AMPHAN Cyclonic Storm Rapid Intensification
First for Bay of Bengal Summer 2020
First during COVID 19 PANDEMIC
India Meteorological Department Delhi
AMPHAN (UM-PUN) is the first Cyclone which has taken birth during the current CORONA VIRUS (COVID 19) PANDEMIC. It is also the First for the Summer Season 2020 of the Northern Indian Ocean, pending the Onset of the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) in KERALA around 01 June. India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentions (17 May) that the Weather System which is evolving in the Bay of Bengal has intensified rapidly into Severe Cyclonic Storm (85-95 gusting to 105 kph), after being a Depression and a Deep Depression two days ago reached its Cyclonic Storm status yesterday.
The Forecast Track made by IMD shows that AMPHAN will likely move North-East across Bangladesh through Sagar and Hatya Islands. It is forecast to make landfall around the North-East of India and impact also around the borders of Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar in the coming days. The Advisories of IMD indicate that AMPHAN will probably intensify further into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in the evening today Sunday 17 May and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (170-180 gusting to 200 kph) in the early hours of Tuesday 19 May. It will phase out gradually after 20-21 May.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
The Advisories of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) released today 17 May 2020 are as follows:
[[[[170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
17MAY20.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 162347Z SSMIS 37 AND 89 GHZ CHANNELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE 162345Z CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS, WELL ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW STEADY-TO-RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21 FEET.]]]]
WATCH LIVE FROM IMD- https://mausam.imd.gov.in/
Keep Watch for Updates.
PKANHYE 11.25 am SUNDAY 17 MAY 2020.
IMPACTS of AMPHAN and COMMENTS
Indian media have been releasing pictures and videos regarding the Impacts of Super Cyclone AMPHAN in the zones of Odissa and Bangladesh. Unfortunately, it has been observed that the public in general did not seem to have been Aware, Prepared and Adapted to the prevailing of the Super Weather. Cars, busses, rickshaws, trucks, houses, etc. were seen severely damaged and/or broken by branches, and trees under which they were parked/built. It was also noted that the authorities of Kolkata had refrained from trimming overhanging trees and branches, along main roads and residential areas, estimated to be hazardous for public safety. Many trees got uprooted thus damaging houses, vehicles and power and telephone supply networks. Besides, the number of Losses of Life is rather alarming. All these indicate that ‘Disaster Resilience’ is very farfetched in India, as mentioned various times in this Website. Very SAD ! ! !.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) mentioned the following on 26 May 2020 regarding the impacts of AMPHAN Super Cyclonic Storm:
“In India, Odisha and West Bengal states were affected, with nearly 60 million people affected and at least 80 people killed in West Bengal alone. More than 700,000 people were evacuated across India and at least 80,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed. In Bangladesh, 10 million people were affected by Cyclone Amphan and at least 25 people were killed. An estimated 2.4 million people were evacuated ahead of the storm. According to preliminary reports, 330,000 houses were damaged, including 55,600 destroyed in the nine most affected districts. The cyclone led to the internal displacement of at least 100,000 people who are currently staying on embankments and with friends or relatives. Satkhira, Khulna, Barguna, and Patuakhali districts were most severely affected, with up to 1.2 million people highly affected in those four districts alone. (OCHA, 26 May 2020).»
Verify here- https://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2020-000136-mmr
PKANHYE. 10.13 am SATURDAY 06 JUNE 2020.