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HALIBA 11th Tropical Cyclone in Formation and Tropical Disturbance

Generating Monsoon Rains in the South West Indian Ocean

SEE UPDATE BELOW


The Cyclonic Season 2014-2015 of the South West Indian Ocean continues to be Very Dynamic. One interesting feature is that the Zones of the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar seem to give birth to series of Tropical Depressions, Cyclones and Precipitations. On one hand they appear to be Phenomenal and on the other hand a Puzzle to the Scientific Community. As observed since 02 March 2015, the Low Pressure which evolved in the North East of Madagascar does not appear to intensify rapidly. However, it is moving towards the South and generating Monsoon Rains. If it intensifies then i
t has the potential to form the 11th Tropical Cyclone which can be eventually named as HALIBA by Madagascar.Whereas, the Low Pressure located in the Mozambique Channel is swirling rather towards the South West, i.e. Continental Africa and is evolving slowly and incoherently. (Click pictures to enlarge).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) identified Low Pressure Systems both in the North West of Madagascar (Mozambique Channel) and in the North East of Madagascar as from 04 March 2015.

JTWC Alert was as follows:

[ABIO10 PGTW 04 2230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

/REISSUED/042230Z-051800ZMAR2015//

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 42.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST…

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.]

JTWC issued another Alert for the same Weather System on 08 March as follows:

[ABIO10 PGTW 080300

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 40.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 382 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Regarding the Tropical Disturbance located in the North East of Madagascar JTWC issued Alert as from 05 March:

 [ABIO10 PGTW 05 1800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/05 1800Z-06 1800Z MAR 2015.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 52.2E,

APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 051324Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BECAUSE

THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

JTWC issued another Alert for the same Weather System at 3.00 on 08 March as mentioned below:

[ABIO10 PGTW 08 0300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN…

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 49.7E

IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 50.0E, APPROXIMATELY 339 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.]

 

Météo-France-Réunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the South West Indian Ocean issued its advisories on Tropical Disturbance 94 S INVEST after renaming it as 11-20142015

[Bulletin du 06 mars à 16H16 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1000 HPA.

Position le 06 mars à 16 heures locales: 16.4 Sud / 41.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1560 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: OUEST, à 6 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 07/03 à 16h locales, par 16.2 Sud / 40.8 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 17.2 Sud / 42.0 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 16h locales, par 18.2 Sud / 43.4 Est.

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 16h locales, par 19.4 Sud / 46.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 16h locales, par 20.9 Sud / 51.4 Est’.]

 

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 04H17 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1000 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 04 heures locales: 16.7 Sud / 41.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1555 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 11 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 04h locales, par 17.0 Sud / 41.6 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 04h locales, par 18.4 Sud / 43.5 Est.

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 04h locales, par 19.6 Sud / 47.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 04h locales, par 20.0 Sud / 53.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 04h locales, par 24.4 Sud / 59.6 Est.]

 

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 16H52 locales:

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1003 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 16 heures locales: 16.6 Sud / 40.7 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1600 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: OUEST, à 4 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 16.7 Sud / 42.9 Est.]

 

Météo-France-Reunion issued a Bulletin regarding the Tropical Disturbance located on the Eastern Side of Madgascar

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 16H52 locales:

ZONE PERTURBEE 12-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1003 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 16 heures locales: 18.9 Sud / 49.6 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 635 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD, à 6 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 20.6 Sud / 51.7 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 16h locales, par 21.7 Sud / 55.6 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 16h locales, par 23.0 Sud / 59.6 Est.

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 16h locales, par 25.2 Sud / 62.4 Est.

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 65.4 Est.]

 

[Bulletin du 08 mars à 10H42 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 12-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 999 HPA.

Position le 08 mars à 10 heures locales: 19.7 Sud / 50.6 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 505 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 9 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 10h locales, par 21.0 Sud / 54.2 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 10h locales, par 22.3 Sud / 59.0 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 10h locales, par 24.5 Sud / 62.2 Est.

DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 10h locales, par 26.1 Sud / 63.6 Est.]  

 

Météo-France-Réunion is still on High Alert. Click here to verify.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services issued a Special Bulletin on Friday 06 March mentioning, amongst others:

[Special weather bulletin issued on Friday 06 March 2015 at 15hr30.

General situation:
(a) The air mass covering our region remains moist and unstable, thereby favouring active cloud developments during the week-end.
(b) A vast area of low pressure extends from the Tromelin Island to the Mozambique Channel with several pressure minima. One of these pressure minima to the north-east of madagascar is likely to develop into a weak low today. Most numerical models indicate that this weak low may deepen further into a tropical disturbance during the week-end
.]

Forecast valid until Tuesday 10 March 2015.

 

Comments   

0 #2 Bakers 2015-03-17 16:01
I enjoy reading all your articles.
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0 #1 Nyle 2015-03-14 17:00
Very good! You are an inspiring writer. Thanks!
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