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VAYU Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Preceding and Delaying S-W Asian Monsoon System 2019

(PL, wait as Uploading is still ON from Mauritius)

The Weather Dynamics prevailing in South-West Asia indicate that Disasters from the Atmosphere, Land and Ocean/Sea are on the way of causing very heavy losses of the ‘Wealth-of-the-Nation’. The Deadly and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI devastated mainly the State of Orissa located in the East of the Indian Subcontinent during 25-28 April 2019. The South-West Asian Monsoon System started with a delay of 7 days, as compared to the Onset date of 01 June 2019. Thus, Heat Waves and Drought were prolonged.

The Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea and adjoining Kerala developed rapidly into a Deep Depression and was named as VAYU (VAA'YU). This name in Hindi is translated into “AIR” for English language.

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SOUTH-WEST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM 2019 DYNAMICS

Cyclone Formation and Monsoon Onset concurrent in KERALA Zone 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Delhi released the Onset of the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) on 15 April 2019. The departure is normally forecast as from the Andaman Sea on 20 May 2019. But, the Weather System has made an Early entry on 18 May 2019. 25 May marks the habitual advancement on Sri Lanka and it touches the Southern India-Kerala on 1^st June each year. IMD mentions in its “‘Summary of the Forecast Assessment Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal.” 

However, it is worthwhile noting that Thunderstorms: Lightning, Rain, Heat Waves, Squalls and Hails have been showering in various parts of India since 06 April 2019. Besides, Phenomenal and Disastrous Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI (FONI) has already triggered a ‘Weather Model’ in this Zone. Given, that Weather Systems: Cyclones, Floods, Heat Waves, etc. have now been observed to be more Frequent and Intense than usual, the Monsoon 2019 seems to be causing Impacts in this same pattern coupled with an Early arrival. So, the population of India, including those of the adjoining states, are requested to stay alert throughout the season. Losses of life, of livelihood and of economic resources, are therefore subject to Wise Disaster Management by all stakeholders.

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FANI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Heralded by Observation of Clouds from the Ground

And from Cyclogenesis Outlook by India Meteorological Department.

   

PABUK Cyclonic Storm took birth at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea and during the Winter Season. After intensifying it moved towards Thailand, Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal. Heavy Rains and Storm Surge affected Andaman Islands, but PABUK stayed in the Sea of Bay of Bengal.

FANI Cyclonic Storm formed on 19 April 2019. India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned this in its Cyclogenesis Outlook for period 19 to 25 April 2019. However, the second week of the Outlook 26 April to 02 May did not do so. It is understandable that the Probability of Cyclone formation was weak, that is 33%. This period is also the transition from Winter Season to Summer Monsoon which is due one month ahead.

Yet, the Observation of Clouds made from the Ground of Arrah, Bihar, India clearly indicated the oncoming Cyclonic System. Refer to the picture taken at 6.33 pm Friday 19 April 2019. This crystalizes the concept that Scientific Forecasts are based on Numerical Models. But, it is also known that they are not 100% Perfect. However, Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) has been 100% Perfect. The Formation of FANI was indicated by Mother Nature since Friday 19 April 2019-6 days beforehand. It should also be noted that the application of Traditional Knowledge (TILK/P) is always complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. This has been approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland. Read various articles in this Website.

FANI is forecast to intensify into Very Severe Tropical Storm by Monday 29 April until 02 May 2019. This Weather System is highly likely to affect seriously Sri Lanka and and Eastern zone of India, especially Tamil Nadu, Puduchery and Andra Pradesh regions. So, the populations of these zones are STRONGLY requested to get prepared immediately and act according to the Warnings published by IMD.

Refer to the Advisories launched by IMD since 25 April (etd).

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KENNETH-13th and LORNA-14^th Cyclones

For South Indian Ocean furthering Record

The Southern Indian Ocean is under the threat of another Twin Systems during Season 2018-2019. Besides, the passing of a series of Cyclones, the populations of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion have experienced dangerous Floods since October 2018 until April 2019.

The Tropical Depression in the North of Madagascar has been named as KENNETH (13th) by Météo-Madagascar this afternoon 23 April 2019. Moreover, another Tropical Depression is highly likely to take birth in the East of Diego Garcia. This one will sure be named as LORNA (14th) by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) in due course. Refer to the Weather Bulletin of the MMS below.

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JOANINHA Marking a Record is another

Threat for Rodrigues (C Warning Class 4 Waived), Mauritius (Heavy Swells Warning), Reunion and Northern Madagascar saved.

The Weather Dynamics of Season 2018-2019 for the South Indian Ocean confirm the initial understanding that Cyclones and Floods will strike relentlessly this zone. IDAI Tropical Cyclone has devastated, mainly, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, including hundreds of losses of life and economic assets last week. Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH which evolved, since 17 March 2019, mostly in the North-West of Australia, has luckily not reached in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS).

Now the Low Pressure located in the North of Mauritius has evolved very rapidly into a Tropical Disturbance and a Tropical Depression. It has ripened into a Cyclonic System. It has been baptised as Moderate Tropical Storm JOANINHA by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. Rodrigues Island (territory of Mauritius) appears to experience another Direct Threat in the few coming days. The Forecast Tracks by the MMS and by Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) show this dangerous potential of JOANINHA. Further intensifications are also Forecast within 24 hours.

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 World Meteorological Day 23rd March 2019-

Theme "The SUN, the EARTH and the WEATHER".          

(Keep Watch for update soon)

Transcript from Video message of WMO Secretary General-Petteri Taalas:

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HALEH Intense Tropical Cyclone

9^th Cyclone and Weather Systems visiting South Indian Ocean

Within 3-4 Months’ Time of Season 2018-2019.

HALEH has been baptised by the Mauritius Meteorological Services on Saturday 02 March 2019. As usual, the Weather System has evolved rapidly into Intense Tropical Cyclone. It also indicates the Dynamics of the Season 2018-2019 Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Indian Ocean Basin has released its Advisories as follows:

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FUNANI and GELENA Moderate Tropical Twin Storms

Trigger Hazardous Situations for Mascarene Islands

Cyclone Warning Class 2 for Rodrigues.

Mention has been made regarding the formation on 05 November 2018 and its eventual naming as Moderate Tropical Storm ALCIDE on two days later, that there are many indication for a Dynamic Summer Season 2018-2019 for the South Indian Ocean. BOUCHERA was named on 10 November 2018 and KENANGA was baptized on 15 December 2018 and both escaped from the region of Indonesia. CILIDA was named on 19 December 2018. DESMOND started its life on 20 January 2019 and EKETSANG was born on 24 January 2019, both being named by Météo-Madagascar.

FUNANI Moderate Tropical Storm was named by Mauritius Meteorological Services on 05 February 2019 and Météo-Madagascar baptized GELENA Moderate Tropical Storm on same day. Both Twins have intensified into Severe Tropical Storms and appear to be threats for Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion, with a slight probability for Madagascar. Rodrigues was already under Cyclone Warning Class I on 05 February and the Warning has been upgraded to Class II today. See the picture of the 'Monstrous Octopus-Like' FUNANI.

All these 8 Weather Systems within a short span and their very rapid evolution crystalize the Dynamic Season for South Indian Ocean. Besides, the application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) already gave these indications.

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Pravasi Bharatiya Divas Convention 2019 Varanasi-World Oldest City

Hon. Pravind Jugnauth Prime Minister of Mauritius as Chief Guest

Remarkable Meeting of Global Indian Diaspora also Venerating Kumbh

The 15^th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas Convention of 2019 has been programmed for 21-23 January 2019 at the Trade Facilitation and Craft Museum also known as Deen Dayal Hastkala Sunkul Centre. Located at Lalpur, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India all facilitation has been arranged under the responsibility of the Ministry of External Affairs, Delhi for welcoming the Indian Diaspora. The theme of this year is the"Role of Indian Diaspora in building New India".

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PABUK Cyclonic Storm-

Thailand, Andaman, Myanmar and Bay of Bengal

Another Winter Phenomenon

The North-Western Pacific Zone and the Tropic of Cancer are still giving birth to Storms despite the Winter Season 2019. The Deep Depression which formed at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea has intensified and has been named as a PABUK Cyclonic Storm. It has moved towards Thailand. Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal are also on its track.

India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Asia, issued its Advisories as mentioned below.