IRONDRO Moderate Tropical Storm
9th For South Indian Ocean Season 2019-2020
The South Indian Ocean continues to be Dynamic in terms of Heavy Rains and Cyclones in series. Tropical Cyclone HEROLD threatened the whole of Mascarenes Islands: Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues, especially in terms of Rains.
It is worthwhile to state that the formation of HEROLD was heralded by the application of Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P), since 02 March 2020. This short Term Prediction is a Masterpiece, just like some more others made in previous years in terms of Long and Medium Terms. HEROLD was named by Météo Madagascar Meteorologists at 22.00 hours on Saturday 14 March 2020. Refer to article in Website.
IRONDRO, the 9th Cyclone for this zone is already in the pipeline, since today 30 March 2020. Mother Nature is also indicating FLOODS approaching. See the picture captured form the Ground of Mauritius during this evening.
With the COVID 19 128 Positive Cases and 3 Deaths, as at today in Mauritius, the Wobble and Ides of March are just around.
NB: Today marks exactly 7 years when the First Mega Flash Flood struck Mauritius by causing the death of 11 Innocent citizens. Let me also recall you that, that Weather Event was Predicted 10 days beforehand.
Keep Watch for more soon.
PKANHYE. 21.50 Hours MONDAY 30 MARCH 2020.
REMARKS
Again and Again, it is crystal clear that Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) has an interesting Edge on Scientific Knowledge in Predicting Natural Hazards. The Formation of IRONDRO was observed form the Ground of Mauritius and indicated by Mother Nature as from 30 March 2020. Mauritius See for yourself.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has named the Tropical Depression located at 12.50 South and 69.20 East South-West of Diego Garcia, as Moderate Tropical Storm IRONDRO at 10.00 am today Thursday 02 April 2020. The Weather System is evolving with central pressure of 997 and is moving towards the South-East at 10 kph.
[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H40 ON THURSDAY 02 AVRIL 2020.
Supplementary Information
The tropical depression evolving to the south west of Diego Garcia has intensified into a moderate tropical storm and has been named IRONDRO by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 02/1000 hours. It is moving away towards the south-east and will not influence over our region.]]]
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been tracking the Tropical Depression (91 S INVEST) closely. The Advisories published are, briefly, as follows:
<<<ABIO10 PGTW 010330.
EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD.>>>
JTWC released its first Advisories after the MMS named the Tropical Depression at 10.00 am today Thursday 02 April 2020. According to its forecast, mentioned has been made, that IRONDRO will intensify further. A bull’s eye formation is apparent and its track will change shortly.
<<<WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001//
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.9E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER…
A 020506Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020507Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A PATCH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT…
TC 24S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48…
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK..
TC 24S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48…
AFTER TAU 60, TC 24S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN VWS (30+ KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING WHILE THE SYSTEM COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)…
AFTER TAU 72, TC 24S WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, NEAR THE JET, WITH VWS INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOLING TO LESS THAN 26C…
TC 24S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET.>>>
Météo-France-Réunion
Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone, published its Advisories today. Almost the same forecasts are stated.
/// WTIO31 FMEE 011234
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/11/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 11
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/04/2020 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 02/04/2020 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 03/04/2020 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 03/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPI
CALE MODEREE
120H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE.///
Keep Watch for Updates.
PKANHYE. Updated: 21.48 Hours THURSDAY 02 APRIL 2020.