DIANE CYCLONE 4th for Season 2019-2020
South-West Indian Ocean
Cyclone Warning Class 3 MAURITIUS and Cyclone Warning Class 1 RODRIGUES
By applying Traditional Knowledge (TILK/P) and by Observing the Atmosphere from the Ground of Mauritius, there are indications that a CYCLONIC SYSTEM together with RAINS are approaching the South-West Indian Ocean. See the picture taken on Thursday 09 January 2020.
Uncomfortable Heat and Humidity felt by everyone confirm that DIANE 4th Cyclone of the Season 2019-2020 is in formation along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Besides, the heat, carbon emissions and pollution generated by the Forest Fires of Australia are converging towards the South-Indian Ocean. The data recorded by Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), as at date, show that: Temperature has reached 330 Celsius, Humidity is at 61-91 % and Wind Force is blowing at maximum of 47 kph. All these parameters confirm that the Weather System is evolving in this zone.
Keep Watch for Updates.
PKANHYE. 17.50 hrs MONDAY 13 JANUARY 2020.
Dynamics of South-West Indian Ocean Weather
The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) released a Special Weather Bulletin/Weather Outlook on 17 January 2020, mentioning about a Low Pressure located between Madagascar and Mauritius likely to intensify as a Moderate Tropical Storm. See below.
[[[Special Weather Bulletin
Fri, Jan 17, 2020
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 11H30 ON FRIDAY 17 JANUARY 2020 VALID UNTIL THURSDAY 23 JANUARY.
Atmospheric conditions are expected to become favourable for the development of a low pressure system in the region between Madagascar and Mauritius.
The low may intensify and become a moderate tropical storm in the course of next week.
A gradual deterioration of weather is likely as from Tuesday 21 till Thursday 23. There may be moderate to heavy rain, windy conditions and rough seas.
The situation is being closely monitored and updates will follow.]]]
The MMS stated, on 18 January, that the Low Pressure between Madagascar and Mauritius would probably intensify as ‘Moderate Tropical Storm’ (MTS) ‘ín the course of next week’. Another Low Pressure was identified in South-West of Diego Garcia, which would probably evolve as MTS ‘in the course of next week’.
[[[WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 16H30 ON SATURDAY 18 JANUARY 2020 VALID UNTIL THURSDAY 23 JANUARY:
(1) Atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of a low pressure area in the region between Madagascar and Mauritius.
The low may intensify and become a moderate tropical storm in the course of next week.
A deterioration of weather is likely as from Tuesday 21 till Thursday 23.
There may be moderate to heavy rain accompanied with thunderstorms, windy conditions and rough seas.
(2) Another low pressure area is evolving to the South-west of Diego Garcia. The low may intensify and become a moderate tropical storm in the course of next week.
The situation is being closely monitored and updates will follow.]]]
The same parameters were provided, as ‘Supplementary information’ in the successive Weather Bulletins of 19 January. However, on Monday 20 January, the Low Pressure located in the South-West of Diego Garcia showed sins of intensification into a Tropical Disturbance. It should be noted that this System is evolving in a Sea Surface Temperature of 290-300 Celsius (JTWC). See below.
[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 ON MONDAY 20 JANUARY 2020.
Supplementary Information:
Atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of a low pressure area in the region between Madagascar and Mauritius.
The low may intensify and become a moderate tropical storm in the course of the week.
A deterioration of weather is likely as from Tuesday 21 till Thursday 23.
There may be moderate to heavy rain accompanied with thunderstorms, windy conditions and rough seas.
During the night, the low pressure area which was evolving to the south-west of Diego Garcia has intensified into a tropical disturbance.
The tropical disturbance may intensify further and become a moderate tropical storm in the course of the week.
The situation is being closely monitored and updates will follow. ]]]
It is Predicted that DIANE the 4th Cyclone of the Season 2019-2020 is Highly Likely to evolve as from here. During a personal interaction with the Scientist working for Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), rightly identified the Weather System to be of Medium Probability.
{{{ABIO10 PGTW 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//…
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 63.2E APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191109Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT INVEST 94S INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.}}}
Furthermore, the 3rd Low Pressure located in the Mozambique Channel is likely to cross mountainous zone of Madagascar and influence the Low Pressure which was initially found between Madagascar and Mauritius. This one is Predicted to phase out after interaction with the Anti-Cyclone of the South Pole.
Observations of the Atmosphere from the Ground of Mauritius indicate a CHAOTIC SKY. A CHAOTIC SKY is one in which Clouds of all three levels are seen and which appear as a blanket on the sky. This also signifies an approaching Unstable Weather in which CYCLONES and HEAVY RAINS prevail. See picture taken on Saturday 18 January 2020.
NB:
1) It should equally be noted that the Forest/Bush Fires of Australia have caused a
significant impact on the Global Atmosphere, as reported by NASA "Suomi NPP satellite OMPS Nadir Mapper instrument showing a "close-up" from Jan. 13, 2020… Observing Australia's Fires – Smoke coming off the Australian fires has circumnavigated the Earth. In addition to showing the movement of smoke across the globe, our Earth satellites are also providing information about what is happening on the ground in real-time.” and
2) Mentions have been often made, since 2015, that FLOOD STORMS are a new Atmospheric Phenomena which have developed in the South-West Indian Ocean. Moreover, January, February and March, until April represent the period of Monsoon Troughs. This also confirms the prevailing of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS), so badly known and unrecognized by WMO and others.
.
PKANHYE. 18.50 hrs MONDAY 20 JANUARY 2020.
Keep Watch for Updates.
PKANHYE. Updated: 7.59 am TUESDAY 21 JANUARY 2020.