EX-Speaker Mauritius National Assembly AR PEEROO (1 Week before Mega Flash Flood of 30 March 2013)


(8 Days  before the Mega Flash Flood of 30 March 2013.)


Date: 21 MARCH 2013.

HONOURABLE SPEAKER SIR, I am directing the above mentioned issue towards you as a last resort in order to sensitize, amongst others, the Policy Makers of both sides of the National Assembly.

   The Torrential Rain that occurred on Wednesday 13 February 2013, triggered panic on the government, on institutions and on the public (including tourists and other expatriates). I am sure you will agree with me that the management of this episode of Natural Disaster proved the Failure of the EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS that exist in the Republic of Mauritius. The resulting impacts were:

  • despite, the Warning was issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) around 7 am on the 13 February 2013, many children attended their school;
  • with the announcement, by the Cabinet Secretary, of the closure of the government offices at 9.30 am, various employees were stuck in traffic jams caused mostly by flooding of roads, etc.;
  • the private sector workers and transport services were also stranded and
  • damages and losses were caused to cash crops by the floods, especially by inappropriate infrastructural and drainage networks.

  All these havocs could have been better managed if the Policy Makers, institutions, authorities and the media had paid proper attention to the ‘alarum bell’ that I have been ringing since two decades.

   Please, refer to the email I sent to the Director of MMS. I identified the Floods right on Sunday 03 February 2013 and emailed it the next day, i.e. on Monday 04 February. I forecasted this miserable episode EARLIER than anyone. In fact, I have been continuously and consistently sending various emails to the MMS, signalling and identifying probable Disasters. The reasons behind this communication are:

  • in line with my promise of sharing I made to Mr. Dunputh, Director of MMS during my meeting with him on 17 October 2013, three days before my campaign trip to Rodrigues;

  • I am translating, besides other International Protocols, the provisions of Article 6 of Doha Convention, into actions and

  • I have been constantly requesting Mr. Boodhoo, ex-Director of MMS since 2008 to launch Awareness and Preparedness Campaigns and their ‘raison d’etre’ (see annexure).


Honourable Speaker, you will recall the Fact Finding Committee (FFC) that the government instituted following the Deadly Flood that occurred on 26 March 2008. I had deponed to the Committee with documents illustrating scientific explanations of the miserable occurrence. Justice Domah, who was appointed as the Chairman shouldered by Assessors Mr. Vaghjee- ex director of the Mauritius Meteorological Services and Mr. Rosalie ex-Secretary for Home Affairs and Chairman of Cyclone and Other Natural Disasters Committee, all failed to pay attention to what I had Predicted for year 2010 and written on the 4th page of that document. Please, refer to the extract copy overleaf. This is exactly what the Weather System, called Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), did and is still operating in the Southern Indian Ocean.

  The report of this FFC made many recommendations and suggestions which I had also mentioned in my documents. I remember at the time that I was deponing, I had informed the Assessors that I was writing a book, mainly for secondary school students, on the oncoming disasters that I had Predicted for the current and future decade. I also mentioned that I was doing it with limited resources and I asked them to give me support, especially that they were interested in my project. I am obliged, at this conjuncture, to blame them for their dishonesty, specifically, that they did not at all mention about the impact of the MJO in our region, as I had explained in my document. As per their Terms of Reference, they had the obligation to emphasize on the Early Warning System with an eye cast on the impacts of this MJO. If Justice Domah and Mr. Rosalie have not got the competence in understanding the dynamics of Climate and Weather prevailing in this zone, Mr. Vagjee ex-director of the MMS should, on the contrary, have probed in the picture that I was trying to clarify. He was the Master of Climate Management during several years. He should have been on the same wave length than me and decode the signal that I was giving and he should have alerted accordingly the Government, the MMS, the media and other stake holders and the public on the probability and/or the accuracy of the awaiting Hazard, like a real professional at the service of the citizens of this Republic. But Alas!!

    I wrote and invested on a voluminous and precious document pregnant with scientific data and information entitled: ‘AN URGENT AND AUTHENTIC PLEADING FOR AN AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN IN VIEW OF MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN’. I submitted it, on 08 June 2011, to the following Policy Makers of the Republic of Mauritius: Prime Minister, Deputy Prime minister, President of Republic, Leaders-MMM, MSM, PMSD, OPR & MR (Rodrigues). I have specified, amongst other things, in the introduction that this “precious document, besides being unique and priceless...., is also a testimony of my almost lifelong devotion to sensitizing everyone-local and international, in Awareness and Preparedness which have been my ‘cheval de bataille’ since two decades. My objective is to educate everyone in view of adapting ourselves towards the various Natural and Man Made Calamities that are at our door step.

   On page 25, I have mentioned that calamities-‘cyclones and floods will start visiting us in January 2013’. Cyclone DUMILE (31 Dec.2012- Jan. 2013) is a vivid example of the accuracy of my Weather Prediction. Mr. the Speaker Sir, neither someone felt the urgency of my pleading nor someone communicated with me, at least to thank me for such unique and crucial information. GOD knows why!  

   I embarked, since 20 October 2012, on a campaign of Awareness and Preparedness in Rodrigues.

The main reasons being as follows:

  • that my Predictions also imply that cyclonic calamities are at the door step and alertness should be on the high side;

  • I am expecting other hazards like Earthquakes both land and marine, acid rain, ash emissions, asteroid bombardments, etc.;

  • I am formulating the missing link between the authorities and the citizens and

  • it coincided with the recognition of 13 October as a world Disaster Reduction Day as per the UN.


Let me tell you about my trip to Rodrigues. After my arrival there, I submitted a copy of my precious document to the following persons: the President of Rodrigues National Assembly, Hon. Francisco Francois, Hon. Rosaire Perrine, Mr. Benoit Jolicoeur editor of L’Express newspaper and to Mr. Ashok Beeharry of MBC Rodrigues.  They were all invited to my Press conference which I held at Mourook Hotel on 23rd October. To my great surprise the MBC did not attend despite I had explained clearly to Mr Beeharry in his office, my phone call and my email sent to him (see overleaf).  God knows why! After my return to Mauritius I notified the PM and the DG of MBC of these miserable ‘errors and omissions’.

   My next conference was on 20 November 2012 at the Head Quarters of AREU at Quatre Bornes, where around two dozens of high officials were present. My objective was to sensitize on the impact of droughts, floods and cyclonic conditions on Food Security in Mauritius, Mozambique and Madagascar where the last two are in the disaster-prone-zone. The AREU representatives were very attentive and were satisfied about my explanations and thanked me as they recognized the uniqueness of my data, information and Predictions that I presented. The recent impact assessment report of AREU mentions that the Floods of 13 February 2013 have destroyed 33% of our cash crops amongst others. So, Mr. Speaker Sir, you can see that my campaign is on the right and fast track.

   After the regional elections of Nov-Dec. 2012, I convened almost all the local newspapers and all private radios to a conference at Marie Reine de la Paix on 19 December 2012. Only two reporters attended for only five minutes contrary to my one hour and a half duration of presentation, because their priorities were different-paparazzi !!! Almighty God knows all!

   The formation and passing of Tropical Depressions Dumile, Emang and Felleng during January 2013 arouse lots of ‘errors and missions’ on behalf of the MMS and the MBC. I notified the DG of MBC accordingly (see overleaf). Kindly, also refer to my correspondences to the MBC since 2007 wherein I suggested repeatedly of reserving a tv channel for education related to Natural Calamities. But alas!

   The month of February 2013 is a land mark in the Weather Systems that are prevailing in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean. As mentioned above, I was capable of identifying the oncoming Floods and Cyclone GINO right from Sunday 03 February and alerted the MMS the following day. With the alarum bell ringing in my ears, I was in the office of the Lord Mayor on Thursday 07 February for soliciting, through his two secretaries, his approval of my conference which I proposed to hold for all the Councilors and the staff of the Municipality of Port Louis. I asked the secretaries 3 questions as follows:

1) are you aware that the wind is blowing from the opposite direction since around ten 


2) are you aware that Floods are approaching? and  

3) are you aware that a disastrous cyclone (GINO) is moving in our direction?


Mr. Speaker Sir, all the three answers were in the negative. This is an ocular proof, both by the literate and by the illiterate, of lack of AWARENESS on which I am striving to sensitize since long. Besides, I did not receive any response from the Municipality, as I was told. On Tuesday 12 February I called the secretaries again requesting a reply. I was informed that the Lord Mayor has not yet approved it. However, I asked one of them - is it true that rain is falling heavily in certain regions of Mauritius? She answered in the affirmative because by Tuesday 12 February, Flash Floods had occurred in Rose Belle, Amaury and Quatre Bornes, amongst other regions. The following day- Wednesday 13 February marked the episode of TORRENTIAL RAIN and FLOODS, which in weather jargon is recognized as EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS. Am I right Sir?

   As a devout PATRIOT, I phoned the private secretary of the Prime Minister soliciting a meeting in order to disseminate my scientific explanations of the Torrential Rain. I did the same thing on the advice of the private secretary of Mr. Calikan-DG of MBC (see email copy). Sir, I am still waiting for their reply. God knows why!


Despite all ‘vents et marées’ and in line with my ongoing campaign, I introduced the Awareness Programme in a few colleges. As it is said that ‘charity begins at home’, I started on 25 February 2013 from the Islamic Cultural College which is the nearest institution from my residence- Vallée des Prêtres. I had taken a similar door to door action for the benefit of more than a dozen pre-primary and primary schools, in 2009 on the outbreak of AH1N1.


Some college rectors have informed me that they need prior approval by the Ministry of Education. I did not waste time and contacted Minister Bunwaree. His secretary counselled me to send an email explaining my request. In fact, I sent at least 4 emails clarifying my campaign, including other related issues (see overleaf). His secretary replied by informing me that the request is being considered. Mr. Speaker Sir, I am still waiting for the approval. God knows why!


Honourable Speaker, I would like, at this conjuncture, to signal to you a few loopholes in other sectors which are not pro-active. I wrote to the Ministry of Agro-industry for information from the Remote Sensing Centre for my weather forecasts, etc. but no reply has been given to me until now (see annexure). Such attitude is against the provisions of the paragraph 19 of Article 6 of Doha Convention, namely Public access to information (see copy). Why is this denial? God knows why!


The Agalega issue is again on the forefront. Had the Mauritius Research Council (MRC) approved my financing, my proposed solutions for our citizens would have brought solace. On the eve of my departure to Agalega in April 2001, I had a serious meeting with the newly appointed Human Rights Commissioner, Justice Dheeraj Seetulsing. I mentioned to him that I would be active in tracking down violations of Human Rights in our territory. He was satisfied with my intention and encouraged me and also replied officially to the suggestions I had made. I have commented lengthily in my precious document of June 2011, how I was ill-treated by the officers of the OIDC when I was in Agalega Island. God knows why the MRC denied supporting my project! (See overleaf).


I would like to show a last pro-negative case. Please, refer to the correspondences I have sent to Minister of Arts & Culture and others. It is self-explanatory regarding the chance of highlighting the two unique International Heritage Sites of Le Morne and of Appravasi Ghat on the world atlas. But alas!


Honourable Learned Speaker Sir, I hope that you have now concluded why I am knocking at your door. All the gruesome pictures that I have depicted to you show that there are lots of signs proving that the Early Warning Systems in the Republic of Mauritius are under the whims and caprices of a ‘Protocolaire’ System, Bureaucratic, Unprofessional, Inefficient and Laissez-faire attitude. These weaknesses also imply that they constitute ingredients which lead to the boiling pot of Bad Governance, and are also indications of gross violation of International Protocols and Conventions which Mauritius has adhered to. If this trend is maintained, I do not foresee any gold medal or whatsoever this Republic can grab. Therefore Sir, a brake should be applied immediately because the system is cruising towards the ditch.


You do know well that this Republic is a Democratic Sovereign State where Human Rights are clearly enshrined in the Constitution. In light of these, the Government has the solemn and sacred duty of providing Protection and Security towards the citizens and expatriates. Adopting appropriate strategies with a legal framework regarding the Early Warning Systems, are one of the venues for providing and assuring the Protection and Security required. Early Warning System is defined as Real Time Warning, e.g. Warnings should be issued within 15 minutes of the occurrence of a Tsunami. At the moment that I am writing this memorandum are you aware, Mr. Speaker Sir,  that an Earthquake of Magnitude 5.0 has occurred about 300 km East of Rodrigues yesterday? Has the MBC announced this information including lots of others in the Indian Ocean? Right now I have Predicted and notified the MMS that HEAVY RAINFALLS will take place in Mauritius during 22-28 March 2013.

   I like to often quote what Dr. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, mentioned in the Grand Baie Conference in March 2005, following the Devastating Tsunami of 26 December 2004 (which I had Predicted in March-April 2002): Disaster reduction is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education...We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information. This constitutes a basic guideline for addressing Natural Hazards.

   At least three conferences have been hosted by the Government of Mauritius on Climate issues after I had submitted my precious document to the Policy Makers in 2011. Neither someone has invited me to participate nor have I, because the news is broadcast by the MBC either after they are over or when they have already started. Had the Foreign experts, who have been conducting these conferences, explained as I am doing, then the Disaster Management by the Government and the MMS and other authorities would have been efficient. Perhaps the participants did not understand the explanations rightly given by the experts. One participant from Seychelles Mr. Shah, stated in May 2011 to the MBC that no scientific research information is available regarding this part of the Indian Ocean. He is wrong. The question is what are the Mauritian Researchers of MOI, MID, Ministry of Environment, MRC, etc. including the MMS, doing? God knows!


Qatar hosted the Climate Change Conference in Doha in November 2012. I do not know about the Mauritian participation. According to Article 6 of Doha Convention, Education, Training, Public Awareness, Public access to information, Public Participation etc. are the priorities for the implementation of this Convention, amongst others (see copy). There is no one who is acting on it, except me. Please, note that I am devoting to it on a voluntary basis and by mobilizing all my available resources. God knows everything!

  So, Mr. Speaker Sir, the whole system should be rephrased, restructured and launched again with appropriate and sufficient investment. You should have noticed that nothing or very little is earmarked in the Finance Bills, despite all the ‘errors and omissions’ committed chronically during disasters. The Political Will should become transparent. Mauritius has witnessed three Torrential Rains within five years. I have Predicted Mega Disasters which are at the door step.


In light of all these episodes described above, I am requesting you Mr. Speaker Sir, as the Guardian of the Business of the National Assembly, to assemble (say in Vagjee Hall) all the Policy Makers both from the Government side and the Opposition side, including the Members of the National Disaster Committee, so that I can make my Presentation. What I am proposing is above politics. It is not an arena for political strife. It is a question of Awareness, Preparedness, Sharing and Solidarity in order to mitigate the impacts of Natural Hazards. In short it is a question of ‘CONSCIENCE COLLECTIVE’, holistically speaking.

Everyone should remember that the Millennium Development Goal will mature in hardly two years’ time. All loopholes must be eliminated. Education is the golden gate towards addressing poverty, as prioritized by 189 states of the UN. In the same way, educating a poorly-disaster-managed-society is the pathway towards nurturing resilience and mitigation of loss of lives, property, food security and other damages during a calamity. This is also a track towards sustainable development. The Government, past and present, has the tendency of chasing for recourse to foreign expertise which is usually costly. In this situation, MADE IN MAURITIUS is better and this must be included in the slogan-ENN PAYS ENN NATION ENSEL DESTIN.

   My presentation is also a show of my lifelong Scientific documentation and explanation on this part of the Indian Ocean. It is unique and priceless. Besides, I am used to do pioneering works in various fields throughout my lifespan. Earthquakes, Tsunamis and a host of other hazards are likewise explained.

Do you see Sir, what I can do for my country?


Best regards and thank you MY LORD


  PREABRUTH KANHYE.                        21 MARCH 2013.

(First uploaded in October 2013 on First Website-http///www.kanhye.com which was cyber attacked in December 2019)

(Re-Uploaded on New Website-http///www.kanhye.com)


PKANHYE. 17.40 Hours FIRDAY 03 APRIL 2020.

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