AMPHAN Cyclonic Storm Rapid Intensification

First for Bay of Bengal Summer 2020

First during COVID 19 PANDEMIC

    India Meteorological Department Delhi

AMPHAN (UM-PUN) is the first Cyclone which has taken birth during the current CORONA VIRUS (COVID 19) PANDEMIC. It is also the First for the Summer Season 2020 of the Northern Indian Ocean, pending the Onset of the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) in KERALA around 01 June. India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentions (17 May) that the Weather System which is evolving in the Bay of Bengal has intensified rapidly into Severe Cyclonic Storm (85-95 gusting to 105 kph), after being a Depression and a Deep Depression two days ago reached its Cyclonic Storm status yesterday.

The Forecast Track made by IMD shows that AMPHAN will likely move North-East across Bangladesh through Sagar and Hatya Islands. It is forecast to make landfall around the North-East of India and impact also around the borders of Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar in the coming days. The Advisories of IMD indicate that AMPHAN will probably intensify further into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in the evening today Sunday 17 May and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (170-180 gusting to 200 kph) in the early hours of Tuesday 19 May. It will phase out gradually after 20-21 May.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

The Advisories of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) released today 17 May 2020 are as follows:

[[[[170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.

17MAY20.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY  712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 162347Z SSMIS 37 AND 89 GHZ CHANNELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE 162345Z CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS, WELL ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW STEADY-TO-RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21 FEET.]]]]

WATCH LIVE FROM IMD- https://mausam.imd.gov.in/

Keep Watch for Updates.

PKANHYE                         11.25 am SUNDAY 17 MAY 2020.