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South-West Asian Monsoon 2018 Early Onset 

WMO Salutes IMD

   (See Final Update)

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) has officially started as from today Tuesday 29 May 2018. It is interesting to say that the Atmospheric Conditions of the recent weeks have been marked by Heat Waves, Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstones and Dust Storms. These have been Deadly with at least 150 losses of lives, lots of destructions and damages across India. Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in whole Indian Ocean. Like-wise the South-West Monsoon has made an early entry, just like last years’ onset on 30 May 2017, contrary to previous years. The same was mentioned in articles on SAGAR and MEKUNU in this Website. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mentioned the 2018 Monsoon Onset from Kerala region as from 29 May.

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MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (92A INVEST)

Very Rapid Intensification Threatening Directly

Horn of Africa, Socotra, Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

(Final UPDATE below. Pl, be patient. )

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Northern Indian Ocean along the Tropic of Cancer is evolving in an enhanced phase. Hardly has SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (17-21 May 2018) made landfall in Northern Somalia and Ethiopia, 92A INVEST has formed since 18 May 2018. This Tropical Disturbance is highly likely to intensify into a Tropical Depression/Deep Depression very rapidly and be named probably today as MEKUNU. Eventually, it is forecast to be upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm very early. The Atmospheric Conditions in the Zone of Arabian Sea reaching 31⁰ Celsius and of the adjoining landmass (Oman) 40-42 degrees Celsius are conducive for the evolution of a Stronger Storm than the previous one. Horn of Africa, Socotra, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia all fall along the JTWC Forecast Track. So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.

No doubt, this will influence the South-West Asian Monsoon whose onset is Predicted, by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to take place earlier than 01 June 2018.

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SAGAR (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for

Socotra, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula.

(See Updates  below)

While the Tropic of Capricorn of the Southern Indian Ocean is transiting towards the Winter Season, the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Indian Ocean has made a leap into Summer Season 2018. Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Hailstorms, Lightning, Rains and Winds are already showing Deadly Disasters in India since 03 May 2018. These are preceding the South-West Indian Monsoon by about a month earlier than usual. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain Iraq and Iran are experiencing Dust Storms together with 30-44 degrees Celsius of Heat.

A band of Low Pressure near the coast of Somalia and South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea is showing signs of Rapid Development. India Meteorological Department (IMD) identified it since 10 May 2018, while NRL identified it as 91A INVEST yesterday-14 May 2018.

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Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Strong Winds-

Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding

2018 Monsoon in India

Almost whole of India is experiencing Extreme and Deadly Weather Conditions since the beginning of May 2018. Dust Storms transporting sand particles and combination of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and a lot of air pollutants have invaded the Indian Sub-continent from mostly the Arabian Peninsula. Heat Waves, Hailstones, Thunder, Lightning, Rains have caused losses of more than 150 lives, including hundreds of injured people and material damages, have been reported by the local media. Houses have been damaged by Strong Winds, falling trees, service poles, mudslides and Rains. In fact, the 2018 South-West Monsoon System for India is forecast to start as from end of May, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi.

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FLAMBOYAN (98S INVEST)-Near Cocos Island Very Rapid Development into

Tropical Cyclone named by Indonesia BMKG

After Phenomenal and Disastrous Severe Tropical Storm FAKIR (93S INVEST) and dissipation of 96S INVEST, another Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST is in the pipeline. Located in East of Southern Indian Ocean at Latitude 8.0⁰ South and Longitude 94.6⁰ East, it is evolving near Cocos Island. However, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) whose Area of Responsibility is along Longitude 90⁰ East to 160⁰ East has not mentioned any Tropical Disturbance so far. ABOM is also the Regional Special Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone and is mandated to issue Advisories for the its Member States.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr

Nevertheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been identifying a Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST since Thursday 26 April 2018. As at today JTWC has upgraded the Weather System from Low to Medium and High. In its Advisories JTWC has mentioned “This system is expected to reach 35knots within the next 24hours and be numbered TC 21S by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).”

PKANHYE.    Uploaded: 12.12 pm SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7^th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

(Pl, wait for updates)

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

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First Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013

in Mauritius and Judicial Enquiry ‘Cover-Up’

(Pl Wait, Uploading is still ON)

The  First Mega/Deadly Flash Flood in the history of Mauritius occurred at mid-day of Saturday 30 March 2013. 152.2 mm of Precipitations Flooded the whole Island, within less than 1.30 hours. The Deadly Impacts were in Port Louis District; namely in the City Centre and in the Western outskirt. Loss of Life reached 11, wherein 6 were drown-dead in the Subway of the Caudan Water Front, 2 others drowned in the underground parking of the Harbour Water Front, 2 were found lifeless around the Poudrière Canal and in Le Pouce Stream, including one senior citizen who died out of heart-attack at Canal Dyot located in the West of Port Louis. That Weather Event of 30 March 2013 is qualified by me as the Most Deadly Flash Flood and the First Mega Disastrous Calamity experienced by the inhabitants and foreigners. It happened under Extreme Conditions and in Exceptional Circumstances (EC-EC). It is well known that 11 ‘innocent citizens’ of Mauritius lost their life, public and household infrastructure were damaged and destroyed, including vehicles which were catapulted topsy-turvy and crashed against each other.

Uploaded:  FRIDAY 30 MARCH 2018.

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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

The International Meteorological Organisation (IMO) was founded in 1873. It changed to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on 23 March 1950. One year later, that is, in 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations Organisation for meteorology (climate and weather), hydrology (water related issues) and geophysical sciences (environmental issues, etc.). Today, there are 191 Countries world-wide which constitute member states of WMO. The latter has classified these in six regions.

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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50^th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5^th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50^th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.