AMBALI First Cyclone of South-West Indian Ocean in formation

Cyclone Names
Summer Season 2019-2020

The Northern Hemisphere is already moving towards the Winter Season. The Southern Hemisphere is cruising towards the Summer and Cyclonic Season of 2019-2020. On one hand the Tropic of Cancer is under the influence of a Low Pressure in the seas around Somalia, Northern Africa, since the end of November 2019. Another Tropical Depression is evolving in around Lakshadweep Archipelago, South-West of India. It gave heavy showers killing 17 people therein on 01 December 2019. On the other hand, another Low Pressure is likely to give birth to the First Cyclone for the South-West Indian Ocean. Both these Weather Systems are evolving concurrently at a distance of about 1245 km, as per Windy.com. Further intensifications seem to be uncertain or slow.

https://www.windy.com/?-0.234,68.643,4

India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned (33%) Low probability of Cyclone Genesis for the Arabian Sea during the period 29 November to 12 December 2019. It seems that the Weather System 90A INVEST is rather showing signs of weakening. In this circumstances, Rains Clouds associated with the Low Pressure will give some showers in the coastal region of Somalia. The Sea Surface Temperatures vary between 27⁰-30⁰ Celsius.

91S INVEST located between South of Seychelles and North of Madagascar appears more likely to intensify slowly. Besides, it is moving in the Hot Spot of the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is also 27⁰-30⁰ Celsius as explained by JTWC.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has mentioned, as supplementary information, in its Weather Bulletin of Saturday 30 November 2019:

[[[Supplemmentary information:
A vast zone of low pressure is evolving to the North of Agalega.
There are indications that this low pressure will intensify slowly and may become a moderate tropical storm beginning of next week.
At this stage, the system is not influencing the weather over the Mascarene islands.
However, the evolution of this system is being closely monitored.]]]

The same has been published repetitively until Monday 02 December 2019. This means that the Weather System 91S INVEST is stationary and is not intensifying. The JTWC is equally on same footing. 

However, it is expected to intensify by Thursday 05 December, as per the Cyclogenesis Forecast of Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South-West Indian Ocean.       
     
Seychelles Meteorological Administration's daily weather outlook of 03 December 2019 indicates wind speed varying 30-45 with maximum of 70 kmh, highest temperature reaching 28⁰-29⁰ C; humidity of 85-90 %, wind direction of North-West , rough sea and cloudy sky with occasional showers.

Météo-Madagascar states that Rains of 100 to 300 mm showered during the period 18 to 24 November 2019. Regarding the second week of 25 Nov.-01 Dec. the showers were expected to 25-75 mm. But, Rainfall for 02 to 08 December are forecast to be between 100 and 200 mm. The Temperature is forecast to maximise at 34-37⁰ Celsius during the current week. The sky is now cloudy and sunny with showers in the North and North-East.

It means that the Tropical Depression 91 S INVEST is carrying rain clouds of higher rates. On one side, the System is still elongated since the beginning without a real centre. On the other side, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) being the strongest wind of the Blue Marble is blowing in a robust phase. The Anti-Cyclone generated by the ACC has reached until the shoreline of Southern Seychelles. So, this is the main reason why 91 S INVEST is unable to intensify further. It may revive around Wednesday 05 December 2019. In such conditions the Tropical Depression will be named as AMBALI Moderate Tropical Storm. However, the System seems to be of small diametre, but capable of bringing Rains all around. It is also likely to pass through Northern Madagascar and move towards Mauritius and Reunion Islands during the next week end.

If any Tropical Depression, Storm, Cyclone and Tornado takes birth between Longitudes 30⁰ East and 55⁰ East, it is the Area of Responsibility (AOR) for Madagascar which is one Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC) and has therefore the duty to name it. In the event of any such cyclonic system which forms between Longitudes 55⁰ East and 90⁰ East, it is the Area of Responsibility (AOR) for Mauritius, as the second Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC) and is bound to name it. 

Observations of the atmosphere and of clouds from the ground of Mauritius reveal that there are lots of intermittent Rainfalls. Besides, the Temperature has reached 340 Celsius, Humidity is rather average 48-62 % and the Wind Speed varying between 36 and 56 kmh. 
      

Keep Watch for Updates

PKANHYE       4.04 pm TUESDAY 03 DECEMBER 2019.

The names of cyclones of the South West Indian Ocean are provided by the following 14 countries which are situated within the 30⁰-90⁰ zone: Botswana, Comoros, France (Reunion), Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Kenya, Lesotho, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. The Tropical Depressions are baptized in alphabetical order (A to Z). They bear male or female names and they are used only once. Cyclones which move from the Australian AOR, continue to bear the same original names.       

LIST OF NAMES OF CYCLONE/STORMS TO BE USED IN
SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN DURING SEASON 2019-2020

Nothing and no one is superior to Nature. We are all obliged to obey to the Laws of Natural Forces. The two Deep Depressions which formed in the Arabian Sea have faded out gradually contrary to the way they were evolving. Like-wise, the Tropical Depression 91 S INVEST which was visible in the Satellite Imageries since 27 November 2019 in South West Indian Ocean is still not intensifying. It should be noted, as mentioned above, that it is elongated and is not having a clear centre. However, the System will surely take much more time to reach Cyclone status. 

It is surprising that the other Tropical Depression 92 S INVEST which took birth between Agalega and Diego Garcia Islands two days ago, has intensified rather rapidly. As it has been forming in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), has been named at 10.00hrs as AMBALI Moderate Tropical Storm. It is therefore the First Cyclone for this season for the South-West Indian Ocean. In the event of the other Tropical Depression 91 S INVEST initially expected to reach Cyclone Status, will be named as BELNA Moderate Tropical Storm after further intensification sooner or later. So, we should get attuned to the Laws of Mother Nature. 

Refer to MMS Bulletin in the Supplementary Information:
[[[Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius 
WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H30 HOURS ON THURSDAY 05 DECEMBER 2019.

Supplemmentary information:
The tropical depression that was evolving to the North-East of Agalega has intensified further into a moderate tropical storm and was babtised AMBALI by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. At 10h00 this morning AMBALI was centered near the point 8.3'S in latitude and 63.7'E in longitude while moving in a general south-south-westerly direction at about 9km/h.
 
The other tropical depression is still evolving to the North of Madagascar. There are indications that this system will intensify further into a moderate tropical storm. 

At this stage, these systems are not influencing the weather over the Mascarene islands. However, the evolution of these two systems is being closely monitored.]]]

AMBALI has intensified further during the afternoon of today 05 December.

[[[Supplemmentary information:
The moderate tropical storm AMBALI has intensified further into a severe tropical storm. At 16h00, AMBALI was centered near the point 9.1'S in latitude and 63.0'E in longitude about 700km to the East-North-East of Agalega. It is moving in a general South-Westerly direction at about 10 km/h.

The other tropical depression is still evolving to the North of Madagascar. There are indications that this system will intensify further into a moderate tropical storm.

At this stage, these systems are not influencing the weather over the Mascarene islands. However, the evolution of these two systems is being closely monitored.]]]

The Summer/Cyclonic Season 2019-2020 for the South-West Indian Ocean Basin appears to be again dynamic. The last season brought 14 Weather Events (Cyclones and Floods), as a record for this zone. It appears that the same scenario is likely to occur during this Season.

Keep Watch for updates.
PKANHYE 21.04 hrs THURSDAY 05 DECEMBER 2019.