pm Monday 15 January, Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius, after waiving Class III for Rodrigues. The Impacts are forecast to cause lots of material damages as Mauritius has been soaked by Heavy Rains since the New Year 2018. Besides, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is very Robust since a few days. BERGUITTA being a ‘Small-Size-System’ will, no doubt, move as from Wednesday 17 January, according to the tremendous and enhanced phase of the ACC-World Most Powerful Wind. It is Predicted to pass near the closest point at Trou-D’Eau-Douce in the East of MauritiusReunion Island too is under its ‘agenda’. DOOMSDAY?

PKANHYE.                10.11 pm MONDAY 15 JANUARY 2018.

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99S INVEST (CEBILE Failed to Form) in Mozambique Channel

Weather in the Southern Hemisphere of Season 2017-2018 continues to evolve in different pattern and in a very dynamic way, as mentioned in previous articles. Rainfalls and Cyclonic Systems are already causing disasters in this zone. After Tropical Cyclone AVA made landfall in Madagascar 03-05 January 2018, Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January. Cyclone IRVIN (06-08 January 2018), luckily, tracked in the open Southern Indian Ocean, without meeting any land mass. However, Reunion and Mauritius have been showered Heavily during all these episodes. On one hand, while Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA continues to intensify and to appear a serious menace to Mauritius, on the other side a Tropical Disturbance is in formation in the Mozambique Channel. This is the ‘Hot Spot’ of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin. International Centres: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it 99S INVEST; Météo-France (MF) has named it as 4-2017-2018. In case of intensification, it may be named CEBILE Moderate Tropical Storm. Besides, it resembles DINEO after CARLOS in Season 2016-2017.  Is it DOOMSDAY?

 

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96S INVEST-Forecast as Severe Tropical Cyclone

Within 24 Hours for Australia- 

Named JOYCE

(See Updates below)

                

The Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. IRVIN-Severe Tropical Cyclone formed in the West of Cocos Island. It was named, by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), on 06 January 2018. IRVIN is still influencing Eastern Indian Ocean and a Fujiwhara Effect is expected with the weakening Tropical Cyclone AVA.

Another Cyclone is highly probable, for Western Australia. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified Tropical Disturbance 96S INVEST to intensify within 24 hours. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) indicates, as at 5.52 pm (11.52 am Mtian-Time), 09 January 2018, that ‘Tropical Low’ is expected to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone almost at the same pace.

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Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018. 

100% Perfect Prediction

97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)

(See Updates below)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean has undergone a Dynamic Change in Weather Patterns, as compared to the previous years. Rodrigues Island, located around Latitude 220 South and Longitude 630 East, in under the impacts of the currently prevailing Cyclones AVA and IRVIN-the First Twin Weather Systems of this zone. Moreover, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. Besides, Reunion Island has already broken, yesterday 09 January 2018, the World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations. This is Predicted, highly likely, to happen by 13 January 2018.   

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IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM

Evolving from Cocos Islands-

2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is Still ON) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean appears to develop a particular dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rains. While Tropical Cyclone AVA is making landfall across Madagascar, bands of Rain Clouds are following it, causing additional Disasters. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) has named another System as IRVIN Tropical Cyclone this morning. This Cyclone is moving West South-West at 20 kph. It represents a serious threat to Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion which have, during current week, been under floods associated with Tropical Cyclone AVA.

NB: Météo-France-Reunion (MFR) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC have been consistently signaling Cyclogenesis in this zone.

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AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018

South Indian Ocean

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is still ON)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean started officially from 01 November 2017. A Rainy episode occurred 14-17 November thereon. One Sub-Tropical Disturbance evolved in South of Madagascar 09-12 November 2017 and a second one on 17 November. Another Rainy period lasted from 23 to24 December 2017. Tropical Disturbance 94S INVEST formed on 29 December in the South-East of Diego Garcia moving almost West South-West after a slow intensification. Local, regional and international Forecasters experienced a lot of uncertainty regarding its dissipation or upgrading. Finally, it was named, at 10.00 am today 03 January 2018, by Météo-Madagascar as AVA Moderate Tropical Storm. It is noteworthy to state that the Pattern of Cyclogenesis for this Season seems to have changed as compared to that of 2016-2017 and of previous years.

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Weather and Cyclone Names for Summer Season 2017-2018

Southern Indian Ocean Basin

(Pl Wait, Uploading is Still ON)

The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently. 01 November marks, officially, the beginning of Summer Season in the South-West Indian Ocean. However, as at date, Cyclogenesis have been signalled rather timidly, at local, regional and international levels. Nevertheless, the Summer Outlook 2016-17’ released by KANHYE.COM is a Record in Prediction of Weather on Medium Term basis. Refer to article.

Keep watch for more.

PKANHYE                    11.25 am Saturday 30 December 2017.

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OCKHI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-Brief Assessment and

Disaster Resilience in India

International Centres

NOAA Climate Prediction Center has been indicating Cyclogenesis and Rainfall in the Bay of Bengal since 01 November until 28 November 2017. It was valid although Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI tracked towards the Arabian Sea. Refer to the pictures.

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Central India-Heavy Rains and Cyclonic System Approaching

                (Updated: 4.30 pm Monday 24 July 2017.)

                                   

On one hand, the Northern Hemisphere-Tropic of Cancer seems to be under the onslaughts of a series of Cyclonic Systems. While the Atlantic Ocean appears to be rather calm, except one Cyclone, the Weather Systems in the whole Pacific Ocean are very dynamical. NOAA explains: There appears to have been some organization of a coherent MJO signal over the past one to two weeks, though other convective variability continues to make for a complicated picture.”

On the other hand, the South-West Indian Monsoon is triggering Heavy Rainfalls and Flash Floods in which more than 70 people have been reported dead during this week and economic, agricultural and residential sectors have also been seriously affected.

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MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal

Churning Monsoon Rains  and

Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect

The rapid evolution, since 25 May 2017, of 94 B INVEST into Severe Cyclonic Storm MORA and its eventual dissipation, is no doubt Phenomenal. It is also a matter of fact that it has, in combination with the South-West Monsoon, caused disastrous impacts all along its track until making landfall in Bangladesh. The Early Warning Systems seem not to be Perfect. UN and Media reports indicate considerable losses of lives, damage to property and economic loss, coupled with Humanitarian Crisis.

 (Uploaded: 11.50 pm SUNDAY 04 JUNE 2017)

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Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the

South-West Monsoon System-

MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named.

 (See UPDATES: 10.50 pm Sunday 28 MAY 2017

& 12.25 pm Monday 29 MAY 2017)

The South-West Monsoon Season of Asia seems to be trapping a Tropical Disturbance which is evolving since a few days in the Bay of Bengal. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it as 94 B INVEST on 26 May 2017. However, the probability of Cyclone Development was forecast to be Low, as the System showed slow development. However, it has signalled some slight improvement today.

UPLOADED: 5.00 pm SATURDAY 27 MAY 2017.

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MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and

WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier

(See UPDATE below)

 

The Climate and Weather Patterns in whole Indian Ocean appear to have changed. The Summer Season 2016-2017 for Southern Indian Ocean has already ended before 15 May, as mentioned in earlier article. In other words, Winter Season has started in 16 April 2017, as stated previously. WWW.KANHYE.COM has made another record in Weather Predictions for January to May 2017. See articles previously published.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has released its 'Winter Outlook on 12 May 2017', based on its usual forecasts (although late).

The South-West Monsoon of Asia has also started earlier than normal period-20 May. Various regions of India have been under Thunderstorms since 12 May 2017, accompanied by Rains. While Mumbai was showered with Light Rains, other places in the North-East saw significant Precipitations. Heavier showers are forecast for many other regions.

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MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm Forecast to Make Landfall

in MYANMAR around Midnight on 16 APRIL 2017.

The Low Pressure located, on 15 April 2017, at Latitude 14.70 North and Longitude 90.50 East, approximately 564 Nautical Miles of Dhaka, Bangladesh, has intensified into a Deep Depression. At 1730 hrs on 15 April 2017, it was located at Latitude 14.3º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 340 km West North-West of Maya Bandar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and 680 km south-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) has moved with a Rapid Speed of 28 kph towards the North-East of Bay of Bengal. 

Owing to its further intensification, it has been named today as MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm and is tracking towards almost the same direction at 24 kph, for an eventual Landfall. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), MAARUTHA ‘is likely to move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast near Sandoway around mid-night of today, the 16 th April 2017’.

CLICK HERE to verify with Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

Or CLICK Animation icon here with NOAA or here with IMD.

(Uploaded: 3.16 pm SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

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Winter Approaching Earlier With Rains and

Summer 2016-2017 Departing with Late Showers

(This is the last article on Summer Season 2016-2017

Uploaded from Motherland Mauritius)

The outgoing Summer Season 2016-2017 of the Southern Indian Ocean has been remarkable with ‘Change in Climate and Weather Patterns’, as PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017. The incoming Winter Season of 2017 seems to ring the ‘Alarum Bell’ with an early entry. Heavy Rainfalls have been recorded in Mauritius and Reunion Islands during this transitional period. The Atmospheric Conditions around the Mascarenes indicate a Wet Winter Season. (Watch Video below).

(Uploaded: 11.30 am SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

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