HABANA Moderate Tropical Storm 9th Named by MMS today 04 March 2021 Rapid Intensification in South Indian Ocean Basin

HABANA Moderate Tropical Storm 9th

Named by MMS today 04 March 2021

Rapid Intensification in South Indian Ocean Basin

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rightly identified the Tropical Depression above the Northern zone of South Indian Ocean Basin. While GUAMBE Tropical Cyclone is now evolving in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the first advisories were released in the morning of Thursday 04 March 2021. See below.

 

///WTXS21 PGTW 040300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//

RMKS/

 

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 68.8E TO 17.2S 75.9E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 69.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.

 

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 67.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032043Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.///

 

{{{Special Weather Bulletin

Thu, Mar 4, 2021

Mauritius Meteorological Services 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1130 hours on Thursday 04 March 2021

Analysis of surface observations and satellite imagery indicate three areas of active convection, namely: 

 

i) Severe tropical storm Marian evolving in the Australian region. This system will not interest the Mascarene Islands. 

 

ii) A marked low pressure area to the northeast of Rodrigues. Last night this low intensified into a tropical disturbance. Latest observations indicate that it has now reached the tropical depression intensity. 

 

At 1000 hours this morning it was centred at about 880 km to the east-northeast of Rodrigues and is moving in an east-southeast direction at a speed of about 25 km/h, that is, it is moving away from Rodrigues. This tropical depression is likely to intensify further and will become a Moderate Tropical Storm by the end of the day. In the event of this scenario, this system will be named HABANA. Most Numerical Weather Prediction Models affirm that this system will continue to track towards the east southeast and therefore, will not directly influence weather over the Mascarenes. 

 

iii) The third area of active convection is located in the Mozambique Channel. Weather models are predicting that a shallow low will cross Madagascar and emerge almost to the east of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean on Saturday morning. While evolving in the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Madagascar, the system will encounter favourable environmental conditions, namely good ocean heat content and fairly good divergence aloft. This low will then deepen rapidly into a tropical depression while moving towards the east-southeast, with likelihood of intensifying further into a moderate tropical storm on Sunday afternoon. 

 

As per NWP forecast, this system will pass at a distance of about 400 km to the southwest of Mauritius on Sunday. A convergence line associated with the depression/storm will cross Mauritius on Sunday giving scattered showers over the island. The showers are likely to become widespread and moderate with risk of thunderstorm in the evening and at night. The wind will blow from the northwest at a speed of about 35 to 40 km/h with gusts likely to reach 75 km/h on Sunday.

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the development of these systems and this bulletin will be updated tomorrow by mid-day. 

 

04 March 2021.

Vacoas.}}}

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Keep Watch for Updates.


PKANHYE.     21.35Hours THURSDAY 04 MARCH 2021.

Satellite Animation