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96S INVEST-Forecast as Severe Tropical Cyclone

Within 24 Hours for Australia- 

Named JOYCE

(See Updates below)

                

The Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. IRVIN-Severe Tropical Cyclone formed in the West of Cocos Island. It was named, by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), on 06 January 2018. IRVIN is still influencing Eastern Indian Ocean and a Fujiwhara Effect is expected with the weakening Tropical Cyclone AVA.

Another Cyclone is highly probable, for Western Australia. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified Tropical Disturbance 96S INVEST to intensify within 24 hours. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) indicates, as at 5.52 pm (11.52 am Mtian-Time), 09 January 2018, that ‘Tropical Low’ is expected to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone almost at the same pace.

The Advisories released are as follows:

<<< AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:52 pm AWST Tuesday 9 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 6.

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings...

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Warning declared for coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome. Tropical Cyclone Watch continues for coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland. There still remains a significant risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting northern WA.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Kuri Bay to Bidyadanga.

Watch zone: Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. 
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South, 124.2 degrees East . 
Movement: west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low currently lies close to the northwest Kimberley coast. The low is expected to move offshore and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday. There remains a significant risk of a severe tropical cyclone impact over the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara late Thursday or Friday. There is however some uncertainty in the forecast track and the system may impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome, as early as Wednesday afternoon. GALES may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland later on Thursday.

Heavy rainfall is expected over the far northwest Kimberley coast for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday, extending to the far eastern Pilbara during Thursday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 150 mm are expected with isolated heavier falls of 150-300 mm possible. Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Kuri Bay and Wallal Downs, including Broome and Derby, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water
. >>> 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) released is Alerts as from 09 January 2018:

[[[WTXS21 PGTW 090230

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 126.1E TO 17.7S 120.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS...

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 125.9E , APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA...

RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW...

DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24 AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.]]]

Uploaded: 3.10 pm Tuesday 09 January 2018.

 

96S INVEST has tracked West North-West, ‘offshore’, but is Forecast to move along the initial path. The intensification is expected tonight or on Thursday. ABOM Advisories published today 5.00 am (Mtian-Time), Wednesday 10 January 2018 stay as follows:

[[[ TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:47 am AWST Wednesday 10 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 12

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am AWST: 

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. 
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.6 degrees East , 150 kilometres northwest of Derby and 175 kilometres north northeast of Broome . 
Movement: west at 10 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low is now offshore from the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or during Thursday. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impact over the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara late Thursday or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, and it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday.]]

 

Refer to other Information published by ABOM.

[[[Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Cockatoo Island and Bidyadanga, including Broome, overnight or early Thursday morning. GALES may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs from Thursday morning, and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland later on Thursday or early Friday. If the system tracks further to the west then GALES are possible in areas between Port Hedland and Whim Creek.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Beagle Bay and Wallal Downs, including Broome, on Thursday if the system develops quickly and is close enough to the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Pardoo Roadhouse late Thursday or Friday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre of the system as it approaches the coast late Thursday or Friday.

Tides will be higher than expected between Cape Leveque and Pardoo Roadhouse.

Heavy rainfall is expected over the northwest and west Kimberley coast, extending to the far eastern Pilbara during Thursday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 150 mm are expected with isolated heavier falls of 150-300 mm possible. Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga, including Broome and Bidyadanga need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in, near and between Cockatoo Island and Cape Leveque, not including Derby and between Bidyadanga and De Grey, including Pardoo, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in Derby are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by any damage
.]]]

 

JTWC has renamed 96S INVEST as TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), for Warning purposes. The Advisories released early 10 January 2018 are as follows:

{{{WTXS33 PGTW 100300 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE

REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER THEREFORE JUSTIFYING THE ISSUE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING...

IT WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 05SIS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 6. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY...

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 36. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK...

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, VARYING ON THE SPEED OF THE TURN MEANING THAT SOME MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING ENTIRELY OVERLAND WHILE OTHERS TRACK FARTHER WEST OVER WATER.}}} 

Updated: 2.11 pm Wednesday 10 January 2018.

 

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 

96S INVEST has been named, this morning of Thursday11 January 2018, by A-BOM as Tropical Cyclone JOYCE. The Forecast Track has some slight change. Refer to Alert below.

[[[TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Issued at 11:40 am AWST Thursday 11 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 20.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce formed earlier this morning off the west Kimberley coast and is expected to intensify today while moving in a southwesterly direction. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting the Pilbara or far west Kimberley coast during Friday, or early on Saturday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour. 
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.0 degrees South, 121.6 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 155 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque . 
Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara late on Friday or during Saturday.]]] 

Verify here: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Updated: 10.50 am Thursday 11 January 2018.

 

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE, Category I, made landfall ‘inland from the east Pilbara coast’, in the early hours of Saturday 13 January 2018. It is expected to Weaken thereafter, triggering Heavy Rainfalls along its Forecast Track. See below.

{Tropical Cyclone Joyce 

Issued at 2:44 am AWST Saturday 13 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 34.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce is moving southwest, inland from the east Pilbara coast. Although Joyce will weaken this morning, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely to continue along its track over the weekend.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar.

 

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour. 

Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South, 119.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar and 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Joyce should weaken this morning as it tracks to the southwest through the inland Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible along the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse through to De Grey and to inland areas as far as Marble Bar for a period on Saturday morning.

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue near the track of the system over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 100 mm are expected, with isolated heavier falls of 100-250 mm possible near the system centre.
}

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PKANHYE.   Final Update: 3.25 pm SUNDAY 14 JANUARY 2018.   

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Read more:

Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018: 97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA be named) 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM-2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018;

AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018 South Indian Ocean, etc.  

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