NISARGA and Depressions Preceding South-West Asian Monsoon System 2020

 

NISARGA Storm and Depressions Preceding South-West Asian Monsoon System 2020

      

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) launched a Press Release on Monday 01 June 2020 explaining the Depression located in South-West Seas of India. It is forecast to intensify into a Deep Depression later today, into a Cyclonic Storm on Tuesday 02 June and with further intensify into Severe Cyclonic Storm by the evening on same day. The System is very likely to phase out gradually, after that.

 

A previous Depression had moved towards the land of Salalah, Oman a few days ago in a weakening mode.

 

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) usually ONSETS as from 01 June in the zone around Kerala. Given, that this Depression is currently evolving just westwards of Kerala Rains are already showering the region. The question is whether both the Cyclonic System and the Monsoon will prevail concurrently or that the Cyclone will intensify and make landfall thereafter or yet, the SWAMS will be delayed, just like last year?

 

Refer to the Advisories of IMD Delhi.

{{{Depression over East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea: Pre cyclone watch for Maharashtra-South Gujrat Coasts of India....

 

The Depression over East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea moved North-Northwestwards with a speed of 13 kph during past 6 hours. It lay centred at 06.00 UTC of today the 1st June, 2020 near Latitude 13.70 North and Longitude 71.2 0 East about 340 km South-West of Panjim (43192), 630 South South-west of Mumbai (43003) and 850 km South South-West of Surat (42840)…

 

It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression over East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea during next 06 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over East-Central Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move near Northwards initially until 00.00 UTC of 02nd June and then recurve North-North-Eastwards and cross North Maharashtra and South Gujrat Coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and Daman (42916) during 07.00 to 12.00 UTC of 3rd June.}}}

Keep Watch for updates.

 

PKANHYE.                   18.33 Hrs. MONDAY 01 JUNE 2020.

 

IMD updated its Advisories on 04 June 2020 as follows:

 

{{{BULLETIN NO.: 34 (ARB/02/2020)  

TIME OF ISSUE: 1915 HOURS IST

DATED: 04.06.2020

Sub: Well Marked Low Pressure area [remnant of the Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘NISARGA’] over central parts of Madhya Pradesh.

The Depression [remnant of the Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘NISARGA’] over south

Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha moved north-northeastwards, further weakened into a Well Marked Low Pressure area and lay over central parts of Madhya Pradesh at 4th 1730 hours IST of today, the 04

June 2020. It is very likely to weaken gradually into a Low pressure area.

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall:

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over northeast Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh during next 12 hours. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh during next 12 hours.

(ii) Wind warning

Strong winds, speed reaching 25-35 kmph is likely to prevail over central parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Districts. It is likely reduce gradually during next 12 hours. This is the last Bulletin pertaining to this System. Regular weather Bulletins will be continued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre, New Delhi, RMC Nagpur, MCs (Bhopal, Raipur &

Lucknow) depicting the warnings associated with the remnant Low Pressure System.

(Sunitha Devi. S)

Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi.}}}

 

IMPACTS and COMMENTS

The passage of NISARGA Severe Cyclonic Storm has caused much panic for the public and policy makers of Maharashtra and neighbouring provinces. Storm surge, falling trees, branches and volatile objects and COVID 19 PANDEMIC. The newly elected Chief Minister of Maharashtra has been having two main Natural Calamities to cope with. On one side, Maharashtra is the most area which has been horribly struck by the CORONA VIRUS with more than 44,000 Deaths and on the other is NISARGA Cyclone. He has provided INR100 Million to rehabilitate the losses during NISARGA.

 

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) mentioned the following on 26 May 2020 regarding the impacts of AMPHAN Super Cyclonic Storm:

 

In India, Odisha and West Bengal states were affected, with nearly 60 million people affected and at least 80 people killed in West Bengal alone. More than 700,000 people were evacuated across India and at least 80,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed. In Bangladesh, 10 million people were affected by Cyclone Amphan and at least 25 people were killed. An estimated 2.4 million people were evacuated ahead of the storm. According to preliminary reports, 330,000 houses were damaged, including 55,600 destroyed in the nine most affected districts. The cyclone led to the internal displacement of at least 100,000 people who are currently staying on embankments and with friends or relatives. Satkhira, Khulna, Barguna, and Patuakhali districts were most severely affected, with up to 1.2 million people highly affected in those four districts alone. (OCHA, 26 May 2020).» 

 

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2020-000136-mmr

 

PKANHYE.       10.42 am SATURDAY 06 JUNE 2020.

Satellite Animation