Herold Tropical Cyclone 8th Cyclone for Season 2019-2020 Indian Ocean Extreme Conditions

Herold Tropical Cyclone

8th Cyclone for Season 2019-2020 Indian Ocean

and Extreme Conditions

 

 

The Summer Season 2019-2020 continues to evolve as stated in previous articles: “Eddies and Vortices have invaded the Troposphere along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Capricorn since a few years. These Systems often herald the oncoming Weather, Climate and Hydrology parameters of the particular zone.” The pattern is the same as at date. The Month of March is usually the peak period as far as Floods/ Heavy Rainfalls and Cyclones are concerned, for this zone of the South Indian Ocean.

 

After the series of AMBALI, BELNA, CALVINIA, DIANE, ESAMI, FRANCISCO and GABEKILE Cyclones, the 8th one is in the pipeline. There are bands of Low Pressures which are currently prevailing along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Monsoon Troughs in the Tropic of Capricorn. Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the South-West Indian Ocean, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) are forecasting a weak cyclogenesis or uncertainties for this area.

 

However, Observations of the Clouds and of the Atmosphere made from the Grounds of Mauritius and coupled with the application of Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) indicate the formation of Extreme Rainfalls and Extreme Cyclone within a week or a fortnight. Moreover, the birth of HEROLD Tropical Cyclone is highly likely to take about a week or so. The Weather System most probably will start from the northern region of Madagascar. It is Predicted to track towards Mauritius and Rodrigues off Reunion Island. It should also be remembered that March is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon Season (SWIOMS).

Refer to the pictures above abd shot last evening of Sunday 01 March 2020.

 

Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) mentions today 10-30% cyclogenesis for the Macarene Islands- Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues, as from Wednesday 03 March:

 

<<< A partir de mercredi, le risque de formation d'une tempête tropicale modérée devient faible au Nord-Ouest des Mascareignes…(Faible: 10% à 30%).>>>

 

 

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentioned in its Advisories of 01 March 2020 of a Low Probability Disturbance 91 S INVEST (etd):

 

{{{ABIO10 PGTW 011800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZMAR2020//

RMKS/

 

2. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

     

  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011331Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 91S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE 91S WILL REMAIN ON A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH MARGINAL STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007

MB...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.}}}                                          

 

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has stated in its Weather Bulletins since 26 February 2020 about Instability caused by the presence of a Low Pressure in the North of Mauritius. (etd):

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 LT ON WEDNESDAY 26 FEBRUARY 2020.

GENERAL SITUATION :

Rather active clouds are influencing the weather over our region.

A low pressure developing far to the North-West of Mauritius, maintains the instability over the island.]]]

 

The MMS records of 26 February read as follows-

St Felix-78.6 mm; Plaisance-71.3 mm; Mon Bois- 25.4 mm; Pte Cannonier-21 mm; Chitrakoot-10.9 mm and Champ de Mars-13.2 mm, mainly.

 

Wind-50kph ; Temp--300 C ; Humidity-75-98%..

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 05H00 ON FRIDAY 28 FEBRUARY 2020.

GENERAL SITUATION:

The low pressure zone evolving to the North-West of Mauritius is increasing atmospheric instability over our region and is favoring active cloud formation which are influencing the local weather.]]]

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 ON MONDAY 02 MARCH 2020. 

GENERAL SITUATION :

The low-pressure area evolving to the North of Mauritius is causing unstable atmospheric conditions over our region and is favoring formation of clouds which are influencing the local weather.]]]

 

The MMS states in its Weather Bulletin of 11.30 am Monday 02 March 2020 that the Low Pressure has intensified as a Tropical Disturbance:

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H30 ON MONDAY 02 MARCH 2020.

GENERAL SITUATION:

The low pressure area to the north of Mauritius has intensified into a tropical disturbance. It is causing unstable atmospheric conditions, favouring formation of rather active clouds over our region...Movement- South South East 10 km/h ]]]

 

Keep Watch for Updates.

 

PKANHYE.        12.30 pm MONDAY 02 MARCH 2020.

 

 

Heavy and Extreme Rainfalls

 

The Weather Predictions mentioned at the outset, on 02 March 2020, prove vividly, that Extreme Rainfalls are prevailing. Mauritius has been under the stress of a series of Weather Variability and Dynamics. Light Rains have showered almost everyday as from the night of Monday 02 March 2020. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued, on Saturday 07 March, a Heavy Rain Warning at 13.30 hours valid until 22.00 hours. Thunder was heard at 4.10 pm. Rainfalls recorded by the MMS varied between 54.4 mm and 31.3 mm, mainly. The Warning was waived at 19 hours.

                                   

Another Heavy Rain Warning was released by the MMS at 8.30 am Sunday 08 March, valid until 22.00 hours. Belle Mare recorded 115 mm; St. Felix-75.8 mm; Beau Songes-58.5 mm; Le Morne-57 mm, mainly. The Warning was waived at 19.00 hours.

 

At 23.52 hours on the night of Saturday 07 March a HALO around the MOON was spotted. This indicates both scientifically and Traditionally that Heavy Rains are expected during the coming hours or days. The HALO is the deflection of the Moon’s rays on the Ice Crystals suspended in the Clouds. See photograph.

 

 

Rainfalls varied from light to above average on Monday 09 March: Mon Bois- 75.6 mm; Mare Aux Vacoas-54.6 mm; Pointe Aux Canoniers-46.8 mm; Plaisance Airport- 38.4 mm, at the maximum.

 

The MMS representative explained to the notional Television Station that a Heavy Rain Warning will be issued for 4.00 am Tuesday 10 March, which will be valid up to 16.00 hours same day. It was done as stated. All schools were kept closed for that day. However, the Rainfalls recorded for Tuesday 10 March were 71 mm and 54 mm mainly and the rest of the regions were rather moderate: 36.8mm to 18.9 mm. All schools were kept closed.

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H30 ON MONDAY 09 MARCH 2020. 

GENERAL SITUATION :

(A) A heavy rain warning will be in force in Mauritius, valid as from 04h00  tomorrow Tuesday 10 March 2020 up to 16h00 in the afternoon.

(B) The atmospheric conditions remain very moist and unstable, thus favouring the formation of active clouds over our region. Moreover, the combined effect of a low-pressure area far to the North-West of Mauritius and an anticyclone to the South of the Mascarenes is causing a windy weather over our region.]]]

 

Pravind Kumar Jagnauth, Prime Minister of Mauritius announced at a press conference on Monday 09 March 2020, regarding the celebrations of the 52nd Independence and 28th Republic Day due for 12 March 2020. He stated that the celebrations at the schools, colleges and universities which were usually made the eve- on 11 March would be cancelled, as all institutions would be kept closed.

 

Furthermore, the celebrations scheduled at Champs de Mars at national level were also cancelled. Only a Protocolaire function without any garden party thereof would take place at the State House of Reduit. The Event was carried out at Reduit at 12.05 pm on Thursday 12 March 2020. It was very remarkable that there were Thunder, Lightning and Heavy Rains just at the moment. The quadri-colour National Flag ceremony was raised with the National Anthem in such Weather Conditions. While the policy makers and international diplomats were inside the Historical Colonial building, the police officers men and women and the police orchestra were drenched in the Heavy Rains.

 

The MMS released another Heavy Rain Warning at 12.30 pm valid up to 19.00 hours for Thursday 12 March. At 13.00 hours the Rainfalls reorded were as follows: Moka-91.2 mm; Beau Bassin-90.2 mm; Rose Belle 85.8 mm; Riche en Eau-66.8 mm, on the heaviest side. The Warning was again waived at 19.00 pm. It is worthwhile to mention that tremendous Thunder, Lightning and Rains occurred during the night of Thursday 12 March.

 

The MMS published another Heavy Rain Warning at 4.15 am on Friday 13 March 2020. As at 10.00 hours the Rainfalls noted in past 24 hrs are as follows: Queen Victoria-126.4 mm; Plaisance Airport-116.3 mm; Riche en Eau-97.2 mm; Belle Mare-94.8 mm; Moka-87.4 mm; Beau Bassin-68.2 mm, Port Louis-61.6 mm, mainly.


It is also worthwhile to mention that Reunion Island registered 153.2 mm at Le Baril; St Benoit-33.1 mm and Le Colosse-24.2 mm.


NB: The Tropical Disturbance mentioned above had dissipated, but has revived during the last days. As at today, it has intensified into a Tropical Depression and a rapid evolution is forecast.


Keep Watch for More soon.


PKANHYE.                         Updated: 15.40 hrs FRIDAY 13 MARCH 2020.


HEROLD CYCLONE in Formation

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentioned in its Advisories of 01 March 2020 that Tropical Disturbance 91 S INVEST has LOW probability of cyclogenesis. It stated on 04 March, that:


{{{THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 56.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.}}}


However, today Friday 13 March 2020, JTWC mentions High probability:


{{{THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 14.0S 52.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 52.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130002Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF  THE SYSTEM...

INVEST 91S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.}}}


Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the South-West Indian Ocean, has also published its Advisories on 12 March 2020. Mention has been made that the Tropical Depression is highly likely to intensify into Moderate Tropical Storm as from 13 March 2020 and become Severe Storm, Tropical Cyclone and Intense Tropical Cyclone by Sunday 15 March 2020. See below.

    

<<<1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 10

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2020 :


1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 13/03/2020 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

 

24H: 13/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE


36H: 14/03/2020 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE


48H: 14/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

 

60H: 15/03/2020 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL


72H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.>>>



The MMS has also released its Forecast Track on 13 March 2020.

Keep Watch for more. 


PKANHYE.     Updated: 22.40 hours FRIDAY 13 MARCH 2020.

COMMENTS

You should have, no doubt, taken a memorable note on the fact that application of Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) has a considerable Edge on Scientific Forecast on the Extreme Rainfalls as Predicted since 02 March 2020. The Heavy Rains and Extreme Rains which showered in Mauritius and Reunion during the last week prove that TILK/P is a ‘Life-Saving-Tool’ in Early Warning Systems. So, this has been a 100% Perfect Prediction.


Extreme Cyclone has also been Predicted since 02 March 2020, as this too is also in the pipeline. HEROLD Moderate Tropical Storm by Météo Madagascar at 22.00 hrs on Saturday 14 March. It intensified as Severe Tropical Storm at 4.00 am this Sunday 15 March. HEROLD stayed almost stationary since then. It was 760 km South-West of Agalega and 860 km North-West of Mauritius. As at 16.00 hours this afternoon, the Weather System has started moving towards the East South-East at 9 kph near 750 km SW of Agalega and 800 km NW of Mauritius.


It has also been mentioned since 02 March 2020, that “The Weather System most probably will start from the northern region of Madagascar. It is Predicted to track towards Mauritius and Rodrigues off Reunion Island.” See above. So, just follow this pathway.



Météo Madagascar

///Bulletin cyclonique spécial du 13 Mars 2020 à 19 heures locales et Vigilances forte houle et vent fort.

par scom | ven, 03/13/2020 - 20:27



  • La Dépression Tropicale N°10 de la saison est positionnée à environ 200 Km au Nord-Est d’Antalaha à 19 heures locales. Le vent moyen est estimé à 55 Km/h avec des rafales de 75 Km/h. Elle se déplace vers le Sud à raison de 11 Km/h.
  • La bande périphérique touche le littoral de SAVA en apportant de cumul de pluie localement abondant.
  • De vent de l'ordre de 50 Km/h et des vagues de 2,5 à 3,2 m pouuraient persister le long des côtes Centre et Nord-est.
  • Les populations sont donc priées de rester vigilantes face au risque de stagnation des eaux et la sortie en mer est déconseillée jusqu'à écartement de danger.
  • Une poursuite d’intensification est en cours. Ainsi, le stade de Tempête pourrait être atteint cette nuit. Une trajectoire orientée vers les îles Mascareignes est prévue à compter de demain 14 mars 2020 après-midi, laissant ainsi Madagascar à l’abri de danger potentiel. La sortie en mer est déconseillée entre Sambava et Brickaville car le vent se renforce.    Il n’y a pas d’Alerte Cyclonique à Madagascar.///

/// Bulletin cyclonique spécial du 14 Mars 2020 à 07 heures locales

par scom | sam, 03/14/2020 - 07:35



A 06 heures locales ; le centre de la tempête tropicale était positionné à 90 km à l’Est d’Antalaha. Le vent moyen monte a 80 km/h avec des rafales de 115 km/h. Elle se déplace vers le Sud à 6 km/h. D’après la prévision, HEROLD poursuivra son cap très lentement en longeant au large de Masoala. Pour tenir compte à ce changement de la situation, le District d’Antalaha et ceux de la région Analanjirofo sont placés en Alerte jaune car les fortes pluies et des vents forts y persisteront durant la journée.. La sortie en mer est déconseillée entre Antsiranana et Brickaville.///




Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS)

[[[Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius

WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H45 ON SATURDAY 14 MARCH 2020.


GENERAL SITUATION :

(A): A light and warm airstream is flowing over our region.

(B): On the other hand, the tropical depression evolving to the North-East of Madagascar has intensified in a moderate tropical storm and was named Herold by the Meteorological Sevices of Madagascar at 22h00 last night.

At 04h00 this morning, the moderate tropical storm Herold was centered in latitude 15.0 degrees South and longitude 51.5 degrees East, that is at about 850 km to the North-West of Mauritius.

It is currently quasi-stationary.]]]



[[[Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

Sun, Mar 15, 2020

A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius.
A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius.

First cyclone Bulletin for Mauritius issued at 0410 Hours on Sunday 15 March 2020.

Over the night, moderate tropical storm HEROLD has intensified into a severe tropical storm. At 0400 hours this morning, Herold was centered at about 860 km to the north-west of Mauritius, that is, in latitude 15.2 degrees south and longitude 51.3 degrees east. Herold has been describing a loop around this point over the last 18 hours. However, it is expected to start moving slowly towards the south during the day. Thereafter, it will accelerate along an east-south-easterly track while intensifying further. On this expected trajectory Herold is likely to represent a potential threat to Mauritius as from Monday afternoon.

A cyclone warning Class I is in force in Mauritius.
The public in Mauritius is advised to take all precautions.

Since Herold is evolving far from the Mascarenes and off the north-east coast of Madagascar at the moment, weather at Mauritius will not be influenced by the storm at first. But a marked deterioration is expected as from Monday, the weather becoming rapidly cloudy with passing showers. The showers are likely to become moderate to heavy with thunderstorms by late afternoon. Further deterioration is expected on Monday night.

The wind will blow from the south-east at a speed of 15 km/h at first, strengthening rapidly on Monday afternoon. Gusts will then gradually increase and may reach 100 km/h by Monday night. In the event of a slight recurvature of the track towards the south-east, gusts may exceed 100 km/h. 

The sea will be moderate at first, becoming rapidly rough to very rough with northerly swells as from Monday afternoon.
]]]



Keep Watch for updates.


PKANHYE.          19.10 hrs. SUNDAY 15 MARCH 2020.

Satellite Animation