Sunday, 16 December 2018

WATCH ALL VIDEOS HERE   

             

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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PHETHAI named- (94B INVEST/Deep Depression) in Northern Indian Ocean and evolving since 14 December 2018 is Predicted to intensify and make landfall in two days’ time.

                                                                                                       

Both the Northern and Southern Indian Ocean, including Western Pacific, are still experiencing Cyclonic Conditions, despite being in the Winter Season. A Deep Depression (Tropical Depression) in the Bay of Bengal is influencing Weather near Shri Lanka and adjoining Eastern Territories of India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Press Release at 13.00 hours on Friday 14 December 2018. See below.

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GAJA Cyclonic Storm-Bay of Bengal

Pre-Winter Season 2018

The whole of Indian Ocean is under the rare phenomenon of simultaneous formations of Cyclones. While the Southern Ocean is experiencing a dual Weather System-ALCIDE and BOUCHRA, The Northern Hemisphere has begotten –GAJA Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of Bengal. It is highly likely to evolve into further intensifications within 4-5 days. Moreover, Very Severe Air quality prevailing in India is likely to cause chocking breath for the population.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Press Release today 11 November 2018 as follows:

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BOUCHRA Mod/Trop/Storm-Weakening & Reviving

2nd Cyclone for Season 2018-2019

(See updates below)

    

Mention has been rightly made in previous article regarding ALCIDE, that ‘the formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019.’ Also that ‘the presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season.’

The Tropical Disturbance which was evolving at 5.7°South and 88.8°East of Diego Garcia has intensified rapidly. The System has been named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), at 22.30 hrs on Saturday 10 November 2018, as Moderate Tropical Storm BOUCHRA. This 2nd Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean and which has named within a week-time of ALCIDE, proves that Season 2018-2019 will no doubt beget a Dynamic Period. While Tiny ALCIDE is still struggling and weakening in the North-East of Madagascar, BOUCHRA was almost stationary far 3000 km North-East of Mauritius. As at today, 11 November, it is moving Westwards at 14 km/h.

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94S INVEST-ALCIDE First Cyclone Season 2018-2019

Heralded by Traditional Knowledge and

Ahead of International Scientific Centres

  (Pl, see Update  below)

                   

The formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019. Observations of the Atmosphere around the Mauritius, made by applying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) indicated an oncoming Dynamic Cyclonic Season. It is very interesting to note that tropical fruits have been blossoming almost everywhere, especially mangoes and litchis which were very low in production during last year and during precedent seasons. The sky invaded by Alto Cumulus Clouds on 23 October 2018 confirmed the Formation of Cyclone and Rains which are approaching.

The presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season. It is noteworthy to state that the Pacific Ocean has undergone a boisterous season with more than 28 Typhoons this year. So, the paradigm shift is now in the Southern Hemisphere.

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Cyclonic Storm LUBAN-Arabian Sea and Deep Depression-Bay of Bengal

Coincide with the gradual Withdrawal of

South-West Asian Monsoon System 2018

       

Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR(17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in North Indian Ocean. The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) Onset, officially, started as from Tuesday 29 May 2018 in Kerala, causing Humanitarian Crisis thereafter during 13 to 23 August.

Cyclonic Storm LUBAN in the Arabian Sea was named yesterday Monday 08 October 2018 and Cyclonic Storm TITLI in the Bay of Bengal has been baptised today Tuesday 09 October. The landmass of India, the sub-continent, is sandwiched between these two Weather Systems, coinciding also with the Monsoon Withdrawal which normally takes place by 15 October 2018. All these prove that Natural Disasters are evolving dynamically in the Northern Indian Ocean. India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC), has issued its Warning as from Monday 08 October 2018.

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South-West Asian Monsoon 2018 Early Onset 

WMO Salutes IMD

   (See Final Update)

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) has officially started as from today Tuesday 29 May 2018. It is interesting to say that the Atmospheric Conditions of the recent weeks have been marked by Heat Waves, Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstones and Dust Storms. These have been Deadly with at least 150 losses of lives, lots of destructions and damages across India. Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in whole Indian Ocean. Like-wise the South-West Asian Monsoon System has made an early entry, just like last years’ onset on 30 May 2017, contrary to previous years. The same was mentioned in articles on SAGAR and MEKUNU in this Website. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mentioned the 2018 Monsoon Onset from Kerala region as from 29 May.

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MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (92A INVEST)

Very Rapid Intensification Threatening Directly

Horn of Africa, Socotra, Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

(Final UPDATE below. Pl, be patient. )

    

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Northern Indian Ocean along the Tropic of Cancer is evolving in an enhanced phase. Hardly has SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (17-21 May 2018) made landfall in Northern Somalia and Ethiopia, 92A INVEST has formed since 18 May 2018. This Tropical Disturbance is highly likely to intensify into a Tropical Depression/Deep Depression very rapidly and be named probably today as MEKUNU. Eventually, it is forecast to be upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm very early. The Atmospheric Conditions in the Zone of Arabian Sea reaching 310 Celsius and of the adjoining landmass (Oman) 40-42 degrees Celsius are conducive for the evolution of a Stronger Storm than the previous one. Horn of Africa, Socotra, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia all fall along the JTWC Forecast Track. So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.

No doubt, this will influence the South-West Asian Monsoon whose onset is Predicted, by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to take place earlier than 01 June 2018.

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SAGAR (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for

Socotra, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula.

(See Updates  below)

                                         

While the Tropic of Capricorn of the Southern Indian Ocean is transiting towards the Winter Season, the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Indian Ocean has made a leap into Summer Season 2018. Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Hailstorms, Lightning, Rains and Winds are already showing Deadly Disasters in India since 03 May 2018. These are preceding the South-West Indian Monsoon by about a month earlier than usual. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain Iraq and Iran are experiencing Dust Storms together with 30-44 degrees Celsius of Heat.

A band of Low Pressure near the coast of Somalia and South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea is showing signs of Rapid Development. India Meteorological Department (IMD) identified it since 10 May 2018, while NRL identified it as 91A INVEST yesterday-14 May 2018.

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Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Strong Winds-

Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding

2018 Monsoon in India

         

Almost whole of India is experiencing Extreme and Deadly Weather Conditions since the beginning of May 2018. Dust Storms transporting sand particles and combination of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and a lot of air pollutants have invaded the Indian Sub-continent from mostly the Arabian Peninsula. Heat Waves, Hailstones, Thunder, Lightning, Rains have caused losses of more than 150 lives, including hundreds of injured people and material damages, have been reported by the local media. Houses have been damaged by Strong Winds, falling trees, service poles, mudslides and Rains. In fact, the 2018 South-West Monsoon System for India is forecast to start as from end of May, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi.

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FLAMBOYAN (98S INVEST)-Near Cocos Island Very Rapid Development into

Tropical Cyclone named by Indonesia BMKG

After Phenomenal and Disastrous Severe Tropical Storm FAKIR (93S INVEST) and dissipation of 96S INVEST, another Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST is in the pipeline. Located in East of Southern Indian Ocean at Latitude 8.00 South and Longitude 94.60 East, it is evolving near Cocos Island. However, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) whose Area of Responsibility is along Longitude 900 East to 1600 East has not mentioned any Tropical Disturbance so far. ABOM is also the Regional Special Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone and is mandated to issue Advisories for the its Member States.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr

Nevertheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been identifying a Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST since Thursday 26 April 2018. As at today JTWC has upgraded the Weather System from Low to Medium and High. In its Advisories JTWC has mentioned “This system is expected to reach 35knots within the next 24hours and be numbered TC 21S by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

PKANHYE.    Uploaded: 12.12 pm SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

 

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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

(Pl, wait for updates)

     

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

      

The International Meteorological Organisation (IMO) was founded in 1873. It changed to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on 23 March 1950. One year later, that is, in 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations Organisation for meteorology (climate and weather), hydrology (water related issues) and geophysical sciences (environmental issues, etc.). Today, there are 191 Countries world-wide which constitute member states of WMO. The latter has classified these in six regions.

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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

  

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.

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DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS

In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait for Updates)

                    

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MF) have been indicating the formation of Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) and of Cyclogenesis since 26 February 2018. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, so far, not stated about any Low Pressure in its regular Weather Bulletin. It is now that the MMS is mentioning about Tropical Disturbance, at a time when the System has already crossed the Tropical Depression status, 65 km/h (35 Knots) as per JTWC. Lateness by the MMS, in keeping pace with International Centres, still continues. Lessons on the principles of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) are still not being learnt.

This Weather System should be baptized as DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm right now. Besides, a Flood Storm as a Twin System is Highly probable. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is the “Wealth-of-the-Nation”.

 Uploaded: 12.39 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

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South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System-

Earlier, Enhanced and Elongated-

Torrential Rain-Another Perfect Prediction

(Final update after 15 May 2018)

Mention has been made in the ‘Weather and Summer Season 2017-2018’: “The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently.”

Furthermore, the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of Cyclones: AVAIRVINBERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands. They also prove that the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is, too, Active and is prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. Besides, it has made an onset Earlier than other seasons. It also seems to have an Elongated lifespan, as its ‘peak is still ahead’, as mentioned in the last article: 'Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST-Mozambique Channel'  

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BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Tracking Along East of Mauritius-

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

 (Pl, Wait, for ASSESSMENT Report soon)

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone is the third System of Summer Season 2017-18 of South Indian Ocean, after AVA and IRVIN. As a Moderate Tropical Storm, it threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January 2018. However, BERGUITTA showered graciously (52-110 mm) the drought-stricken island, as 100% Perfectly Predicted since 09 January. It is also a Phenomenon which has formed according to a change in Weather Pattern of this zone. It is highly likely to cruise along the landmass of Mauritius as from Wednesday 17 January. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has issued, at 4.30 pm Monday 15 January, Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius, after waiving Class III for Rodrigues. The Impacts are forecast to cause lots of material damages as Mauritius has been soaked by Heavy Rains since the New Year 2018. Besides, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is very Robust since a few days. BERGUITTA being a ‘Small-Size-System’ will, no doubt, move as from Wednesday 17 January, according to the tremendous and enhanced phase of the ACC-World Most Powerful Wind. It is Predicted to pass near the closest point at Trou-D’Eau-Douce in the East of MauritiusReunion Island too is under its ‘agenda’. DOOMSDAY?

PKANHYE.                10.11 pm MONDAY 15 JANUARY 2018.

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99S INVEST (CEBILE Failed to Form) in Mozambique Channel

Weather in the Southern Hemisphere of Season 2017-2018 continues to evolve in different pattern and in a very dynamic way, as mentioned in previous articles. Rainfalls and Cyclonic Systems are already causing disasters in this zone. After Tropical Cyclone AVA made landfall in Madagascar 03-05 January 2018, Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January. Cyclone IRVIN (06-08 January 2018), luckily, tracked in the open Southern Indian Ocean, without meeting any land mass. However, Reunion and Mauritius have been showered Heavily during all these episodes. On one hand, while Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA continues to intensify and to appear a serious menace to Mauritius, on the other side a Tropical Disturbance is in formation in the Mozambique Channel. This is the ‘Hot Spot’ of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin. International Centres: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it 99S INVEST; Météo-France (MF) has named it as 4-2017-2018. In case of intensification, it may be named CEBILE Moderate Tropical Storm. Besides, it resembles DINEO after CARLOS in Season 2016-2017.  Is it DOOMSDAY?

 

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96S INVEST-Forecast as Severe Tropical Cyclone

Within 24 Hours for Australia- 

Named JOYCE

(See Updates below)

                

The Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. IRVIN-Severe Tropical Cyclone formed in the West of Cocos Island. It was named, by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), on 06 January 2018. IRVIN is still influencing Eastern Indian Ocean and a Fujiwhara Effect is expected with the weakening Tropical Cyclone AVA.

Another Cyclone is highly probable, for Western Australia. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified Tropical Disturbance 96S INVEST to intensify within 24 hours. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) indicates, as at 5.52 pm (11.52 am Mtian-Time), 09 January 2018, that ‘Tropical Low’ is expected to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone almost at the same pace.

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Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018. 

100% Perfect Prediction

97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)

(See Updates below)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean has undergone a Dynamic Change in Weather Patterns, as compared to the previous years. Rodrigues Island, located around Latitude 220 South and Longitude 630 East, in under the impacts of the currently prevailing Cyclones AVA and IRVIN-the First Twin Weather Systems of this zone. Moreover, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. Besides, Reunion Island has already broken, yesterday 09 January 2018, the World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations. This is Predicted, highly likely, to happen by 13 January 2018.   

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IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM

Evolving from Cocos Islands-

2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is Still ON) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean appears to develop a particular dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rains. While Tropical Cyclone AVA is making landfall across Madagascar, bands of Rain Clouds are following it, causing additional Disasters. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) has named another System as IRVIN Tropical Cyclone this morning. This Cyclone is moving West South-West at 20 kph. It represents a serious threat to Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion which have, during current week, been under floods associated with Tropical Cyclone AVA.

NB: Météo-France-Reunion (MFR) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC have been consistently signaling Cyclogenesis in this zone.

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