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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7^th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

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First Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013

in Mauritius and Judicial Enquiry ‘Cover-Up’

(Pl Wait, Uploading is still ON)

The  First Mega/Deadly Flash Flood in the history of Mauritius occurred at mid-day of Saturday 30 March 2013. 152.2 mm of Precipitations Flooded the whole Island, within less than 1.30 hours. The Deadly Impacts were in Port Louis District; namely in the City Centre and in the Western outskirt. Loss of Life reached 11, wherein 6 were drown-dead in the Subway of the Caudan Water Front, 2 others drowned in the underground parking of the Harbour Water Front, 2 were found lifeless around the Poudrière Canal and in Le Pouce Stream, including one senior citizen who died out of heart-attack at Canal Dyot located in the West of Port Louis. That Weather Event of 30 March 2013 is qualified by me as the Most Deadly Flash Flood and the First Mega Disastrous Calamity experienced by the inhabitants and foreigners. It happened under Extreme Conditions and in Exceptional Circumstances (EC-EC). It is well known that 11 ‘innocent citizens’ of Mauritius lost their life, public and household infrastructure were damaged and destroyed, including vehicles which were catapulted topsy-turvy and crashed against each other.

Uploaded:  FRIDAY 30 MARCH 2018.

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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

The International Meteorological Organisation (IMO) was founded in 1873. It changed to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on 23 March 1950. One year later, that is, in 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations Organisation for meteorology (climate and weather), hydrology (water related issues) and geophysical sciences (environmental issues, etc.). Today, there are 191 Countries world-wide which constitute member states of WMO. The latter has classified these in six regions.

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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50^th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5^th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50^th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.

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DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS

In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait for Updates)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MF) have been indicating the formation of Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) and of Cyclogenesis since 26 February 2018. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, so far, not stated about any Low Pressure in its regular Weather Bulletin. It is now that the MMS is mentioning about Tropical Disturbance, at a time when the System has already crossed the Tropical Depression status, 65 km/h (35 Knots) as per JTWC. Lateness by the MMS, in keeping pace with International Centres, still continues. Lessons on the principles of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) are still not being learnt.

This Weather System should be baptized as DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm right now. Besides, a Flood Storm as a Twin System is Highly probable. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is the “Wealth-of-the-Nation”.

 Uploaded: 12.39 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

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EARTHQUAKE: Magnitude 4-5 at 23:25:43hrs, 27 February 2018

 in South West of Mauritius-Failure of Early Warning Systems

(Pl, Wait for Updates soon) 

A significant Earthquake of 4.0 Magnitude at 10 km Depth was recorded by the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center (ESMC) at 19:25:43 UTC (Mauritian time-23.25:43) on Tuesday 27 February 2018. The location indicated is Mauritius Region at Latitude 20.96⁰ South and Longitude 56.54⁰ East; that is at 80 km East of Reunion Island and 97 km South South-West of Mauritius.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), which is mandated to monitor and to launch the Early Warning Systems (EWS), issued a Special Communique at 2.00 am on Wednesday 28 February. It is regrettable to note that the MMS has acted after more than 2 Hours, 34 Minutes and 17 Seconds of the occurrence of the Natural Calamity. This is against the basic principles and spirit of the EWS of the UNISDR, which should be on REAL-TIME Basis.

PKANHYE. 11.55 am WEDNESDAY 28 February 2018.

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91S INVEST-East South-East of Diego Garcia-

Intensifying soon as Cyclonic System

CEBILE Named: Very Rapid Development As Intense Tropical Cyclone 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 of the South Indian Ocean continues to prevail in a dynamic way. Series of Tropical Disturbances, Depressions and Cyclones: AVA, IRVIN, BERGUITTA coupled with Extreme, Heavy and Light Rains are influencing calamitously, since New Year 2018, Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues. There is no doubt that the Weather Patterns of this zone have altered as compared to preceding years. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018.

After the Torrential Rains of 24-25 January 2018 in Mauritius, another Tropical Disturbance has taken birth. 91S INVEST, “NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA”, is in the ‘pipeline’. 

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South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System-

Earlier, Enhanced and Elongated-

Torrential Rain-Another Perfect Prediction

(Pl, Wait, as uploading is still ON) 

Mention has been made in the ‘Weather and Summer Season 2017-2018’: “The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently.”

Furthermore, the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of Cyclones: AVA, IRVIN, BERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands. They also prove that the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is, too, Active and is prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. Besides, it has made an onset Earlier than other seasons. It also seems to have an Elongated lifespan, as its ‘peak is still ahead’, as mentioned in the last article: 'Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST-Mozambique Channel'  

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Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST Revived and

Dissipated in Mozambique Channel on 21 January 2018 

The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear in Southern Indian Ocean during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of cyclones: AVA, IRVIN, BERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands.

On one hand, Intense Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA is cruising South-Westwards at a phenomenal speed of more than 31km/h (17 knots), as indicated by the last Advisories of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). It is now in the South of Madagascar transiting as an Extra-Tropical Cyclone, after influencing destructively Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. On the other side, Tropical Disturbance ‘99S INVEST’ which Failed to intensify, since 15 January 2018, is taking a Re-birth in the Mozambique Channel. This is the ‘Hot Spot’of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin. There is some indication that Cyclogenesis is probable during the coming days.