18 January 2021Climate & Weather

ELOISE and JOSHUA Twin Systems

South Indian Ocean-26.10 Celsius.

ELOISE Moderate Tropical Storm was named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 10.00 am Sunday 17 January 2021. This 5th Cyclone for the South Indian Ocean formed in the South East of Diego Garcia in the zone of the Monsoon Trough. It underwent a rapid intensification just like the other Twin System which was named a day before by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) as JOSHUA Moderate Tropical Storm.


It is noteworthy to explain that the previous Cyclone DANILO too had a Twin System near it, with which there was Fujiwhara Effect almost in the zone of the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of ABOM around 05 January 2021. Both ELOISE, moving at 20 kph, and JOSHUA tracking at 15 kph towards the West South-West of the Southern Indian Ocean Basin. While JOSHUA has already left the AOR of ABOM, ELOISE is moving towards Madagascar passing nearly on the North of Mascarene Islands.


The Weather Bulletin issued at 4.00 am Monday 18 January 2021 by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) reads as follows:

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 HRS ON MONDAY 18 JANUARY 2021.


GENERAL SITUATION:
1. A moderate airstream is flowing over our region. Moreover, clouds coming from the East-North-East will influence the local weather during the night.

2. At 0400 hours this morning, Moderate Tropical Storm 'Eloise' was centred around the point 13.4 degrees South in latitude and 58.4 degrees East in longitude, at about 730 km almost to the North of Mauritius. It is moving in a general Westerly direction at about 20 km/h.

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:
Fair weather in general this morning, except for isolated showers over the highgrounds.
Sunny over the whole island during the day.

The maximum temperature will vary between 26 and 28 degrees Celsius over the Central Plateau and  between 31 and 34 degrees Celsius over the coastal regions.

Fair weather in the evening.
Cloudy periods during the night with passing showers mainly to the East, to the North and over the highgrounds.


The minimum temperature will be between 21 and 23 degrees Celsius over the Central Plateau and between 24 and 26 degrees Celsius along the coasts.


Wind from the Eastern sector at about 25 km/h with gusts of the order of 50 km/h in exposed areas.

Sea moderate beyond the reefs with waves of the order of 2 metres.

Supplementary Information:
At 0400 hours Moderate Tropical Storm 'Joshua' was centered around the point 19.2 degrees South in latitude and 87.8 degrees East in longitude and is moving in a general west-south-westerly direction at about 15 km/h. It will not influence the weather over our region.]]]


 NB: General Knowledge indicates that the Summer Season of 2020-2021 for the Southern Hemisphere is conducive to a HOT one. The Temperature felt in Mauritius has reached a Record of 26.10 Celsius last day. In contrast, the ICY and COLD periods of the Northern Hemisphere is showing extreme Winter. Kashmir, India has witnessed a 30 Years record of -08 0 C last week.


http://metservice.intnet.mu/forecast-bulletin-english-mauritius.php



                Updated:   12.17 pm MONDAY 18 JANUARY 2021.



Météo-France-Réunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South Indian Ocean has forecasted the evolution of Moderate Tropical Storm ELOISE:  

{{{WTIO31 FMEE 180059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):

12H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 85 

24H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 100

36H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 110

48H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 55

120H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 100 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 40. }}}                 


The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion have made their Forecast by mentioning that ELOISE will cross the land lass of Madagascar and intensify further in the Mozambique Channel after 20 January. This is a Hot Spot Zone where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST)  is always above 300 Celsius. See tracks.
 
350


Updated: 19.07 hrs. MONDAY 18 JANUARY 2021



Météo Madagascar has issued the following as ELOISE MTS was making landfall in the North-East of Madagascar, mentioning its weakening trend:

                      

|||Après son atterrissage, ELOISE a commencé à s’affaiblir. Le vent moyen associé descend à 85 Km/h avec quelques rafales de 105 Km/h principalement sur la partie Est de la tempête et du côté d’Analanjirofo.Elle poursuivra son trajet en passant sur le Nord d’Analanjirofo et Sofia durant cette nuit. Elle continuera de s’affaiblir de façon significative durant les prochaines heures.Les avis d’alerte sont modifiés comme suit :

  •  Alerte rouge (Danger Imminent) : Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra et Mandritsara ;
  •  Alerte Jaune (Menace) : Toamasina I-II et Alaotra ;
  •  Alerte levée : Brickaville, Vatomandry, Mahanoro et Moramanga.

Veuillez suivre attentivement les consignes émises par les autorités locales. La sortie en mer sur le littoral Nord-Ouest ainsi qu’au Nord de Vatomandry est déconseillée.||| 


Keep Watch for updates.


PKANHYE.   Updated: 8.25 am WEDNESDAY 20 JANUARY 2021.

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