GABEKILE Moderate Tropical Storm-
7th for Season 2019-2020
Named by Mauritius Meteorological Services 15/02/2020
The Dynamics of Summer Season 2019-2020 for the South Indian Ocean has been clearly explained in previous articles. Moderate Tropical Storm FRANCISCO named on 05 February 2020 revived after being degraded into a Disturbance. It is now a Depression making landfall in Central Eastern Madagascar under a Heavy Rain Warning.
The Tropical Disturbance which was evolving in the North North-East of Rodrigues intensified as a Tropical Depression on Friday 14 February. It has intensified further rapidly and the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has named it as Moderate Tropical Storm GABEKILE today at 10.00 am Saturday 15 February 2020. Located at Latitude 16.30 South and at Longitude 74.50 East, it is 1210 km East North-East of Rodrigues and 1815 km East North-East of Mauritius. It is tracking Southerly at a slow speed of 06 kph for the time being.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South Indian Ocean have been constantly monitoring its formation and evolution.
Keep watch for updates soon.
PKANHYE. 11.33 am SATURDAY 15 FEBRUARY 2020.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has mentioned about the Weather System in its routine Weather Bulletin, but, in its Supplementary Information paragraph at 16.30 hrs on Friday 14 February 2020. It has stated about the formation and evolution of the Tropical Disturbance located in the North-East of Rodrigues. After naming the System at 10.00 am on Saturday 15 February as Moderate Tropical Storm GABEKILE, upgrading to Severe Tropical Storm at 17.00 hrs on same day. At 5.00 am Sunday 16 February, GABEKILE intensified further into Tropical Cyclone. See below as edited.
{{{WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H30 ON FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2020.
Supplementary information:
The tropical disturbance which was evolving far to the North-East of Rodrigues has intensified into a tropical depression. There are indications that this system will intensify further.
For instance, the system will not influence the weather over the Mascarene islands.}}}
{{{INFORMATION ON SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GABEKILE ISSUED ON SATURDAY 15 FEBRUARY 2020 AT 17H00LT.
During the last 6 hours, Moderate Tropical Storm GABEKILE has intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm.
At 16hr00, it was centered near the point 17.1 degrees South in latitude and 74.1 degrees East in longitude that is at about 1150 km to the East-North-East of Rodrigues.
The storm is moving in a general South-South-Westerly direction at about 10 km/h.
GABEKILE does not represent a direct threat to the Mascarenes islands and will not affect weather at Mauritius and Rodrigues for the next 3 days.}}}
{{{Special Weather Bulletin
Sun, Feb 16, 2020
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GABEKILE ISSUED ON SUNDAY 16 FEBRUARY 2020 AT 05H00LT.
During the last 12 hours, Severe Tropical Storm GABEKILE has intensified into a Tropical cyclone.
At 04hr00 this morning, it was centered near the point 18.4 degrees South in latitude and 74.8 degrees East in longitude that is at about 1190 km to the East-North-East of Rodrigues.
The storm is moving in a general Southerly direction at about 12 km/h.
GABEKILE does not represent a direct threat to the Mascarenes islands and will not affect weather at Mauritius and Rodrigues for the next 3 days.}}}
Keep Watch for more.
PKANHYE. Updated: 11.48 am SUNDAY 16 FEBRUARY 2020.
Météo-France-Réunion-RSMC
Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre of South Indian Ocean, released its advisories as from 15 February 2020. GABEKILE was forecast to intensify into Severe Tropical Storm within 12 hours and be downgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm after 24 hours. MFR mentioned about weakening of the System as a Depression as from 19 February. However, GABEKILE reached the status of Tropical Cyclone in the early morning of Sunday 16 February and reduced to Severe Tropical Storm. It is Quasi-Stationary as at Monday 17 February.
Furthermore, the Trajectory seems to track almost similar to that of FRANCISCO South-West and Westwards. The reason behind this probability is the continuing of EDDIES and VORTICES evolving in this zone.
Besides, Europe is, currently, under the same disastrous impacts of Phenomenal Weather Patterns of Tropical Depressions/Disturbances. All these prove that Climate, Weather and Hydrology are prevailing in very different ways. So, uncertainties are eventually apparent, globally speaking, unless more dynamic forecasts are made by the Scientific and TILK/P World.
Refer to MFR Advisories of Saturday 15 February 2020:
\\\WTIO31 FMEE 150649 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 16/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 17/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 17/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 18/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE. MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
120H: 20/02/2020 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT. ///
Keep watch for more.
PKANHYE. Update: 11.31 am MONDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2020.